Who better than TVG’s Gabby Gaudet to talk us through the happenings opening weekend at Keeneland? She also sticks around to give her thoughts on the Friday and Saturday Stakes. Contest Player Ernie Hey Jr. is here to help us preview the Keeneland contests this weekend.
Prefer to read it? See below.
***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains errors and inaccuracies. ***
Hey everybody. Peter Thomas foreign, a towel here, and we’ve got a great show for you today, but before we get into it, just want to give you a word from the sponsor of this new podcast, Keelan select some great promos. You want to be aware of heading into this meat. There’s a signup bonus. If you bet $300 in the first 30 days, you will receive $100 back into your account and new for spring.
If you sign up for Keelan select now and bet, 500 on Caitlin racing during the spring meet you’ll receive $50 back into your account. Bet another 500 and get another 50 back maximum of 1000 wagered on the Caitlin live meets still. That’s a nice kickback and a really. Good deal. We want you to use the promo code ITM 19 to sign up today.
Again, make sure you use the promo code ITM 19. When you sign up for Caitlin select for more information, go to Keeneland. select.com.
Hello and welcome to the Keelan select players podcast. This is show number three. I’m your host, Peter Thomas foreign, a towel back with you to look at Friday’s races at Keelan and have a very special visit with our old pal. Gabby God debt, who will be by in just a minute. But before we get to Gabby, I want to bring in the co-host of this program.
You know him, you love him. He spends an awful lot of time in Lex Vegas. Right now. He’s on the planet, Texas. He’s the people’s champion. Jonathan Kenshin J K. How are you? PTF, I’m ready to get back. I, I was looking at the weather today. It’s going to be beautiful on Saturday. Um, it’s supposed to rain kind of late night, Saturday, early morning, Sunday, but I think for the grade one gamble, one of my favorite content that’s out there.
I think we’re going to be fine. Um, to a certain extent, you know, again, it comes off the grass. That’s not going to bother the kid who doesn’t bet who doesn’t bet the grass in the NHC. So that’ll be fine with me. Um, but, uh, always a beautiful time when you’re out in Lexington. Uh, stuff started to bloom a little bit.
I think your allergies probably caught you a little bit, but uh, beautiful, beautiful place. Looking forward to going to see our buddy, uh, Sean tool at Windstar. On Monday, I’m gonna take Duke Mattise over there. There’s no jockeys for me. Yell at you should be fine with it. With the equine friends might be some jockeys around.
He better be careful. Get, get, get ready to, uh, get ready to muzzle him. It could, it could get ugly over there. That’s funny what you mentioned. I did mention that on the other show. I didn’t realize the, I never thought I had allergies and I’m reconsidering that after the trip last weekend to Lexington, but I’ll tell you what it’s so.
Beautiful. It’s so much fun at Keene Linda and in and around the town that, uh, a little bit of a hay fever is a very small price to pay when it comes to, uh, when it comes to visiting Lexington, it’s something all HorsePlayers should be getting involved in. And I’m envious that you get to do it, but not that envious because I’m going to have a pretty fun weekend at Oaklawn, but my heart will be with you in Lexington.
JK, give us a rundown on the contest options real quick. A little bit later in the show actually should have mentioned this up top. We’ve got a little preview of the contest through the lens of one of the qualifying players, Ernest hay, Jr. Who is a name I’ve seen on leaderboards a whole bunch. And I’m looking forward to meeting in person, but give us the rundown on the contest this weekend.
Yeah, you talked long enough to, I can look up to, to look at the Saturday contest. I’m not gonna be able to be there. Austin has a hock, a soccer game. So Caitlin’s a Saturday contest of $400 contest, lots of, uh, NAC seats, breeders’ cup betting, challenge seats. Uh, that’s a kind of a, more of a, you know, it’s a, it’s a lower buy-in obviously than what’s going to happen.
On the grade one gamble on Sunday, which the $3,000 live bank are all contest. A thousand dollars goes to the prize pool. Jim Goodman does an amazing job. Always gives a really fun, cool gift. I’ve gotten some bags, some binders, some wineglasses, some, some whiskey like tumblers, and it’s always something cool that Jim does for you.
When you show up for the grade one gamble, uh, it really is actually a grade one event. And, um, it’s got a really interesting dynamic in the last two races. Some people don’t like it. I absolutely do. You have to bet half of your bankroll in one of the last two races, no matter what, uh, your bankroll is, Tommy mass has famously had like 20,000 before the rule was changed and he just sat on it and took the penalty, still won the contest.
Now it’s changed a little bit where you got to kind of find a way to get that done, but it’s one of my favorite contests. Um, Jim does a phenomenal job. And so I’m looking forward to participating in that, uh, one day contest on Sunday army masses. Nobody’s beaten the amount of success he’s had in these keenly conscious any chance he, uh, makes it for, for career wins at Kayla this weekend.
JK. The dude’s nuts. He’s got, he’s got one, two entries, right? And then like he’s selling one for 10 for 2,900 because he doesn’t want to play with too. He just wants to play one. You think the guy that can’t lose when he’s playing in a contest from the green room? We want as many bullets as possible, especially the way he plays and what we mean by that.
They call the man the hammer for a reason. He’ll take his whole bankroll and bedded on one horse. So if he has two entries, it’s pretty simple, you know, your bet. The one. And if that you have a chance to even be more aggressive, if that doesn’t work out, boom, you’ve got another chance to do so later, but I guess with minimums, that things, he feels like it’s more trouble than it’s worth.
Really. I think this is just another example of how quirky and interesting HorsePlayers are. Absolutely. I have to give a quick. Quick, shout out. I don’t know. We really were off to timewise last year in the fall, the fall contest, same, same structure. Uh, I hit a race where a 20 to one shot kind of rain. And I just kind of picked up some pieces and moved up the leaderboard, uh, as the, the, the, the horse crossed the wire.
Tommy massive stands up in the middle of the green room, which has a lot of serious players in there, but it’s not. Quiet, you can still have fun and carry on. And he says, ladies and gentlemen, we have a new leader and he’s talking about himself and he never looked back. He’s had an amazing run of success.
I’ll put it this way. I wouldn’t bet against him. I wouldn’t bet against you either. Jay Kayla’s you say there’s a couple of elements in that contest that play to your style. What’s your advice to people looking to have to bet half their bank roll for the first time in Caitlin’s grade one gamble on Sunday.
There’s safer ways to do it, then you think, right? You can, you can bet a horse to show you can, you can, uh, you can bet some, some really large wind play show bats like that, you know, and things that you really like. There’s a lot of different ways around it. So don’t let that be your to turn. And it’s kind of fun, man.
It’s, it’s, it’s fun to know that everyone’s firing the leaderboard can kind of get a little bit, can, you know, there could be some people hitting really big. But the other thing that happens is there’s people that lose big too. So there’s a lot of movement late in the contest. It’s a lot of fun. And so, uh, and, and, and Jim has a horse player, so he gives you better bull races.
And the last two, he doesn’t give you. You know, 16 horse, 10 claimers with a bunch of guys that you’ve never heard of training. He gives you a big races, big field, but, but, but he’s gonna give you one dirt, one turf. I think he’s gonna be one dirt, one turf allowance race. Maybe there’s a, the second to last is sometimes the stakes.
So he does a good job in setting you up there. I wouldn’t don’t let that be the deterrent. And you can pretty much walk up, I think for both those contests, but I wouldn’t take too much advantage of that. Be careful with seating. Um, so just even if you don’t want to commit to it, just send Jim an email or, or, or there’s a way to find him, you know, he’s on Twitter just to let them know, like, Hey, I’m going to play and I’ll see you on Sunday morning.
Um, let him hold the spot for you. Yeah, at least he knows you’re coming. Yeah. I definitely recommend doing that. Hopefully we can, uh, see the same kind of big numbers we’ve seen in past years and this event, I’m sure we will. And we’ll come back with a recap, uh, on these Caitlin specific shows. Why not have the winter on, Hey, maybe I have the winter on already.
What do you think about that? Okay. Well, I sure hope so. I feel like, I feel like I haven’t, I feel like I forgot how to win a contest. When was the last time I won a contest, Pete, actually, do you remember? Yeah. You won one of those Santa and need a $500 contest last year. Yeah, that was a nice day. I remember that Austin was with me, had the big check.
He told me that the other day we were somewhere. He said, dad, remember that time you got a big check only barely. I do remember J K cause I, I think that was the last time you bought around a drinks.
Oh, all right. Enough silliness. We have a very busy show and it all starts right here. And now I’d like to welcome to the keen Lynn select players podcast. Somebody we’re a big fan of we’ve had around the other show. We got to work with her on the world horseplayer store and very. Happy to have her on the new show.
She’s got an expanded role on the Keelan simulcast feed. She is a TV. Jeez, Gabby GoDaddy, Gabby. I’m doing well, Pete, thank you so much. It’s fun to finally get to catch up with you. It’s definitely been a while. It’s been too long and, uh, we’ve all had these crazy things going on for you. You’ve got this terrific new TV home and this super exciting assignment at Keeneland.
How has the meat been going so far? How are you enjoying this new role? I feel like I can finally catch my breath today. This was the first day that I feel that I could confidently say that. Um, it’s been amazing. It’s been a little bit of a whirlwind because I just got back from Florida on. I believe it might’ve been last Monday or Tuesday, it’s all blending together.
Um, and then Scott Hazelton and I had to do the post position to offer the bluegrass on Wednesday. So since then it’s been, you know, the meat bluegrass weekend covering sales, both the preview show on Monday and then the sale itself on Tuesday. Um, and then we’re continuing on today and then throughout the weekend.
So, um, yeah, it’s been. Phenomenal though. I mean, it was my first bluegrass that I’ve ever experienced last Saturday. And not only was the crowd spectacular, but the cards, the handle, everything that was going on on Saturday, it was just a pleasure to be part of it. It was a pretty special day at the races.
I was fortunate to be there. JK was there Friday. We did our kickoff event at Bell’s Friday night with Caitlin by Saturday. He was God. I was still there soaking up that amazing atmosphere from a racing perspective. Gabby, what stands out to you the most? Looking back at opening weekend at Keeneland. Oh, there were so many performances.
Pete. I could probably talk all day about it, but obviously, and the blue grass with coma, um, he ran fantastic. There’s nothing to take and nothing to say negatively about that performance. Um, I know George Weaver had had some trepidation going into the race in terms of distance limitations, but it seemed like he handled himself just fine.
Um, out of the race, I think you really need to consider a horse like win-win win. Who looked like he was gonna. Finished, absolutely nowhere, uh, the quarter pole, um, and considering how the main track has played and. But essentially played opening week. It had a very strong forward flow to it. So, um, you kind of have to really consider win-win win out of the bluegrass and even undercard races on Sunday, the stakes races, the Beaumont fancy dress party, the Appalachian, um, was Lee ward saying he’s probably going to go to the NFL.
English guineas with the Mac on bullets. So, um, we even saw on the undercard some really impressive first time starters or maiden winners, I should say, including a trip at heart for Todd Pletcher. So, you know, I think once I sit down and go back to last week and, uh, analyze everything, I think, um, you know, it’s going to be.
They set the platform, they set the stage, I think for the second half of the year, you know, I think we’re going to see some spectacular performances coming out of the Caitlin spring meet and that have a presence for the rest of the year. It is interesting sort of an unexpected thing that Caitlin’s become.
It’s always had this important place in the racing calendar, but now there’s this funny little aspect where it’s this spring board to Royal ask it and that amazing meeting over there. Have you heard any other. Scuttlebutt of horses who may be taking some shots when it comes to the big Ascott meeting this year, lady Pauline, she of course, is the half sister to lady a really, uh, she won a maiden special ed, two year old maiden race for Wesley ward and she was absolutely sensational.
So we’re likely going to see her go across the pond and then also a bulletin. Uh, the winner of the turf sprint steak on opening day for Todd Pletcher and Windstar, we could for sure see him at rural Alaska, too. It is funny how it has created, you know, as you said, it’s kind of become a platform now to go to Royal Ascot and it’s strengthened really, uh, I think that you knighted States his presence, um, at the Royal Ascot meeting.
Lady Pauline and interesting point that my friend Rob dove, one of the top 10 pro punters in the UK today made about her was how precocious she was being a may fol with lady Orillia being a January fall. Maybe that makes more sense. I wonder in your experience around horses. When you’re talking about two year olds does being a late fall mean there’s more of a chance for more of a scope for improvement, or does it not matter as much as it would seem to, to me as an outsider, the difference between a January foal and a may fall.
I think it makes a huge difference because if you’re really doing the math and you’re thinking about it, I mean these two year olds are essentially running an April. If they’re a may fold, they’re technically still a yearly. And the thing even prior to them actually racing right, is the preparation. And a lot of these horses start.
Getting prepared and December, I mean, I’ve seen Wesley start preparing some of his two-year-olds, um, down in Florida in December to get them ready for the spring. So these horses are very immature, especially late fools. Um, so yeah, I think you definitely have to consider that. And the funny thing was lady Pauline, Wesley ward admitted this.
Before the race and after the race, that lady Pauline was more precocious than lady really ever was, um, prior to their first start. So he really had high hopes from her, from the get go before he even really got around her and started preparing her for her first start. I don’t know where she trained up until her getting.
Into Wesley Ward’s care. Um, but he said that, you know, she’s very, very precocious. And the interesting thing that Johnny Velazquez said to me was that she was super professional. It was almost like she shut off in the post braid and he didn’t think that she was going to have the gait speed that the words said that she had.
And then he said, as soon as the Gates open, she just shot out of the gate like a rocket. Um, so not only, you know, her. Her physical build. She was very mature, very athletic looking, very strong. But I think the point to take out of both talking to Wesley and, um, Johnny is how mentally prepared she was.
That’s terrific information. And unfortunately, the queen Mary, where I believe she’s pointing, isn’t one of the places where they have a lot of future bedding. We do have a lot of UK and Irish listeners who tune into the show who might have the opportunity to bet her. Over there, but I don’t think there will be too much action at this stage, but it’s something to take a look for for listeners over there, if the market’s come up.
Cause it certainly was an impressive performance at one that would seem to portend good things moving forward. We’ll be talking a lot about ask it on the other show, the end, the money players podcast as we get closer. But thank you Gabby for that insight. JK, do you have one. For Gabby generally, before we dive into some of these races with her on Friday and Saturday, w we often like to try to talk about, uh, some lifestyle things on here on the show as often as possible.
Gabby. And I actually ran into each other at dinner. Uh, I don’t remember if it was last week at some point every Thursday night, or maybe it was Thursday night. We had the thing Friday night, we went to a place called the Xer and it was really good. How was your day? I’ve never been there before as much selling out in Lexington.
I enjoyed it. Uh, how was it over there at your table? It was fantastic. It was so funny, Pete, because I work in and I’m with a lot of, uh, people from TBG and I walk in and I see JK sitting down at a huge table and my table was huge too. And I think we were the only, and the restaurant that, that thought you got stood up for a second.
It was, yeah, it was kind of a funny scenario, but my food was great. Um, there’s so many good restaurants here in Lexington. I went to a place called Deauville last weekend. Uh, French cuisine. It was excellent. Um, and Tony’s is always a good place to check out to both with the steak and the crab cakes. I’m.
I judge crab cakes really, really hard, obviously being a Marylander. So, um, they stood up for crack because I love them, but that’s one of those things where I feel like I’m not, you know, my opinion on, you know, ask me about lasagna. I’ll talk your ear off. But somebody asks me about crab cakes. I’m not as confident, but I wanted to say that those Tony’s ones were, uh, were top notch and hearing it from the Maryland girl.
That is definitely a that’s. As high as praise gets, I would think. They are really good. And Deauville has a really cool, happy hour, by the way. I don’t know if you’ve been there yet Gabby for that, but they’ve got like really cool. Like I got like all, you can eat mussels on Tuesdays and all kinds of really cool, like little specials they do from like, whatever, four to six.
So, uh, you’re welcome. Anyone who goes in and enjoys that. I just hope there’s a sister restaurant in Deauville called Lexington. That’s that’s. That’s where my brain goes when I hear about this, but lots of places to check out on future visits. All right, let’s get let’s. Let’s we’re going to put you to work here cause you don’t work hard enough.
Gabby. We’re going to put you to work here. We’re going to have you talk about. Some of these stakes races coming up over the weekend and we’ll start out on Friday. It goes as Ray seven, it’s the limestone turf sprint steaks. We’ve got a big full field. Uh, we’ve got a hundred thousand dollars on the line, five and a half on the turf.
Did you have, I don’t know how a couple of days out still, I don’t know how deep you’ve gotten to dig into the form, but did you have an initial thought on this one? At least? I’m already on Saturday, Pete, I have to get in most of my information, uh, by tomorrow morning for Saturday. So yes, all done with the Friday program and.
Uh, Chelsea Cloisters, uh, she truly is the horse to beat, especially considering the way we saw bulletin. Come back on opening day at Kaitlin. She chased him virtually around the track. And prior to that, I mean, I thought she ran a good race in the Indian summer, too. So. She’s going to be, you know, I think the horse to beat it depends on the weather.
I haven’t checked the weather and, and the turf conditions on Saturday too. Um, but Wesley ward also sends out still water Cove. I can remember she was a Philly going into the greeters cup, who she, he actually worked her on the turf, as I believe in Keelan. Um, prior to the, uh, breeders kept you in military sprint N.
She absolutely loved the soft going. And, uh, unfortunately she really didn’t get out of the gate and she probably, you know, was a little bit overmatched, but, um, you know, if the turf conditions are a little bit soft, she’s one that I think you can consider. And then I thought that the interesting horse in here kind of the wild card is ginger nut per John Sadler.
She was a beautiful, beautiful filly when I saw her down at Gulf stream and she caught my eye and my attention. Um, and unfortunately. She had an awful trip. She clipped heels essentially on the back stretch I read or did a good job, hang on and kind of re gathering momentum, uh, to wind up finishing fourth.
But yeah, no, as well as I do at five for a long of a turf, if anything goes awry, it’s very difficult to overcome that. Uh, so I thought that she had a little bit of a sneaky look. To her, uh, you even can consider play on in there too, who she had a much, much better trip out of the melody of colors. So I guess that would just be my take, you know, I think Chelsea Cloisters is as affiliated beat in there.
Um, but in terms of the melody of colors, I’m more interested in gender net than I am on the winner of the race and play on. All right. That, uh, that, that makes a lot of sense. Let’s move on to the grade one. Action. Always nice to get some weekday grade one action. And we get it in the form of the makers mile goes as race.
Number nine. Where did you land in here? Gabby? I have gone back and forth, back and forth between Delta prints and corporate. Um, these are the two that will do it for me. I, I think they’re both tremendously talented. Um, and it really just does boil down to, I think, experience and proficiency at the mile.
Um, and you might stand out best with those two factors, Delta prints. I thought he ran a very good race in the Pegasus world cup. Um, turf, excuse me. And I don’t think he wants to go that far out of my own three 16. So considering all of that and the yielding going everything involved that day, I thought he ran really well.
And I think he’s a better horse at the mile. I think he’s a truly better horse at the mile, as we saw on the fourth start date and even the Woodbine mile. Um, and then court bond. You know his last race at Tampa. Unfortunately he got shuffled back going into the turn. Um, and in my opinion, he was much the best he should have surely won that race against inspector was just kind of an unfortunate situation.
And I think he’s handy enough to win at the mile. And the biggest question is raging bull coming off of the Hollywood Derby. Got to see instilled regard, come back for Chad Brown. Um, and he was second as a heavy favorite last weekend and a undercard allowance race. Um, the thing with raging bull is he’s strictly faced three-year-old competition and this weekend’s going to be the first time that he faces older.
Uh, and on top of that, the mile. There just seems like a lot of things that are an unknown for raging bull. Who’s likely going to be a short price. I mean, the only feed see on the paper it’s heart to heart. So he’s going to have to overcome those factors. And that’s why I felt more confident and horses that could be maybe a little bit more tactical at the mile, like Delta, Prince and Koran.
We’ve got stakes action also on Saturday at keen. Linda, of course, Gabby I’ve already kept you longer than I said I would, but I wanted to get a quick thought from you on a couple of races. Let’s start off with the one that goes as race nine on Saturday, five 30 Eastern post time. The Lexington last chance for triple crown points for these runners.
I know you said you haven’t done your deep dive yet, but does anything leap off the page at you when it comes to the Lexington? Oh, it’s challenging. Not only does there seem to be a lot of pace in here, but there’s for lack of a better word, some inconsistency, you know, there are horses who I think are coming out of just okay.
Races, um, that really need to step up to the plate. We get another twist of fate in there who looks very good. I mean, I’ve been a fan of Harvey ward. Well banger. Although I will add that he got a beautiful set up in the Holy bull, but he was training so well into the Florida Derby and he looked great. He just seemed like that prototypical horse that needed for Kenny McPeak needed a race underneath his belt.
And then I don’t think anybody would have predicted how the pace scenario. Would ensue there with maximum security going wire to wire. So, you know, from top to bottom, I think it’s a very challenging field and there are some horses that really need to turn things around and then some horses that could step up to the plate.
So I’m looking forward to diving into it. Uh, in more detail, but I mean, that’s kind of my take on it at face value. Totally fair. And J K and I will talk about that a little bit more on the Saturday show that folks can check out in the same podcast feed. Before I let you go a quick thought on the Jenny Wiley grade one on Saturday.
I love this race every year. I love this race. We see tremendous horses come back each and every year. I’m a little partial to it considering the fact that tapping one, it just a few years ago, but, um, what Billy or Mary, I should say that I’ve been following for quite some time as rep Scott. And I know this is a mayor that Chad has had some trouble with, you know, and.
And getting her to the races each and every year, because she is a affiliates or excuse me, that shown so much talent, but she has a lot of gaps in her form. And I feel like they finally got her in the right spot. Now, now all that said. I think you really need to focus on the Hillsborough race in which she won.
And she won impressively. It was a very slow pace that by the second place finisher and Hawks more, and I thought I read her T’s did a phenomenal job getting her in position at the quarter pole in order to win and her class per railed on top of that. But in hindsight, on the moon against performance in there, I think you could argue that it was in fact.
Just as good, if not better, because she had the wider trip, she was farther back. She just had a lot more to overcome. So, you know, you want to consider those two. And of course it’s headline essentially by rushing fall, who was three for three at Kaitlin, a fun. Fact, uh, only wise Dan and take charge. Lady have won four races at Kean Lynn.
So she’s hoping to become the third horse to win four races at Kean Lynn, and she has the credentials to do so. And I also did here. Um, Bella Bay for Todd Pletcher has been training really, really, really well down at Palm beach downs. So. Those in my opinion are going to be the top contenders and I don’t think much separates those horses.
So it’s going to be a very fun race to handicap. It’s going to be a very fun race, uh, to watch as well, because I I’ve been following some of these fillies and merits for quite some time. And don’t you feel like rushing fall has been around forever? She’s only four. She just strikes me as the type that just always is around.
So, uh, I’m really excited for the Jenny Wiley. It’s truly is a spectacular, great one event, quite an exclusive club rushing falls, attempting to join and great stuff from you, Gabby here and throughout this appearance. Thank you so much for taking time out of such a busy week to carve out a few minutes to join us.
We will be talking to you real soon. Thank you again so much. Thanks so much. Good luck this weekend. Cheers. All right. Great stuff. As always from our friend, Gabby, God debt, JK. Want to get your take on some of these Friday races before I let you get outta here? And what did you say? You wanted to give some thoughts on the late pick five?
I thought that sounded like a good plan. I mean, outside of breeders cup, I don’t think I’m talking out a turn where I’d tell you. I don’t think you can play a late pick five. With two stakes races and one of them being a grade one on a Friday. Yeah. Is there anywhere else? You can do that. And by the way, it’s a Friday, you know, honestly, at this point, even Saratoga is like, there might be an exception, but I think so many of those grade ones have moved to Saturday.
That keen Lynn might be the whole show X, the Breeder’s cup when it comes to that proposition. So we’re looking forward to that. And this is a particularly interesting sequence. We start off with an allowance race on the dirt, but it is the return to the races of copper town, a horse. I know you have a history with Mr.
Crow and other horses in here. Who’s run some very big figures. I have to give a shout out to the XFL name, call back number three. He hate me as well. Once worked on a book about the XFL long time ago, props to my man bred forest K, who is gonna get us started in this late, pick five on Friday. I only need three horses in here, but I’m going to, I’m going to kind of press two of them.
And those two horses love it at Keeneland. Uh, they, they apparently liked the burgoo as much as I do. Uh, I’ve I’ve heard this bread pudding thing. I’m not a bread pudding guy. Uh, Jesse and the green will bring ice cream Sunday. If you’re having a good day, I thought that copper town on the rail, um, the horse I’ve been just trying to get back to his, to his performance that he had prior to the cigar mile at Keelan, where he ran.
So impressively winning by five. He’s had some issues. He bumped his head, um, in the Fred Hooper and the slop on Pegasus day, he was scratched out of the Commonwealth last week. And obviously it’s probably to run in this spot. I think copper town could be tough in here. And then the nine curate on the far outside for Brad Cox.
Um, he’s also undefeated and Keelan ran a big number. Last time at Oaklawn CRO is another horse that you probably need to pay attention to for Ben Colebrook. Ben does a good job. In Kentucky does a good job everywhere, but, uh, but in Kentucky he can get a ready to run, think creative for you to get this thing started, but I’ll get a little bit skinny later to, uh, to kind of make up for the spread here in the first leg.
One more thing. We’ll talk about it later on another show, but I love the fact that Caitlin’s pick five, pays four or five. I know Goldstream does it, um, as well. And I’ve been going back and forth on whether or not I liked it and I do because the way that I play pick fives, I don’t. Hit them very often, but when I hit him, I, I hit him.
Good. And so I like the fact that I get some money back. It’s like an additional rebate with that four or five. So if you haven’t noticed that, keep that in mind when you’re constructing your tickets, feel a little bit more confident and taking a stand in a place. Where, you know, if you can get the rest of it, right, you’re gonna get some money back that observation.
And we talk with Sean Borman who will be backed by the way on these chemo shows. I believe, I believe I’ve got him booked to come on the Sunday show with me this week. JK will be absent for that one. Uh, actually just absent on the live broadcast. There may be, uh, some tape where he appears on that one too.
But Sean talks a lot about the importance of preservation of capital that four or five. Facilitates that very thing. And then about like the pick five, you don’t gotta be that creative in leg one. You can talk out as JK suggests in this Ray six, as long as you’ve got the ability to either get super skinny or get super creative a little bit later in the sequence and leg one is the best place to get skinny, in my opinion.
Because there’s the pig for afterwards. You don’t have already for after Lake too, you get to pick three, which is fine too. So I think being aggressive in that first leg is always a good one to do that. No, we said we weren’t going to do tangents so I could let you get on with your life here. But you, you keep saying things that are interesting.
I think it works both ways, right? You can come back and play the pick four, but I also think there’s like a weird natural human tendency. That’s not a healthy one where people want to stay alive and might spread too much early and single, too much late when I’ve had the most success in my life with these pic bets, doing the exact opposite of having more coverage late and keeping chaos on my side late.
And just, you know, when you can get alive in one of these long picks with a single, your leverage just increases tremendously, or at least that’s how it feels to me. Yes. That’s a great feeling until you get snapped on the fourth. Gosh, you really have been going sour there. There was a time there was a time where you would have never said something like that, by the way.
You’re, you’re, you’re due for a, I feel like I got to give you a pep talk at this point. You’re due for a big one. I’ll be fine. I’ll be fine. As long as Flavian prat. Is back in California on Saturday. We’ll all be good Friday and Saturday. We’ll be good. He did me dirty today. What was the ride? You’ve mentioned it a couple of times.
Now we’ve got to talk about the rights that people can maybe learn something, at least it, rather than no one wants to listen to you. Just Y and JK, they will listen to you whine today. If it means maybe they can cash a bet tomorrow, who is this horse to watch, uh, to which you’re referring. Well, he wrote a horse today for, uh, for Roger Hatfield, the two horse of the seventh race, and then Jose didn’t do much better for sure.
On the four horse. Um, those are the only two horses I had used. They went a mile on the turf. They went 49 to the half. And, uh, when you, when you look up and see 49, look back and see where those two jokers are, look, it happens. Look, I, you know, I, I, uh, Yeah, I know I do dumb stuff every day, so, and I’m not even risking my life, so I, I’m not, not knocking.
I’m just, I’m just, I’m just making fun. So, um, you know, both of those guys are obviously awesome writers, but, uh, they, they let me down today to, to look up the name of the Atfield horse in particularly because this was a horse who was bad carte Blanc, carte, carte blanche, carte blanche. Yeah. This is a horse who had a lot of steam in the betting markets are very, very heavily bat.
And I assume that was an indicator of the recent workouts being good, probably a horse that will win next time. I mean, that’s just my gut watching that trip and watching that bedding. This is the kind of horse that sometimes will come back and it was, it was a very bad trip, but I don’t think it was like, International bad trip or everyone in their brother will necessarily bet the horseback next time.
So maybe there’d be just a hint of value. Carp launch is one. We’re going to call carp launch a podcast horse moving forward. And with that, we’re going to move on to race. Number seven, the limestone turf sprint stakes, JK. Who do you got? In this race, you know, Gabby earlier mentioned the 18 horseplay on he was coming out of the same, uh, races as ginger nut, who was trained by John Sadler.
And I’m just going to go ahead and say that John Sadler remembered. How to train a horse out of California for accelerate last year and he suddenly forgot again. So I’m going to toss that horse down on the rail. It’s hard to get a good trip, uh, in a turf sprint down on the rail, especially when you don’t have a ton of speed.
You gotta have everything go your way. I like the eight horse to play on who’s coming out of that same race was forwardly placed there. Brad Cox, the switch to Javier Castellano. I love me some Sean bridge, man. I would say that’s a little bit of a, of a rider upgrade. And if you look at play on there’s a half-brother there.
That people from Lexington and Keelan might be familiar with. And that’s a horse by the name of will-call who has done some good turf sprinting work at keen Lynn over, uh, over the years. And so I think he, you know, that horse play on could be tough. And then give me both of the Wesley’s Stillwater Cove, obviously as, as been one that’s run.
Well, he took over to ask it. Uh, last year and, uh, Chelsea cloister, who I needed very, very badly at 25 or one in the breeders’ cup, juvenile turf spread, uh, scratched out of the race against the boys and decided to come here and run against the Phillies. I’m assuming Wesley was just keeping an eye on the weather.
Didn’t want to miss that spot. If the weather looked, uh, you know, looked a little bit dicey, uh, on the 10 day forecast for this spot. So I think Chelsea closes the most likely winner. The only three that I need in the pick five or the eight play on the 10 Stillwater Cove and the 12 Chelsea Cloisters.
What is the Chelsea cloister? Pete? I, I don’t know exactly what. That name refers to. I mean, I know what a cloister is and, uh, I know a couple of places called Chelsea. I don’t know that there’s a cloister in either of the Chelsea’s. I know. However, so there’s probably a story there and I just want to underline and suggest maybe in your picks that you press that one up a little bit.
Chelsea Cloisters looks like the real deal to me is that insight info about him looking at the 10 day forecast to trainers. Really do that. I mean, it seems just so unpredictable that many days out. No, but why enter the horse in the Palisades turf, you know, a week ago and then scratch, you know, why, why enter there?
Yeah, I don’t, I, I mean, honestly, I don’t know, maybe just to see in case it looked really weak or something, but he had to know that bulletin was running there. The breeders’ cup. Yeah. Or maybe a bulletin scratched. I don’t, I, yeah. I mean, Maybe, maybe you would think anyway, I don’t know. I just, I wasn’t sure if you’d heard something about the weather, but here’s what I’m saying.
If I was Wesley ward, I entered the horse and I looked at the 10 day forecast and it’s supposed to rain on Friday the day that the, that this race is going to be run. The lighting is the limestone and you know, I’m going to run against the boys and make sure I get my grass start. Cause I would imagining that he wants to take some of these horses over to ask it.
So you’ve got to get the racism. It’s a fair point. I just think that you, and by if you’re right about this, he have much more faith in weathermen than I do, but that’s neither here nor there. Let’s talk about the allowance rates that goes as race. Number eight, J K, according to the morning line, it’s an open one.
How many do you need in here? Um, a lot of them, but not all of them. Um, I remember when TIS mischief, he used to be like a. He used to be like a really well thought of horse. And, and, and, and I remember seeing a workout report, whether it’s either privately or publicly, at one point we ran out of a minus work and it was going in the right direction.
He had that huge race at Churchill. They just kind of fizzled off and then I tossed them on, on, on, uh, on breeders’ cup day and, uh, November 3rd and he won. So, uh, he’s 15 and one of the morning line, he’s one that you might want to consider, just finding his way a little bit. See what happens with just whistle here.
Justice will shows up in this spot. I would almost think that that would be kind of a negative if he shows up here, he’s also entered in on Saturday and the stake race. So just little shows up here, you know, drawn outside and the kind of lack of confidence that might be a horse that you can toss. That’s going to take some money.
Um, I thought raised the flag. Was a horse that it made a lot of sense to me in this spot. I talked about how much I respect Mike maker as a horse trainer. And I think that he is in Tyler, Gaffney owned by the way is, is, is obviously I don’t want to call them up and coming cause everyone knows who he is now, but he’s, he’s one of those guys that you might not think of as a Mike Smith Jose.
And I rad. Javier Johnny he’s probably right, right below that, but he’s a more than capable rider. And I think he could be extremely tough. Um, sauna tier makes sense. Um, what his race is that he had an Oaklawn. I tried to, I tried to, to bet him his last two races at Oaklawn based on the two races prior to that, it’s saying Anita, where I thought he didn’t have things his way.
I think sauna tear is another one that could be interesting. And then Kershaw, uh, fulfilled tomato. Uh, people in Lexington might not be as familiar with Phil if you don’t participate much on the West coast, but I would feel as a, a more than capable trainer. He’s he’s, uh, he’s a talented trainer and a trainer that if you had a good horse, I would, I would never tell you not to send one to him and that horse.
Uh, as, as one, some pretty good races in his career. And I think the Kershaw is definitely one that, uh, you might want to take a look for race nine more grade, one action in the makers mile. And what are you going to do here? Is this where you’re going to get skinny? What are you going to do with Christina?
Helmers favorite horse raging bull. Christina Helmers jeepers creepers. So, yeah. So if you don’t listen to the, you had listened to the old one, so you’re not going to know that Christina Helmers joke and the raging bull joke. I’m going to give it to you in 15 seconds. I had a friend named Christina Helmers.
That sounds a lot like another Helmers. And so I always root against raging bull. Cause I, I think about that situation, it’s, it’s very deep, but, um, you know, I wish heart-to-heart drew outside of great wide open, cause I would be very excited about heart to heart here, heart to hearts, run it. Katelyn seven times he’s won twice, been in the money three times.
Um, he’s run at the distance and now everyone sees this little thing that I’ve found. And, um, DME, if you want to find out how I found it, but there’s a, he’s gone this distance 30 times. Not now, now look, you’re going all say no, he hasn’t, but, but I found a thing that, that does distance within a 16th of a mile.
So he’s run a mile on the 16th, a mile or seven and a half 30 times. So like right in that wheelhouse and he’s won 10 times. At that distance five times, he’s run second, three times. He’s run third. So heart to heart August. He likes it at Keelan. He likes the distance is getting a little bit older. He’s eight years old, but here’s one of those situations where I feel like as has had some rough rides on heart to heart where he’s rated and he’s gone, he’s rated and he’s just kind of, kind of lost his way a little bit.
Great. Wide open has shown speed at fairgrounds, all, all, uh, all winter. And I just feel like one of them. Is going to be not very aggressive, but everyday other closer in the race is going to play the race as if it’s going to fall apart because of heart to heart and great wide open. I’m going to just use those two horses and think that one of them is going to get loose and a closer beats me than a closer beats me, but I’m going to get so much value in this pick five by throwing out a Delta print.
A curb on, in a raging bull. And I’m going to just hope that one of those two horses gets loose. And I think one of them will, I just don’t know which one it is. Sometimes when there are just two speed horses, they do have a way of backing down that pace in a way that sets up for exactly what you’re saying.
But for me, I’m going to be rooting for raging bull betting a little bit on raging bull. And I will text Christina Helmer, not to be confused with a contest player with a very similar name when it’s over and say, Hey, your horse won again. This is the one her first day at the races. I happened to randomly meet her at a, uh, at a Woodford reserve party out at Belmont park and was trying to tell her, you know, some stuff about how to make bets and just.
Centered to the paddock for a race and said, bet, the horse that you think, you know, looks the best. It was raging bull back in. I don’t know what the other than when whatever it was Belmont weekend, last year went on to win all those stakes races. Raging bull is a cool horse and you may be right, but if they just let it out a little too much early JK, I think it could still set up for raging bull, but I respect your approach.
Let me be clear just a little bit here. I’m not saying that I don’t like those other three horses. I mean, I think they’re all extremely live horses. But in these situations and these five pick fives and anything you’re doing, you have to find conservative views at times, because if you just do everything that seems obvious everyone else is doing the same thing.
And so this is a situation where I feel like one of these two horses, who’s going to be third, fourth, fifth, sixth, choice. Could get loose and I like horses on the front end a lot less bad things can happen when you’re on the front end, then when you’re coming from off of it. And I should remember that, especially today when I had two closers, they didn’t, they didn’t have anything to close into.
So yeah. Fair enough. Let’s tell the people how they’re going to get paid in the last race of this. Pick five on Friday JK, we got a maiden race. You got a strong opinion in this one. I’m guessing just from the way you’ve played the rest of the sequence. No, you’re making me feel, I like two horses here, but I will say this, this is a tough spot.
You’re going to need to look at a workout report. Um, you know, we, we, we talk about a lot of different ones that we like to look at. Uh, the DRF clock, our report is one. You can check out, um, uh, the two, excuse me, there’s two horses and the nine and the 11 hold the two to the outside, the nine violent lady, the 11 Palomita Chad Brown, Dallas Stewart.
Those two horses have the best. Races on paper where they’ve run. Well, you know, obviously, uh, Chad can, can, can, when he takes time with a horse, man, they’re usually gonna run pretty good. And especially when it’s one of his owners that you know, that he has like their full trust. So he doesn’t feel like he needs a rush them into spots.
racing. Obviously one of those he’s one, two breeders’ cup. We just got for new money, honey and rushing fall, who you’ll see at Keenan on Saturday. I think Palamida is probably the most likely winner. I do want to check out the worst workout report and make sure things are going in the right direction.
The second most likely winner for me is violent lady with Dallas Stewart. I think that horse ran well down at fairgrounds in the slot is, uh, you know, running the same distance. It’s tricky with those slop races. You never know what you’re going to get. The horse was bet that day six to one on debut. So see, just that, that the word was out that the horse can run a little bit.
I’m a little bit concerned about the three first time. Excuse me, the four first time starters in the middle of the field. And that’s made to be, uh, for an owl stall baby seal for a rusty Arnold doll collection for Ralph nix and bonnet. For bill Mott, you’re going to try to need to get some information about those four horses and how they’re training.
Unfortunately, none, you know, none of them have been really been working at keenly except for baby seal. So I’m not really sure what you’re going to get out of there. I’m going to hold my breath. I’m obviously going to be holding my breath and the race prior to this, when I’m just using the two speed horses and I’m going to try to get away with the horses that have run that have some experience, the nine violent lady and the 11 Palamida.
Great stuff. JK for JKS thoughts on Saturday, you can check out the other show. The in the money players podcast, JK is going to miss our Sunday. Caitlin show that at least the live portion of it might hear some of them on tape. And then he’ll be back next week for the recap in the money show. And then we’ll be back with another couple of Caitlin shows as well, should be a lot of fun.
Thank you JK for your time tonight. Always PTF. I love, uh, I love talking to you and it’s, it’s always fun to do in these evening hours. It’s a different dynamic, right? Sure. We tend to go on way more tangents in the evening. Not sure why that is, but that said we’re going to bring in our next special guest little bit of a keen contests preview coming up right now.
And now I’d like to welcome to the keenly and select players podcast, longtime listener of the, in the money players, podcast, and name I’ve seen on a whole lot of leaderboards. He’s an NHC qualifier. He’s had success in the Keelan contest. He’s qualified for the breeders’ cup betting channel twice. All of that stood behind his number one achievement of course, qualifying for the world championship of handicapping.
I’m talking about Ernie Hayes Jr. Ernie, how are you today? I’m well, thank you. How are you? Things are good. I’m getting ready to travel down to Oak lawn, but I’m envious of you. Who’s traveling to Keeneland. Doesn’t sound like this is just any old trip to Cayman though. It give us a little bit of the backstory.
Um, well, um, the first time I qualified for Keene Linda, I really enjoyed it. Uh, the people there, Mr. Goodman and everyone taking care of us. Um, but, uh, and I’ve, I took my fiance, uh, girlfriend at the time, a fiancee and, uh, We’re getting, we’re getting married May 25th this year. So this is sort of my bachelor’s, uh, uh, last time for a tournament as a, as a bachelor.
Like I won’t be able to make it, make it for Churchill downs or anything. So I’m going to have to go on a little hiatus until the summertime for the contest, uh, since I’m going to be a busy with the honeymoon and those things. So, yeah, I’m really looking forward to the Keeneland contest. Now, obviously so many great tracks, so many great contests out there.
It’s obvious Keeneland has a special place in your heart. What is it about the Keelan contest that you like so much? Well, uh, I really liked the live money. Uh, I haven’t had too much success a little bit, um, but I liked the live money and, uh, I like the fact that, uh, sort of like two days, you know, if you want to compete the day before the Sunday contest, um, it’s nice to be there and see the horses actually running the live horses in the paddock.
So I really enjoy it. And the people there are great. They do a great job. Where do you usually sit? We really enjoy the Phoenix room. Uh, usually on Saturday, I always get a table there and then usually the main contest area where they hold, uh, on Sunday. Excellent. Excellent. Well, I know you’ve had some success there.
I know you’re looking forward to the opportunity this time. I also know you have some good stories about horseplaying and relationships. That’s a topic that I love talking about. Mike Maloney made sure to cover it pretty extensively in his book, betting with an edge, some of the stories about how playing the horses can sometimes get in the way of your relationship.
You have a story along these lines. Are you, you know, the one I’m referring to. Yeah, I was, um, the opening day of Keeneland in the fall meet last year, I hit the early pick five and then I was alive going into the late tech and, um, the chemo 10 kilos, 10. Yeah, that was, I was going out to, I was going out to dinner with, uh, with, uh, uh, fiance, uh, and, uh, I was checking my phone.
It was one of those things where. I couldn’t keep watching the races. explained to her that I was alive. And uh, she’s like, we’re, uh, we’re at dinner and we’re waiting for our table. Wait, why are you checking your phone? She’s like really the racist and they didn’t want to say anything. So, uh, after dinner I, uh, checked my phone and that a hundred dollars horse head one, and I hit the pics.
I hit the pick five and believe it or not, I had that horse and. So three total horses. It wasn’t just, uh, an all, I actually liked the horse because I like the horse getting on the turf and I liked the trainer, but never expecting to hit that big of a, of a pick five. Come back. If you don’t mind repeating, I think it was around 13,000 for the 50 cents for the early pick five and a 50 some thousand.
So your etiquette breach of checking the phone at dinner, that was soon forgiven. I’m going to guess. Uh, yeah, it took me a few days actually to, uh, to let it out that I had won that much money. I let her know that I hit, hit the pig. Um, but, uh, I was sort of in shock myself. So yeah, it was sort of, sort of forgiven then that makes sense.
And I, we were putting some of that money towards. Towards the wedding and the honeymoon. That’s fabulous. That’s inspiring stuff for all the HorsePlayers out there wondering how they can balance their horseplaying with their romantic relationships. Let’s talk a little bit about how you got involved in racing in the first place.
And I want to give some shout outs to some of your friends who are going to be joining in at the bachelor party, hopefully playing in the tournament as well, but where did it all get started for you Ernie? Well, um, when I was younger, it was, it actually cause I’m from the Buffalo New York area. So it was mostly a harness racing, um, you know, sneaking in when you’re not of age, as they say.
Um, but um, always seeing the commercials, you know, for a beautiful 40 retrack track and a Woodbine in the finger lakes is close to where I live. So, um, as I got older and, uh, had a job and some money in my pocket, I started going to the Fort Erie race track. And, uh, the finger lakes and that’s where I cut my teeth on the thoroughbred tracks.
And it was the pageantry to me, it was the silks and the thundering hosts, you know, and you know, when you hear the horses snort and then the horse running by, uh, standing on the rail, that’s what drew me in. There’s a visceral reaction. It gets the blood. Following that’s for sure. Sometimes I say about racing and that visceral experience.
You describe if that don’t get your fire burn and your wood is wet. So I’m with you a hundred percent, especially when you’re a guy who used to go to OTB and actually looked up at a speaker and listened to the audio. Oh, the races from golf street. So that’s how old I am. He’s going to say you’re my age clearly, or maybe even older with that story, that little chest.
Wow. What about learning the handicapping side of the game and getting into contests? Well, uh, the handicapping, I just pretty much, it was a pickup, the racing form and learn on my own, like by the seat of my pants. And, uh, I don’t know if you remember, the, the window racing times came out. Um, I actually switched over to that, and then I was glad that you know, that other company that used to work for you, some of that information.
Um, and then I started. And it’s like your, your, your man Harvey pack, right? That’s his name? Harvey pact would say, if you come in bet that double and you win. That’s the first time we got ya. It is so true because, um, when I started, uh, I could tell you, you know, you use, remember your beats, your bad beats, but you also, you remember those winners and, uh, farm away.
In one of the races that Pimlico when they had that series one and Hansel in the Preakness. And so those kinds of things, I started, uh, with my handicapping and actually winning some money. And, um, then I went, I took a little break for awhile, but then I, when I got back into it, I started with the contest and it started with the DRF contest.
That’s great. Contests have been a lifeline in for a lot of players since you started playing in contest. Have you started back betting para mutually? Well, obviously based on that pick five score, but how important is what’s the balance of cash play to tournaments for you? Yeah, well, you know what, uh, I like to get the qualifying in, so it’s, it’s, uh, I’ve been mostly now playing contest because it’s early in, obviously, cause I’m going to have to take the hiatus.
For the wedding and the honeymoon. So I’ve been playing mostly contest, staying away from the live, uh, money. Um, But I try to balance it out a little bit. Um, but I D I like, I like both. I’ll also make the point that when you’re playing contests, but there that, that might be mythical online, but you’re feeding into live bank role play.
You’re eventually going to be turning a lot of money in the pools. It still helps the industry in a very meaningful way. Let’s talk a little bit more about the specifics of the bachelor weekend at keen Lynn, who are going to be some of the folks in your, your Merry band of degenerates. Well, um, it’s not a big crew in effect.
Uh, I met Dave Nichols, uh, my friend, uh, the first time I went to Kaitlin, uh, him and his wife, they were sitting at a table on Saturday, across from us, and we struck up a conversation and now we’ve been pretty much, uh, meeting at a different contest Saratoga. Caitlin, um, breeders’ cup. Uh, so, uh, I just, uh, it’s one of those things I’m, uh, I’m, I’m a little older, so it’s not a big blowout, but, uh, like I, I told Dave, uh, we’re going to have a good weekend in before the wedding.
That’s great. Dave’s a good guy. Folks might remember he won that. Final qualifier for the world championship of handicapping one, his entry to that because he was the guy who handled the most in qualifying parlayed it to a birth out there he’s made some deep runs in tournaments himself. How important is it to you as a contest player to have somebody like Dave, who you can bounce ideas off of and talk to about the various ups and downs that go into all your horseplaying.
Yeah. You know, it’s, it’s like anything else. Uh, you learn a lot. If you, if you are open to keeping your eyes and ears open, you get a lot of information. This is what I like about your podcast. Um, I may not agree, right. A difference of opinion makes the horse race. But, uh, sometimes you see something in a, in the form or something on a video that you didn’t pick up or there maybe some strategies in regards to the way you make your wagers.
So I’m always open for that. And I learn a lot. Um, I’ve read, uh, both of your books, uh, you know, the, you know, the, the, the winning top test player and, uh, Mike Maloney’s book and, uh, uh, Andy buyer’s stuff. So, uh, and I’m open to any and seeing the same faces. Uh, it’s nice to see. Um, but it’s always nice to have new blood come in to, uh, keep the contest going in this day and age when racing is so spread out many racetracks function, largely as TV studios.
Obviously there are days when you go to the track and the scene is super vibrant and alive. Certainly the case, every single day of a meeting like Keeneland, but for the rest of the year, It’s nice to have players to hang out with. And I guess maybe Twitter performs that role a little bit, but Twitter too often is just an outrage machine and you don’t get those meaningful human connections.
What we try to do on the show Ernie. And one of the reasons I’m so glad. You came ox. I think you’re a great exemplar of this is just to create a place where HorsePlayers can hang out and yeah, we don’t want you to agree with us. I mean, Hey, what fun would that be? But if we can say something that stimulates thought, you know, then we’re doing our jobs.
Yeah. You know, it’s, uh, it’s great. In regards to, uh, That’s what makes the horse racing, right? The difference of opinions and, and having a platform, uh, I’m not on social media, because like you said, about being the outrage, I have a feeling I sent you that email after the Gotham contest. If you remember, I was livid in regards to, and even trying to like J K would say, well, watch the, the, the, the, the wheel page.
You know, when they’re all sort of, even it’s kind of hard. And, uh, like I said, I was just crushed that, uh, cause I’m also chasing tour points because believe it or not, I had a good showing. And one of the, the, the freak effect, the free contest with the fours. Yes. I actually was in the lead for a minute until, until the two horse got deep before at golf, ran out.
Um, that sort of crushed me. And then there was another four that was a long shot. And, uh, we all know what happened with that story, but I’ve had a good showing there. And, uh, so I’m going to probably try to chase the tour points this year. I like it. Let’s rewind a little bit for folks who don’t, weren’t privy to that email, everybody.
Um, so you had a situation at the end of the Gotham contest where a price going in late turned to bet you are going to make into one that you hit, but it was not enough money to get you to your goal. Was that the story, if I’m remembering it correctly, and then you would ask me about, about how we can figure out the horses in that race.
And, um, I picked the horse. That was the longest eyes. Cause I, I was trying to move up with my wager into the top five. Or, you know, uh, in the contest and, uh, five to two, seven to two, wasn’t going to get me there. So, um, uh, the three horses I liked, I picked the, the four to one shot because the horse looked like the speed I’ve been though.
The closers were winning that day. And, um, when they went into the gate, my horse was four to one. The other horse to two horse, that one was, uh, was five to two. When they started running down the back stretch, the odds reversed. And the two horse ended up winning and, uh, I didn’t move up any in the contest.
So I was just a little livid in the guys too, how, and trying to figure out how I can get that value, get that price and get that value. When there’s still, the odds are changing when they’re going down the backstretch, it’s very frustrating. Everybody would feel better if at least the toad technology allowed us to see that drop before the Gates pop.
That’s one thing, the aesthetics of it are terrible in practicality. The only advice I have in this situation, and there’s a mathematical way to do this. We’ve talked about it with Marshall Graham. I think it was at a Quester con or. Uh, another appearance somewhere along the way, where if you look at what the various bats are paying the double, the pick three, they, if you look at your horizontal payoffs in the last leg, there can be some real signal there and some real clue.
And there’s even a mathematical way as Marshall’s has done many times to translate. Those will paint numbers into tow Dodds. Now. It doesn’t always model. Exactly. It can give you an idea. That’s my only thought on that. If folks are interested, let me know via Twitter. If you’re interested in this, maybe we’ll have Marshall or maybe I’ll interview Marshall, and we can run through the math and do a blog post about it or something.
It’s the kind of thing that might really end up helping some contest players who were in that situation, but sometimes it’s closed or sometimes it doesn’t model, no matter what you do or any, unfortunately, sometimes you’re just going to get the short end of the stick. What I recommend doing is what you did.
You can, you can vent to your friends for awhile, reach out to your, a podcast host, and then you just keep grinding and you hope to get back on the good side of things soon. Yeah, I know that that would help me cause I’m sort of wanting the lines with, uh, with your partner there. Uh, JK and, uh, Ernie does that
the spreadsheets take all the math out of it. That’s the, that’s the beauty of it. That’s what I think Marshall has the ability to do is you plug the numbers into a spreadsheet and they tell you, you know what, I’m going to go ahead. I do want you to tweet me if you’re interested in this at looms boldly, but I probably just going to go ahead and try to make a simple blog post about this.
Maybe we can even just put a spreadsheet up there. We’ll see maybe Marshall. Marshall, wouldn’t be wrong to view this type of thing as proprietary and think he’s given away too much edge, but he’s also an educator and a super nice guy. So it wouldn’t surprise me. I’m going to see him this weekend in Arkansas.
I’ll ask him then Ernie couldn’t think of a better way to preview this Caitlin contest. This weekend, spring challenge, $400 on Saturday. Sunday grade one, gamble, $3,000. Contact Jim Goodman today. I do believe there are walk-ups, but you’d be wise to reserve your spot today. If you’re planning on playing, I know they can get into some real estate problems there.
Ernie, have a great time this weekend and I hope we can catch up soon. Excellent. Thank you for your time. I appreciate it. And that’s going to do it for this edition of the Keelan select players podcast. Many thanks out there in the world to Gabby God debt, Jonathan Kenshin Ernie Hayes, Jr. Our friends at Keeneland select most of all to all of you, the listeners who are supporting us now through two podcasts.
Very cool stuff. We appreciate it so much. We will be back very soon. I’m Peter Thomas foreign, a towel. May you win all your photos on need.
Hey everybody, Peter Thomas for Nitel back with you one last time, just to remind you. If you use the promo code ITM 19, you can get some great promotions from Keelan select, including an opportunity to bet 300 and get 100. And then again, to bet, 500 and get 50 back, two separate times over the course of the meet.
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