We’ve got a multi-part extravaganza for you today. First up, JK and PTF recap the Thoroughbred Retirement Foundation charity contest from the weekend and play a little Derby Buy, Sell, Hold. Then Chris Larmey is here to try to reprise his impressive feat from three years ago when he selected from the non-taken runners in our Derby draft and still tied for first. Last but not least, Tim Carroll of Sky Sports Racing is here to put Winx’s amazing run in perspective for American fans.
Prefer to read it? See below.
***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains errors and inaccuracies. ***
Hey party people PTF here. I wanted to let you know about the Derby party. I’m hosting in Manhattan at Treadwell park. It’s the hell’s kitchen location of Treadwell park. There is no cover folks. There is no minimum. There’s going to be music, drink specials. Food specials. We’ll chat about the races. We’ll get a chance to hang out.
The bar is really cool. Great stuff to drink on offer all the time and all the more so because it’s Derby come there, hang out with me. Hopefully we’re going to have opportunities to wager right on premises. And we’ll certainly have an opportunity to do some sort of charity raffle type situation for our friends at the thoroughbred retirement foundation, thoroughbred retirement foundation.
Of course, one of the sponsors of this show you can give to them TRF Inc org slash players. But as for the Derby party, you can just show up to Treadwell park in hell’s kitchen on Derby day, May 4th going to be fun.
Your listening to the, in the money players podcast.
Hello and welcome to the, in the money players podcast. This is show 35. It is Monday, April 22nd. When this is going to be dropping, I’m your host, Peter Thomas foreign, a towel back with you. Okay. In the Brooklyn bunker once again, really cool show today, coming up in a little bit, we’ve got Chris to do a larvae draft picking from all others who weren’t taken in our triple crown show.
And then later on, we’ve got Tim Carroll, my friend and colleague from sky sports racing, tribute to winks. Now that her career is in the rear view mirror. But before we get to that, I want to bring in the co-host of this show to talk about a couple of things I am talking of course, about the people’s champion.
He’s calling in from the planet, Texas. He is Jonathan Kinchin JK what’s up. What’s going on? I’ve I’ve had a tough time sleeping this weekend after getting defeated in the, uh, in the Derby Wars. TRF. Charity game that we put on this weekend. Um, I was very happy that I’d beat Garrett schema and his entry.
Um, however, the, uh, the real person. Who plucked me from obscurity also gave it to me pretty good. And that’s Michelle, you congratulations to her on, on pulling off the victory and taking home, I think around 4,700 bucks. How is that? By the way that Michelle you is the winner sharp handicapper in her own, right?
She obviously appreciates. Contest play and who knew Benny South street had told me for years that he knew her and I thought he was just making stuff up. And then there we are interviewing her at the end of the Derby Wars broadcast. And what does she do, but drop his name, slightly different alias that she uses with her, but it was pretty, I was pretty impressed that that was actually a real thing and not just a figment of the man’s imagination.
Congratulations to Michelle and congratulations really. To everybody who helped make that event so special in the end, I don’t have the final dollar amount yet, but we raised an awful lot of money for a great cause in the thoroughbred retirement foundation. And I know JK, you feel like the little experiment we did is something that racing can learn from maybe a little bit, at least in the contest part of the world.
Yeah. I just think if you continuously give people the same product, um, they can grow tired of it. And if you want to add on to that, if you give. People a financial reason or an emotional reason to participate, then participation will grow. Financial reasons obviously could be, uh, takeout, reductions, um, more favorable situations for the player and then emotional.
Um, you know, obviously the charity thing, the aspect of being able to help the retired thoroughbreds or to help with the rehabilitation of our two legged friends as well. So I think that that when you, when you combine those things, you can really kind of get people back interested in something. They can maybe become a little bit mundane by doing the same thing over and over.
So I was very pleased with the turnout we had. Like I said, we were hoping we would get 50. And we got 118, so that’s pretty awesome, amazing performance, really. And that’s attribute not so much to us, but to all of you, the listeners, we give props at the end of every show for a reason, and also not too late to donate.
We’ve got our custom link. If you want to give we’d appreciate it very much. TRF Inc org slash players. Also, if you’re interested in seeing the live broadcast, it is not public yet needs some editing. There were some choppy parts that I’d want to get fixed before it goes public to the world. But if you want to check it out, go ahead and tweet us.
I’m at looms boldly, J K of course at UT big hair include at Derby Wars, our friends over there. In the tweet saying, Hey, I’d love to watch that broadcast. Where can I find it? Something like that. And if there is demand, we will make it happen. Hopefully we’ll have some more fun things. Come up, working with Derby Wars, working potentially with our friends over at HorsePlayers where you can still we’ll talk about it a little bit later in the show.
Get involved and try to win your way into the breeders’ cup betting challenge. But we want to stay very much involved in the tournament world, not least of which through the world HorsePlayers tour. And we did definitely see some examples. I thought in the contest of things that are good about the mythical wind place format.
But also some of the limitations and these are things I’m hoping when it comes. So the world HorsePlayers tour format, we found a way to encourage two things in particular. One is for people to be able to play who they like throughout the contest while still preserving a cool element of strategy. The other is to give the average bridge sort of folks out there, the people who aren’t.
Already legends in the tournament world, the Garrett skiers of the world, to give those folks a chance to compete with the likes of Garrett and Tony Joe, in a way where they’re not bringing a knife to a gunfight on, on even terms, the lower bankroll player, to be able to play against these players who play.
If they’re not professional players, they still play at a professional level. I think we found a way to do that with the wht format and I’m hoping it will see the light of day at some point before too long. Absolutely. Absolutely. Yeah. We’re, we’re still pushing the rock up the tree, uh, the, uh, the Hill, the Boulder up the Hill.
So, uh, and it hasn’t rolled back on us yet. So that’s all we can ask that’s right. The idea very much alive and, well, it doesn’t matter what Frank McGaughey says. You will be seeing episodes of that at some time in the not too distant future. Hopefully we’ll have some harder news to announce soon. All right.
J K I think it’s time to move on to our game. We’re going to play today a little bit at Kentucky Derby buy, sell, hold. We’ll look at roughly half the field here, and we’re going to start off with Omaha beach. Omaha beach is listed as the co favorite in most spots, along with Roadster. They’re both at seven to one.
So let me ask you seven to one Omaha beach, Kentucky Derby buy, sell, or hold. I’m buying on this one. PTF, I think that this horse is going to end up being kind of the buzz horse, uh, the, the workout type of horse. Remember at Del Mar when Omaha beach kind of first became, uh, on our radar, got to our radar.
He was an, a minus workhorse as a two year old and a horse that touts himself like that at Del Mar as a two year old is obviously a pretty. Good moving son of a gun. And I would imagine that that’s gonna, he’s gonna do the same thing when he gets over to Churchill, when he starts working and galloping around there.
I think that buzz will probably push him to be the favorite. And I would imagine he’ll go off somewhere around five to one, maybe even lower if he can get some negative on the others, on the other horses. Um, so if you can get seven now, I think you’re, you’re definitely barking up the right tree. Now with Roadster seven to one for me.
And you know, you don’t get rich betting against Bob Baffert and Kentucky Derby’s, but I have to call the seven to one to sell. I think I would, you know, uh, you don’t get rich taking one to seven shots either, but I just think there’s too many other horses. I like more, I would go ahead and sell the seven to one.
Am I crazy? Am I asking for trouble? No, you know, I’m, I’m kind of, I’m kind of in against Roadster. You know, we talked about it on a previous show where we think Roadster’s going to go off. I think we were talking with Paul, you know, we have three bathrooms here. We have game winner and probable in Roadster and the order in which they’re going to go off para mutually.
I’m not quite sure. I, I, I thought Roadster was going to be last, um, the, the third of the three Baffert, but now I’m starting to kind of be concerned that maybe he’ll go off the second. I don’t believe he’ll be the first. Um, if he’s the first and then we’ve got a bigger questions to figure out I’m, I’m just concerned with Roadster because of the issues that he had.
Um, he clearly had an issue that, that, that got him to the sideline and ruined, uh, you and the Prince of Keenan’s future bet on him in the breeders’ cup, juvenile that’s right. Maybe I’m just once bitten twice shy here with Roadster. The other issue I have with him, and this is not a knock on Fleur Anja, Rue, and Doug, and our friend Doug radar.
Who’s Florence agent, but there’s nothing really about. Flo’s style con like his, I mean, he’s obviously he was for type with gun runner, but his is his day-to-day style is not so much the style that Baffert once his riders to, to, to ride when you know his types of horses. And so that’s a little bit of a concern to me.
Mike Smith knows the horse well, and in four races as has. You know, kind of got to know him well, and, and I’m a little bit concerned about the rider change in that situation, but we’ll see what happens, but I would definitely sell Roadster at 71, not just because of flow, just because I’m not crazy about the horse, just such a great trip last time.
Really. And then I just have questions about how much he’s going to move forward from there. And it’s not so much fluoron being on so much as Mike Smith. Who’d been such a fan earlier as had been reported here on the show by Brittany ERT. And I believe it was. For him to get off. I just, I mean, maybe you could say, Oh, that means you have to elevate both of them, but in this case, I’m going to pick, and I’m going to go with Omaha beach and be a little bit against Roadster.
Let’s move on to the other two Baffert and we’ll start with game winner available a little better than seven to one in places. This is another one. I’m if you made me pick, I would buy. It’s probably like most of these, these lines, they’re trying to take advantage of people. I think in a lot of instances, wanting action and they’re setting things, pretty, keeping things pretty close to the vest, not a lot of meat on the bone in too many of these Derby prices this far out.
I like game winner a lot in the race. Technically it’s a hold, but it would be a whole leaning by for me. What do you think about game winner? Yeah. It’s, it’s a, it’s a solid hold for me. I’m not going to either lean in any direction and the reason, well, I guess I’d lean by the reason is, is that if he’s seven to one today, I mean, you got it.
Yeah. But he’s not going to go off shorter than like five, five and a half to one on, on Derby day. So let’s keep these two weeks. Let’s see the weather, let’s see the drawl. Let’s see all those things. I think those are worth. The point and a half when it comes to trying to make that decision today, that’s a great point.
I didn’t even think of J K was foolishly of me. You draw the one post and all of a sudden, not only is that going to be very difficult, but you know, the market is going to probably. Go crazy. Getting off any horse that’s down on the rail. So everybody in the field has that 5% chance of trying the rail. So if it’s close another reason to lean hold as opposed to buy, but this is more a useful exercise.
I mean, obviously if you’re listening from the UK and Ireland and you can buy these prices good on ya. There’s at least. Two that I do like as buys and I D I’d agree with you with Omaha beach and there’s one coming up in a little bit, but first let’s talk about improbable. Best price available. I’m seeing on improbable is nine to one, and that leaves me a bit cold.
I, if you forced me to choose on this one, I’d go the cell route, uh, and risk the wrath of Bob Baffert. What do you think. Um, you know, this is the tricky one, right? It’s like, there’s a chance he could go off as the third choice. Baffert, which I think is a little bit interesting. I’m going to use my, uh, my government degree and I’m going to use the coattail theory here.
Uh, like we use so often in midterm elections where it just feels like by, by, by association with. Omaha beach. He’s going to kind of get drug along in this process of me liking him and, uh, he’s run two good races. He had an excused from the first race as a three-year-old. He ran, he ran, he ran just fine in his last race, in the slop going against, uh, who’s.
The who’s likely to be the favorite and Omaha beach. I think that I would possibly buy this one. Um, the other situation is I just feel like he’s going to be a little bit forgotten and then you could probably get a fair enough price on the day. That’s the tricky part about futures at this point, it’s obviously a fun, uh, kind of, you know, a fun situation for us in terms of getting to kind of talk about these horses and where the value lie.
But I think in most of these situations, you’re going to get just as good of a price on the day. Um, as, as you could possibly get, trying to lock it in now with a lot of, uh, unknown variables in between now, and then totally fair. And again, we do the exercise because it’s fun to talk about on a podcast and Hey, if you have the opportunity to grab some of these prices, if we did this for every race that UK books put odds out for, we’d find some amazing ones.
I wouldn’t say there’s anything in here that knocks me over. It’s more just going through the exercise and next up, Oh, you go ahead. JK. One thing about futures. I think that if you want a better future, you have to bet the future before the race before. Oh, that’s interesting. You, you, you, you see what I’m saying?
Like, it’s, there’s an old saying, used to say about, you know, getting your body ready for a football game. It’s the night before the night before. It’s what you eat the night before the night before how you sleep the night before the night before. I think if you want a better future, it’s the race that you bet before the race.
You know what I mean? And you want to get into for that. I think there’s some logic to that to try to amp up the amount of value you’re going to be getting. But I will say that sometimes you see these books with random USA races that are so wrong, you can just cherry pick in the morning and do pretty well.
And we’ve heard from some of our UK and Irish listeners, who’ve been able to do that in the past, but I know what you’re saying, especially in a more. Efficient type market. Like this Derby market is more efficient than most of the anti post us betting markets. So I think what you’re saying definitely has Belinda’s maximum security is next on the list.
He is 12 to one, a lot of smart people like this horse, JK, this would be a sell for me and I would just live with the consequences. What do you think. Well, I was not a great high school student. I’ve never been, uh, considered dumb. Um, maybe not smart. I do not like maximum security. Um, I just feel like he there’s a lot of reasons to not like him.
Um, you know, Jason service, um, mile and a quarter, not really his wheelhouse, he, he’s more of a sprinter type. Uh, ran the horse for 16. Um, unbelievably slow pace last time with a bunch of blue fractions and a mile and an eighth race, um, where I don’t really like much that was behind him. And in fact, one of the horses that was behind him was 71 to one.
Oh, I’ll pass. Yeah. Fair enough. All right. Tacitus is next on the list. When I was recording yesterday, the segment you’re going to hear in a few minutes with Chris Alarmy, there was some 14 to one out there that’s been cut to 12 to one, the best price. I’m still going to want to keep tacit on side. Not sure that you won’t get at least 12 on the day to your point, but just on principle.
This is one that I’m going to call a buy. And I like even more. If you can find a firm out there, that’s going to give you a quarter of the odds. If he’ll run in the top three, JK your thoughts on Tacitus at 12 to one, this horse is, is. Is slowly becoming my choice. Um, if I was forced to do it today, he would probably be my, you know, if someone said, who do you think someone that Derby, I’d say, I’m still deciding between three horses, game winner, Omaha, beach, and Tacitus.
So those are the three that I’d be starting the conversation with, I think more than any of those three because of his style and because of the way he’s trained. And so many other things about him, I think the draw is very important for him. Um, uh, he, he feels like the type of horse. You just want to be like in the 10 out.
You want him to kind of be in the clear you want his stamina and his breeding to kind of be. Put to the test where if he has to go two or three wide on the, on both turns, it’s not going to be an issue, but you don’t want to get him buried in behind horses, eating a bunch of dirt needing to Quicken. So I think that he is, is, is very live and I think 12 to one makes a ton of sense, but I’m concerned about seeing the draw first.
So I’m going to hold on Tacitus. I’m not worried about him as a horse being out of clothes, hatches. Who won the personal incident up in Saratoga, going a mile and an eighth. Um, obviously being a talented horse in her own. Right. I don’t see him having an issue with the distance. So I want to get him an outside draw so he can get a clean trip.
And so I’ll have to wait on that one. I’ll hold. I already said I’m going to buy it. I’m going to stick with that, but I will also just throw out the point. The tacit is sort of famously. Not a workhorse, right? There was all the talk about hidden scroll out, working and me doing all this. So he is not likely to be the one that has the work next week.
The more I think about it, and that could lead to his price being better than the 12 on the day. I’m still buying on principle, but I did want to throw that out there. Here’s one thing about him though. I don’t know if bill Mott is going to work them in company and if bill doesn’t work them in company, then it’s going to be a lot less.
Obvious to people that, you know, the reason that he became a quote unquote not good workhorse is because hidden scroll blew his doors off. Really that’s fair. It’s not really a need negative, right? I mean, hidden scroll is whatever he is. He’s a talented horse at that at least. And in a shorter distance, in a workout, you would think that hidden scroll would have an advantage.
Over tasks and it’s, especially at hidden scroll is the quote unquote one turn horse that some people not me are saying that he is. So let’s see if he works in company. Uh, he still could work by himself and, and get a lot of get rave reviews going, you know, doing a 50, 52nd for, for a long work. I can still see him getting B pluses the way he does it.
All right. The coma is next on the list. 14 to one. This is a straight up hold for me a story I’m rooting for a horse. I quite like not sure how he’s going to react to the specifics of the Kentucky Derby test. Um, so I’m just going to call him a hold, but obviously one that we’re we’re rooting for. He needs a hold he’s my heart horse for lots of different reasons.
Uh, one being George Weaver, a big fan of George Weaver and obviously rooting like, heck for him, a big fan of John Pentagon who has hobby or Castellano’s book re rooting for him. And then obviously I’m a fan of my mother, whose name is Mona and she is my mama. And this horse, his mom’s name is Mona de mama it’s it’s it’s.
It’s definitely my heart horse. But, uh, I’ll hold in terms of the financial situation of honor, at 16 to one code of honor is one that I liked the same top three as you code of honor is also what I’m keeping on my extended short list. I feel like will get longer than 16 to one on the day. So this is a hold, but a hold leaning by.
And I, if I recall our previous conversations, you’re not as big a fan. I’m not, I don’t like maximum security. I don’t like the Florida Derby. Uh, we’ll, we’ll stick with the coat tail theme here. Um, I feel like in a normal situation code of honor, if you look at time for me, U S was closing into blue fractions, but he wasn’t that far back, he was three, three links off.
He wasn’t too far back. And the time form U S figure didn’t come back very fast. His two previous races, he had setups. I’m completely against code of honor. I think he’s going to be over bet. I think that, you know, we, we talk about all the time. There’s no trips and slow races. Um, I’m not really sure he got a bad trip in that race.
He was closing in a slow fraction, but he’s closing into a horse that was one point a 16 claimer I’ll fade the horse. I don’t necessarily want to sell them. I don’t need to book the horse in terms of one, you know, whatever one to 16, I like chocolate. Not that much. I prefer to just try to beat him in the pics and beat him in the, uh, tries and supers and stuff like that.
It’d be a head to head we could have. What, if we could find a comparable runner to code of honor, we don’t have to do it now, but you got one. Um, yeah, I’ll do I’ll take well, uh, I think I’m a little too short with Tyler. I was gonna do Tacitus, but that might be too. I love Tacitus. I would never take that anyway, but think about it and we’ll come back to it in a, in a future show.
We’ve got several Derby conversations to go before the big day. So we’ll be able to find that out. No problem. Let’s move on to just a couple more, actually looking these over the bookies. Get very conservative from here. Everything else is. 25 or 33 or 50. Okay. And the fifties are really the horses that you would expect.
So there’s not a ton to really talk about. I think they’re all going to be kind of holds because a lot of them are going to be longer on the day. You’re not going to get too much out of us to tell you which 25 to one plus shot we’re betting against at this stage. We still need to see the draw. We still need to get some workout info, but I will ask it as JK of the remaining runners in that 25 33 to one range.
Is there any that leap out to you as one you’d want? I think there’s three horses that are interesting and that’s, uh, by my standards. I think it’s interesting. Well, Paul was on the NAI NAI Ribet show, or Niara pick five show talking about how he had the race really fast. I think by my standards is a very interesting horse spinoff who ran second to by my standards, obviously an interesting horse and then war of will and came out of that same racing who kind of had the.
Inexcusable clunker after doing so well in the early portion of the year, those three horses from the Louisiana Derby, I think are interesting. If you have a reason to believe that war of will is going to turn the tables. There’s probably an opportunity there. If you think that that race was fast by my standards is, is not considered a flashy Derby type.
There might be an opportunity there. And then spin off is, is even a second. I’ll second, that opinion about by my standards, he ran second to, by my standards in that race and spin off as kind of the, you know, he’s kind of the forgotten Todd pleasure horse that Todd knows how to, what it takes to get around there, going a mile, a quarter Churchill.
All interesting ones to look at. We’ll talk about it more when we get more information along the way, specifically, some more workout stuff. And then we can start talking a little bit about race design, but I think we should see the post positions before we bother with that conversation. But just wanted to give a little bit of insight.
Hopefully you found it insightful as to Derby buy, sell, hold. What are we now like 10 days out, JK. How far are we from this thing? Uh, we’re a little bit further than that, right? I think we’re 12, 12 ish, 10, 12 PTF tries math fails. Anyway, I always struggle with the days I literally Google. Um, like day counter.
Cause I don’t ever know if you’re supposed to count the day, like right. If you have 30 days to close or something, I don’t know if you count the day where it’s signed, you know what I mean? I always have to figure that out. I never can tell. All right, stay tuned folks. We’ve got Chris coming up next for the larvae draft, where he picks from all others from our Derby drafts.
Let’s see if he can equal his Mark of three years ago when he actually ended up tying for first, despite picking from the also rans from the draft. And then we’ve got Tim Carroll to talk about winks and her legacy. And it’s all coming up right after this. This part of the show is brought to you by our friends over at the breeders cup for opportunities to qualify for the Breeder’s cup betting challenge, check out horseplayers.com and we’ll start off with a horseplayers.com question actually for our guest returning to the program, you know, him as many things, including the head of the NHC players committee and a new credit for him, the co-host of the public handicapper podcast.
He’s Chris . Chris, how are you? My friend. I’m doing great, Pete, how are you doing on this Easter weekend? Doing great. We had so much fun, little bit of contest fun yesterday with the event we did over on Derby Wars for thoroughbred retirement foundation. That was a blast. And the last time you were on the show, we talked about this new format.
For the NTRA free contest, which I know you were a fan of and I am a fan of, but I realized that there is another contingent of people out there, including your cohost on your show, the public handicapper podcast, Scott Carson, who don’t like this new format for the free NTRA contest in the past, it was a big giant field.
And the top few got prizes under the new. Situation. There’s a cutline and you have to finish in the top 10% of the first event. And then you reset and continue on the second day with the top few getting prizes dramatically reduces the amount of tour points given out. I think that was one of the complaints I heard about it, but I don’t know.
I can’t, I feel bad for somebody who has a really good day on day one and ends up with no tour points, but at the same time, I’m not convinced this isn’t the right thing to do in the bigger picture. I’m curious now that you run one, what your personal attitude is, what you would say to those critics.
First of all, we actually sent a survey out to all the tour members just this last week, asking them the question, which format did you prefer? The old all in one day or the two round format? Um, just so we could get the feedback. When people after they had actually had a chance to experience both. So what I’ll let you guess what you think the results were, um, of that survey.
I’m going to think that it’s a popular change and that the folks I talked to who are unhappy, my friend, Jim, Cbus one of the winners of the guests, the time contests back when I did that half marathon in London and also our friend, Scott Carson, I’m guessing they just happened to be potentially negatively affected by this time.
And that might be coloring their perceptions and that it’s a popular move overall, but you tell me. Well, as often happens in anything in the racing contest world, it’s split pretty much. Yeah. In the middle,
we will do going forward. And noticing as I’ve been made is probably alternate between format. So everyone gets a little bit of what they want. And then like next year we may tweak the rules. Some. On the, you know, we’ll see what we do, but if we keep the two round format next year, we may look at how we can tweak the format.
So more people get tour points right now. We couldn’t do anything this year because the rules are already pretty clear on, on how you treat a two round contest. But this is a little bit different. Um, We only award tour points in the second round because a lot of those two round contests allow people to buy into the second round or win in and they, and they can play in multiple early rounds.
And so it’s really inflates the number of players, if you count all the early rounds, but in this case, everybody only gets one shot. So. It may make more sense to score those a little bit differently than we do the other two round contests. So we might revisit that. I think that was a valid point that some of the people raised like Scott.
Um, uh, but we, we didn’t want to make any changes to anything like that this year, because the rules have already been set. Um, we didn’t specify a format, but we did specify how you score. Correct. You can’t, you can’t change the rules since I’ve gone back and forth with, uh, our buddy Dave, good Freud about this kind of stuff.
And it. I’m much more flexible about quote unquote changing rules. When you’re talking about something like a format, that’s not like codified in the rules. I don’t have a problem changing it. I don’t have a problem changing a rule when in the gang of four situation, when every single player signs off on a change, I don’t have problem with that, but you certainly can’t change like a codified rule of how tore points are awarded.
So as usual, I think you’re, you’re making the right. Call there as the head of the players committee on any way. That was just a little, a little five minutes Zied on tournament’s before we brought you in for the real reason I brought you here, Chris, and that is I got to give credit to another podcast.
First, my friends, I call them my friends. I’ve never met them in real life, but I feel like they’re my friends because they spend so much time in my ears via my earbuds, the fantasy focus, baseball podcast, Eric Caravelle and Tristen. Cockcroft. Well, whom I’ve listened to for the last bunch of years talking fantasy baseball, they did a really fun thing this year.
That reminded me of something that you did for us years ago, they are doing a league with their listeners where they drafted a bit fantasy baseball team among all the undrafted players. And then. It’s more complicated in baseball, what they call a vampire league, if it’s head to head format. And if they beat, if a vampire team beats one of the main teams, then they get to take one of their players.
So throughout the season, the vampire teams can become very, very strong. We’re not going to have that layer of it. But I do think obviously, you know, you grade heavily on a curve when evaluating the performance of someone picking from all others out of an event like the Derby draft years ago, Chris. You did it had an incredibly impressive performance where I can’t remember if there were three or four of us in the main draft.
You didn’t have to go down quite as far as you’ll have to go this year, but you drafted a team that ended up tying for first drafting from all other. Players, all other horses in the Derby draft. I just thought it might be a fun exercise to have you look at the 20 names that were selected by a Nick tomorrow, Benny South street, J K and myself the other day.
And give me who you would take if tasked with drafting a team of horses from all others for this year’s triple crown. Sure. It was fun. At first year, I had pretty strong opinion on a couple of the horses you had left out, which is what prompted me to do it. Um, This year, I don’t think I necessarily have that strong opinion, but the good part is it’s a triple crown draft, not just a Derby draft.
So, you know, um, by doing this, you are certainly probably spotting somebody, you know, at least 10 points out of the Derby, but you still have a chance to pick up points in the Preakness of Dormont. So that’s sort of the strategy that I’m going to going to employ is try to find horses. That were undrafted that are likely to run in one of the other triple crown races in particularly in particular, the Preakness, because that race has become in modern times.
Pretty much a default to the Derby winner. Everybody else just scatters, maybe one other person, one other horse we’ll, we’ll try the Preakness, but in a most of them, point to lesser derbies or the Belmont made, nobody wants to wheel back in two weeks unless the triple crown is on the line. So that’s one of the reasons I think actually triple crown is easier to win now than it ever has been before, because basically.
You’re kind of gifted the Preakness, if you’re a good horse. Um, so I’m going to try to pick up points in the Preakness and then maybe in the Belmont, that’s sort of the strategy. I like the sound of that. Is there one that you have a strong opinion on or are you really, is this just a case of picking from all others?
And are you tempted at all to grab horses that you know, will have a spot in the Derby starting gate? There’s a couple of runners, the international runners, three of them. Who you could take, I believe who were, who were undrafted, you could start there, or you could start going straight with a Preakness hopeful.
Yeah. I’m going to start with one Derby horse just to give myself a chance to pick up some points. I don’t expect to have the winner, but I’m going to pick a horse, I think might be able to, you know, break into, you know, hit the board. Uh, and then the rest of my picks, I’ll spin, trying to, um, Target the Preakness of the Belmont.
All right, well, let’s start it off. Who would be your first selection? Well, my first selection will be high call who didn’t get drafted by any of you in the first draft. He’s the kind of worse. That I think clunk up for a piece is what I’m hoping for. Yeah. And, and my, and my really be written that way, you know, to, to make one run and see how, see how good he is.
We probably should pay down to fourth. I realized we’ve we set this up as a wind place show thing. I think we said 20, 10 and five, a horse, like high call. I could definitely see running on for that fourth spot, but I mean, Hey, if, if you think a horse can run on for fourth, it’s kind of splitting hairs to say he couldn’t run on for third, right?
Right. I mean, and he is, I mean, he’s a horse. He’s really not bred to route, but his running styles, he completely shuts off early and only runs the last quarter. And I think that will be the strategy and the Derby. So, you know, most of these horses will be really gassed in that last quarter of a mile and hopefully high call can get in the clear and be finishing in my pickups and pieces.
So that that’s sort of my, my, my Derby horse. I’m hoping I don’t expect them to win, but I’m thinking maybe I can get a third. And pick up a few points. So I’m not quite as far in the whole heading into the other two races. I like the sound of that. And then when you look at the Preakness, what are you thinking?
Well, I tried to find maybe a really good horse and a horse. I’m pretty confident will be in the Preakness. So the one I’m pretty confident that they’ll put in the Preakness. I haven’t been able to find anything on this because. You just don’t get much coverage for any of the horses that aren’t in the Derby, but Owen Dale really looked impressive in the, um, what was the, uh, you know, Brad cost is red hot.
It seems like a real logical place to start this worse. Next time would be in the Preakness. I know for a fact that that’s where they’re pointing him, but that’s where I would give it a shot. I mean, the horse can repeat what he did last time. Like I said, usually for the Derby bunch, you only have to be the Derby winner and one other horse, so you can take a shot there.
So that was my, probably my second choice. I think I have a good chance maybe to hit the board and maybe even win a pregnant with Owendale. So then I decided I would go with maybe the most talented horse that was now. It’s kind of fallen out of favor with everybody. But I’m thinking maybe this worst runs on the Pat de Nile and runs off the screen and is stable.
Mate. Doesn’t win the Derby. They might get, take a shot in the pregnancy because it’s the kind of worst that can certainly win that race. And that’s hidden scroll. I love it. I love that one too. To me, he’s ultra talented. Um, They probably pushed him a little too fast, um, and tried some experiments that failed in the Florida Derby.
But I think they probably learned a lot from that. He’s got a trainer who’s very smart, always thinking big picture and thinking ahead, I’m a little worried that they won’t wheel back in the Preakness, but I’m thinking, man, if this horse just freaks in the Pat day mile, when it’s under wraps and past Tacitus, doesn’t.
When the Derby, um, that the connections might say, Hey, let’s take a shot in the pregnancy. This worse is the best, worst, you know, in training. And I’m not saying he is, but I mean, he’s the kind that could really run a jaw dropper on Derby day. So he’s shown flashes of brilliant brilliance for sure. Halfway through your spiel.
I wasn’t sure if you were going to go hidden scroll or Instagrammed with that pick, and I’m curious to hear where your team goes next. Instagram. I gave him a lot of thought, but the connections are so weird and conservative. I just didn’t see them wheeling back in the Preakness. And I think they’re planning to run in the Pat day mile.
And I just, I don’t see them wheeling back also, I think hidden scrolls, just a lot more talented, um, as more upside, at least at the classic distances, I do think Instagram’s a nice horse, but he. Is probably better suited at shorter distances. Um, but we’ll see, I know there’s connections that they didn’t really care about the triple crown and they’d rather win the Travers and the breeders cup.
And so I, I’m just a little nervous about him ever getting into the, into a triple crown race. I think he’s one, you know, if the listeners want to play along with this game, That’s one they might want to consider putting in their stable because he is a good horse. And I, you know, he might, he might be in one of the triple crown races and I am going to offer that opportunity to listeners.
I have two different games. You can play along with us on Twitter. We’ll get to them after you round out your team. Chris. So before I rounded out a couple other kind of Instagram types that I considered, but decided they’re probably not going to run and triple crown races, one was mine control who. He looked really good in his last race, cutting back, but they have run him longer before, but I think maybe they’ve decided that they’ll keep him, you know, at one turn, which is why I didn’t pick him.
But you know, he’s a talented horse and much better. The Baffert horse that ran second to mind control with another horse with some talent. Um, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either one of those in the Pat day mile as well. Um, But I just don’t. I think that they decided with those two that they probably won’t be running in a two turn race, like the Preakness or the Delmont.
So I, I passed on those, but those are talented horses that you could pick. Um, but the ones that I went for, I was trying to go more for the Belmont. Maybe the horses that’ll go like Peter pan Belmont route, or maybe even running the Preakness who knows. And that, that, that is, um, two horses that had really rough trips in the wood.
Um, I don’t know if you remember that race was kind of a rodeo turned. Yeah. And, uh, out shine and final jeopardy where two horses, I thought figured nicely in that race. Um, I thought Tacitus was the best horse, but I thought those two were competitive and. Neither really had a chance to run, but both are the kind that could end up in going like a Peter pan Belmont route, or maybe even the Preakness.
So I thought those two out shine and the final jeopardy. Um, were horses that I could throw in there, hoping that I can get, um, a start out of each of those in the triple crown. I think it’s a good team. I D I mean, I w you’re obviously would be a huge dog against the established teams, which I’ll recap in a minute for listeners, and then to get to our, to get to our last two questions for you, Chris.
But. I think that among what was there, you did a fine job and folks who want to play along, I encourage you to do so. I’ll give you two options you can do so on Twitter, you can put, we won’t, we won’t steal vampire league. We’re going to call it the Alarmy league. You can pick your Alarmy league team and posted on Twitter and make sure to tag me and I’ll, I’ll make sure to get attract.
You could also do it as a comment on the, in the money podcast blog. And that actually might be easier. I mean, it’s fun to tweet it and that might keep the conversation going. So do one, do both. Whatever suits you and whichever team ends up with the most points. According to that same scheme, the three triple crown races, 20 for a win 10 for a place five for a show.
I won’t commit to it. Specific prize we’ll do like we did with the marathon half marathon where I come up with a custom prize for you. I just sent out pretty intense cocktail kits last week to friends of the show. Marshall Graham and Jim Cbus. Obviously we consider you all. Friends of the show. We’ll see what you guys and gals can do with this competition.
Can I make one comment on your other contest you had? I thought that was funny. Um, given what happened with the CRA you know, the wild fours, um, the NAC contest where people just get fours all the way through, well, your winners of your contest just took a while. Secretary its final time. And I sat there and figured out how fast is Pete gonna run based on his SAS performances.
And I failed miserably. So let’s just show him handicapping. Doesn’t always pay off better to be lucky. There was also some intent, funny enough, the guy who was technically 20 seconds behind, but I blurred the photo and called it a dead heat. Marshall Graham used handicapping and knew he has not run in half marathons, but his wife Theresa and accomplished half marathon runner.
And he sorta knew. That it’s, it’s not uncommon, especially when the half isn’t like the stated goal for it to be a little bit slower than you might think. He, he actually did the best job of handicapping. It just happened to come 20 seconds off of the secretary of time. He wasn’t thinking about the secretary of time and the idea that he was likely to be skunked by that all parts of the reasons I blurred the photo.
I do think Jim and Paul Matisse just picked it because it was secretary it’s a. Winning time of the, of the Belmont stakes. But anyway, that was a lot of fun and this’ll be a lot of fun too. Let me recap the teams. And then Chris, I’m just going to let you ask you who you would pick team wise. Who do you think the favorite is for this thing from the established teams?
And then I just want a quick thought from you about who you think is going to win this year’s Kentucky Derby. We’ll start with J K. He ended up with Omaha beach via coma improbable. Intrepid heart and Warrior’s charge. I ended up with Tacitus code of honor, long range, Tati win-win win and country house.
Benny. His team looks like this game winner bourbon war spinoff by my standards and war of will. And then Nick tomorrow ends up with Roadster, maximum security tax, cutting humor, and another twist of fate. Who do you think is the chalk in our little contests? Well, I think, um, I liked probably your picks. I liked just because I like your top pick and probably JK, I think he’s pretty strong at the top with his picks.
Um, that, so I’d probably go with the two of you as the favorite. I’m not probably Jonathan has a little stronger team overall, but his bottom. He was pretty speculative there in the last, his last couple of picks. Fair enough. No, if you have a horse that if you have the Derby winner, you have a tremendous advantage because the Derby winner is likely to win or place in the Preakness as well.
So, Um, you know, that’s really hard to overcome. Um, you did it though. You did it back in the first year that we did the, the, the, the debut of the, the Alarmy league. When I had Nyquist and thought I had the field over a barrel and ended up no better than a, than a three-way tie. We basically, we called it a three-way tie for last, with JK even farther back than that.
Of course, the following year, JK redeemed himself with his kitchen slam. Obviously he had the Derby winner there. And then last year folks, remember I traded with you Chris for the first pick because I had such confidence in justify and obviously that one worked out. Okay. But yeah, you’re absolutely right about the Derby winner, you know, but the other years it’s been the guy who picks the Derby winner.
Uh, wins. And I can say guy in this, we haven’t had a female participant. We’ll have to, we’ll have to revise that, I think as soon as next year. All right, let’s hear your thoughts, Chris, before we let you get outta here about the Derby in general this year, do you have a selection? Do you have any strong opinions going on?
Yeah, two things. One, if I were describe a race where it’s a big field and going into the first turn, it’s a rodeo under the bunch of banging around and. It’s a hotter link pace. And the horse that wins doesn’t get caught up in that hot pace, but it’s forwardly placed and it makes a move when the rider ass and it finishes strong.
You know, what race would come to mind if I described that, you know, what would be the race you think about when you hear that? I mean, it sounds a bit like the Kentucky Derby, doesn’t it? Exactly, but it also sounds just like the wooden Memorial to me. Um, you got a big field, you had a rodeo on the first turn, you know, the winter got slammed around, shook it off.
It was a really hot paste, but it was floridly placed, but not too close to the pace and then made a nice move when asked and then just finished out the race. And that was Tacitus. So to me, you know, he’s already run the Derby. Uh, it wasn’t against all the best horses, but I thought it was a solid field.
Um, and you know, he’s got great breeding top and bottom for the Derby. He’s got a hall of fame trainer who loved when the Derby’s never won it. The one thing missing on his resume, he’s got a eclipse award winning jockey that’s young and hungry, and certainly would like to win a Derby and he’s won a triple crown race before.
So. You know, to me, that’s the kind of horse that ticks all the boxes and he’s very likely to be, you know, the fifth choice in the wagering behind the three Baffert horses in Omaha beach. So you’ll get some value. You might even get some double digit odds, but at least probably seven or eight to one. Um, so to me, he is, he’ll be my key horse.
In the Derby. Um, I also do I tweeted this or we did a blog on your blog site about I project out the final times for the mile and a quarter based on the nine for a long preps for the Derby using a math model and pass it to us, um, projected to be the fastest horse. So that’s another big plus in his favor.
So to me, you know, Uh, he just seems like the obvious pick. That’s why I kind of like your play because I think you have the most likely winner. Um, not by a lot. I mean, there’s other good horses. It’s kind of a wide open Derby, but you know, for me, this is pretty easy. I’m not going to have to sweat through my key horses.
Um, I’m I liked Tacitus. I’m not going to bet the mortgage on him or anything, but he’ll be the key to my tickets, right? From your mouth to God’s ears, Chris and we played in the earlier segment of this show, a little Derby buy, sell, hold Tacitus. I believe on the map, he has to be double digits and currently available.
And this is. Good news for those of you listening from the UK and Ireland. And I know there’s a whole bunch of you out there available at 14 to one, I imagine you could get stuck in at that price, Chris, uh, within each way, possibility to quarter the odds, if you could run in the top three. Yeah, that’s definitely by for me.
I mean, I, like I said, I think he just. Fits everything now, it doesn’t mean he’s going to win. Uh, but, uh, you know, he’s an obvious play. I just don’t see any real negatives with that horse. And plus I like, he’s not a great work horse. I mean, there was a legendary times when hidden scroll would just crush him and work out.
So he’s not going to wow. Anybody in the mornings that, so he was priced. Shouldn’t go down any, if it’s 14 to one now I know, unless one of the top. You know, backward horse drops out or something. Um, you know, I don’t think his price is going to go down based on his, you know, what people say about him and it’s morning.
Um, I want just another word from you, Chris, about the piece you wrote and the model that you used. I know you’ve inspired our sort of in-house quant John to do a little bit of digging with his own along the same lines as you, but using some of his own methodology. Very curious to hear what you think about his take on your.
Uh, the idea you started there about projecting out the time, but curious to just let you plug for a minute, that piece and folks can go on the blog and find it. And I’ll send out the link again as well. A little bit about your methodology. Yeah. Um, well, the reason I do this, um, I actually started this a long time ago when I was in college.
I built a model as a, uh, I got, I talked my instructor. My math professor into letting me, um, write this model to pick Derby winners as a project. Uh, um, so that’s how I got started, but, you know, it’s a hard part of the journey that makes it really unique is you have all these horses that have never gone that distance of, you know, a mile and a quarter.
Uh, and so it’s trying to figure out which ones will man, you know, run well at that distance and which ones won’t. And most people rely on things like breeding, which I think has lost some of its value because horses just are bred to go a mile and a quarter, the ones that are just usually aren’t that fast, at least not on a dirt.
And then people do things like, well, they look at the final quarter mile or final eighth, or that the horse ran and they’re looking at the raw times. You know, that’s got all kinds of problems with it, just looking at raw times and then even looking at late pace figures, they’re so heavily influenced by the early pace.
It can be really misleading it for horse, you know, runs slow. And that last part of the race, but they went really fast early. It doesn’t factor that in or on the inverse of that. If they go really slow early on, they’re obviously going to finish up stronger. Um, and so. You know, I wanted to come up with a way to, to try to figure out they’re going to go a mile and a quarter on based on how they ran taking all that into account.
So I built a model that basically fits a curve to the way the horses internal fractions, um, went. So basically horses and on dirt races slowed down at the end. And so it sort of projects how much they’re slowing down and says, okay, well, this is how they ran a mile and eight. Then we’re going to project it out to a mile and a quarter to be this final time.
So it takes into account how fast they went early and how fast they went late. And, um, averages that out. Um, does it in a, I don’t get into the math, but it’s not a linear curve. So there’s a little bit more to the math and standard kind of linear regression and, um, It’s uh, I, I use time form us adjusted fractions, um, cause they actually take into account the track barrier and, and adjust the fractional times.
I used to do all that myself, but it was hard. It may do a better job than I do. So I used those questions and do it. And I’ve been doing that for the last five years. And the fastest projection is one, three of the five. Justify was third fastness last year and one, and the Nyquist was the one sort of outlier.
He only projected out to be like the sixth fastest based on his score to Derby, but he won, I think, you know, so it, it projects out pretty well. Although a lot of those horses were favorites, so I’m not sure if take that into account, but, um, you know, this year it picks assets as the fastest horse. Um, which probably, uh, might surprise a few people, Omaha beach and improbable, or right near the top.
But tax is probably a sneaky good horse from a value standpoint, because he’ll likely be at least 20 to one. And certainly nobody’s talking about him as a Derby contender. I thought the wooden Memorial came up really strong and he is probably a value play based on the way he projects out. Um, and the horses.
That are favorites that don’t project. Well at all, our first Roadster, who is the horse I’m against in the Derby. I hope I get some value by playing against him. I think he’s by far the most overrated Baffert horse, I thought he really tripped out in the San Anita Derby and it still was low on the projection, uh, game winner.
I’m a little more forgiving up because he, he ran an extra quarter of a mile in that race. Um, yeah. And so, and I don’t take in, uh, or kind form us, doesn’t take into account ground loss, and I think that was legitimate ground loss in that race and get factored that, and he’s probably near the top on the projections.
Also, you have to keep in mind that. Um, Roadster had to win that race, or he probably wouldn’t be in the Derby. So, you know, Baffert had to have him cranked up and had to want him to win. He probably, we didn’t really want game winner to win that race because then Roadster wouldn’t have made the Derby. So to me, he just wanted game winner to run a good race.
And I wouldn’t even be surprised if he didn’t tell, I think it was Rosario. Who’s riding him, you know, keep this horse out wide out of trouble, you know? Um, but I, I think. Game winner can certainly turn the tables on Roadster in the Derby. I expect them to. Um, so anyway, that’s kind of what I do with that. I think it’s the best way.
It’s just one piece of information by things. A lot better than looking at breeding or final fractions or late pace in terms of. Trying to figure it out who will run well at the mile and quarter distance. Fascinating. And I look forward to, uh, what John Kamado does with his numbers. And who knows, maybe he’ll want to talk to you Chris before, during or after he puts that together, but he certainly was inspired by your work and it makes a good read.
Chris gave you most of the dope right there, but it’s worth reading the whole piece. Check it out in the money podcast.com. And again, I’ll send it around again, Chris, thank you so much for your time this morning. You bet. And I love talking about racing. I love the podcast and, um, certainly the Derby is something we’ll have fun talking about.
For the next couple of weeks. Thank you my friend. Okay. Up next, we have my colleague over at sky sports racing, Tim Carroll coming along to talk about winks and put her career in perspective. But first we’re going to have a message from black type thoroughbreds. Did you ever wonder what it would be like to own your own professional sports franchise?
Well, we can’t offer you that, but we can offer you the chance to compete in thoroughbred racing at its highest levels. Black type thoroughbreds is a new public partnership that can put you in the winner circle for more information about thoroughbred ownership, contact Jake Ballis of black type thoroughbreds.
Go to black type tb.com. For more information, that web address, once again is black type tb.com. And now I’d like to welcome to the, in the money players podcast, a man who has many credits on his resume, he writes email@example.com. He is a pundit on sky sports racing expert in international racing of all stripes.
Also an ex rider from long ago, as he described it to me, I’m talking about my friend, Tim, Carol, how are you? Yeah, I’m wonderful. Thank you, Peter. When you say a long time ago, I think it was about five stone ago for like, I don’t want to say how many years ago, but it was quite some time. Well, I’ve been a big fan of your work, the written word.
And on TV, and I’m always very interested to hear what you’ve had to say over the last few years about this special story from your native land. That’s captured the racing world. I’m talking of course, about winks, who just had her final start. You were there on hand to witness it, but let’s not start at the end.
Let’s start at the beginning. When did you first become aware of winks and this special story that was brewing? Well, I can, I can remember if you go back home four years ago. Now, when her winning streak began, that was at a place called the sunshine coast, which is just North of Brisbane, not a major race record, a good race track, not a major race track.
And she went around and a handy little race there. And I remember watching, I’d never heard of her at that stage. And I remember watching it from here in Europe and I saw this horse, I think it was about 16 runners and she was out the back and she was in a possible position. And the next thing you knew, she took off, she went straight past the whole field.
She won the race and, uh, it was a lady by the name of Larry Cassidy wrote that day. And he actually jumped off. I didn’t know it at the time. And he said, I think this might be the best horse I’ve ever written. Now Larry was, uh, at one point was riding Sunline, who’s probably the greatest mayor or certainly one of the greatest manners ever.
They come out of New Zealand. And I remember thinking at the time, Peter and I, I didn’t have the slide rules or anything like that, but just visually I remember thinking. What the heck is this thing, because honestly she must have run the last three furlongs and about 32 and a half seconds that day. And seemingly did with a bit in the locker for those who’ve been under a rock.
Uh, tell us about what’s happened to her since it’s been a story that’s captivated portions of the racing fans all over the world, even in America, but I’m sure there are some people listening who have heard the name, but don’t really know what all the fuss is about. Give me a description of the run.
Well, since then four years later, undefeated twenty-five group ones, which is a world record, no horses if for one 25 group ones, uh, four years under the feet of the, so I’d mentioned, uh, during that time she’s won 33 races. She started left-handed she’s done a right-handed. She started on a rock, hard track.
She’s done it on a heavy aide. She started over seven furlongs over seven and a half. Furlongs over a mile and a mile and a quarter. I hear she’s been susceptible to speed. And then she has to meet the middle distance horses and probably one of the most incredible performances over a period of time.
I’ve always said, Peter, that. The two best horses I’ve ever seen. Ironically, art Australia, one secretariat and one, and the other one’s sprang call, but we’ve all watched your respect. So as we know, secretary had had a very busy two and three-year-olds season, but comparatively speaking, now they were around for a very short time for, for a horse to go four years undefeated and a major racing jurisdiction taken on all comers at the top level, a group, one level it’s nearly, well, it is unheard of.
It’s the longest winning streak. In professional racing, since the mayor called King skim. Now you’ve got to go back to the 18 hundreds when you talk about King skimp, no, back back before, even our times. So, you know, you know, you’re getting, you know, you’re getting back into it. What, in your opinion was her best day?
Oh, look, it’s a really good question. I, I I’d have to probably say the mile now. I know that, that sounds a little bit. Well, when I say the mile, actually it’d be a mile or 10 for lungs because the performance is over those two trips. That’s where she ran a top ratings. Um, and when you have a look at the writings, it’s incredible to think that she popped out.
I’m told about time for him writing tears simply because they global, she popped out one 30 fours for fun on a regular basis, practically every campaign. But the one thing about 10 furlongs is that I suppose that she had more chance in that. A couple of times, we nearly saw a beaten over seven furlongs from speed bias.
Whereas over 10 for alarms, the closest city horse ever got to her over 10 for lumps of humidors finished the link behind the now and the Cox plate. And to be fair, she was given an atypical, arrogant ride. I issues. Written like a good thing every time. I usually not always drop out the back, but she’d drop out and then she’d come circle the whole field.
He never wanted to get her into trouble. Well, not since the Doncaster anyway, but that’s another story. Um, when she covered extra ground that day and that’s the closest she ever got beaten, uh, doc, to be beaten over 10 Furlong. So look anywhere from a mile to 10 furlongs. Although if she came to Europe, I would suggest that she would have been untouchable at the mile.
I’m probably untouchable at 10 furlongs in recent years. I do want to talk about the decision not to ship, but we’ll, we’ll get there. We’ll get there in a minute. I want to go next to this weekend in Sydney. And what the atmosphere was like for you in your racing career had been to the races a few times.
Where did that experience of being at the races rank? What was it like for you to be there on hand for when they brought the curtain down on her career? Peter hand on heart. I’ve been fortunate enough to go to big races all around the world. I’ve been to the Kentucky Derby. I’ve been to the breeders numerous times, several other American meetings.
I’ve been to all the big ones in Europe that you can think of. I’ve been to, I think, 13 of the last 14 arcs. And I say this hand on heart without waving the Australian flag, simply as a racing fan. It’s the most incredible race day I’ve ever gone to simply because, well, the only way I can explain it, firstly, it was packed to the rafters.
It won’t be the first race meeting it’s been packed to the rafters, but it was packed to the rafters. And the only way I could sort of explain it’s like when you go to the football for a big matchup, I’ve never been to a super bowl, but let’s say a super bowl. But the only difference is that everyone there has gone for the one team.
Every single one and the amount of kids, the amount of family. So the amount of people that have never been to the races. Before were there because it was her last run and she’s the national icon. And this one thing I’m very proud of in Australia, we do love our champions. We’ve we do put them on a pedestal and we, we adore them and we adored winks.
We adored black caviar. We adored phar lap of course, ran in America as well. But yeah. It is the most incredible race day I’ve ever been to. If you’re talking about emotion, if you’re talking about passion, if you’re talking about ambience and field, I’ve never experienced the race day. Like it she’s won so many of her races in imperious fashion, the results seeming almost preordained.
What was it like in terms of putting your, uh, your form expert hat on before the race? Was there any doubt as to what was going to happen at the end there over the weekend and winks his final stock? Purely from a form perspective, you’d have to say no, but like everyone there, I, I wanted the fairytale ending.
I thought she deserved a fairy tale ending. Now, ironically, Peter, a couple of horses, a couple of a champion Australian horses that had their, their final start in that race had been beaten. Long row in our table. Now the irony in that is that long row and octagonal were owned by Bob Ingam. Who’s the father Debbie competer.
So the owner of winks and at one stage, Debbie was saying to the other convictions. Sure. This is the best as a last race, but. From a full perspective, I’d say no, but there was a really interesting run that called he’s eminent. He was formerly trained here in Europe and he was known in the same way that he was, he was a really good three-year old.
He finished the lip behind craftsman when he finished fourth in a Darby and he, he should have actually finished in front of him. The rider threw away the WebEx dentally and he got into a little bit of trouble as well. He, he probably should have finished second in that, uh, Not long after that. He went to France now.
Okay. Was only a group, two race, but I tell you what it was a group, one race on paper. He absolutely gave them a donkey licking that day. Now in behind them. Let’s recollect us. Who’s probably been considered to be the best miser in Europe this year. But parameter was in behind him as well, parameter at one of the pre the jockey club.
Or if you like the, the, the French Darbin, he, he beat them and he beat them very, very easily. He’s a horse that likes to go from the front and the feeling was if he got on the front end. And got some soft sectionals and kicked, it could take a lot of running down, but he jumped out of the stores didn’t seem to want to be there.
And the next thing you knew, he was out the back somewhere and he ended up getting beaten the equivalent of about 45 pounds. So all’s well, that ends well, but that was about the only concern because. Of all the other horses and there are some pretty handy horses there and the likes of happy clapper and Hartnell.
She’d met them all before and as good as they are, she’d beaten them and beaten them easily all before. So from a foreign perspective, you’d have to say no, there was nothing there that could be to accept bad. There you go. Well, I’ve thought about her in some of the same terms that I thought about.
Zenyatta when she was running over here, don’t know how familiar you are with that great mayor’s work, but definitely captured the imagination of racing fans to the extreme, definitely prized in the overall body of her work, consistency and, and winning as opposed to always meeting the toughest challenges.
Now. In Zenyatta his case at the time I found myself wishing they’d taken more chances with her, but then at the end of her career, and in many ways, I feel like that last race was her best, even though she didn’t win. Right. And looking back over the years of her run. I remember thinking to myself, you know, I’ve been a little critical about them, not shipping to Saratoga about them not doing these things, but it’s also quite possible that the reason we’ve had this streak and it’s gone on for as long as it has, is precisely the careful.
Handling along the way now with winks, I feel like it’s similar, very much captured the public’s imagination, obviously drawn the praise of form experts such as yourself, but there is another camp and I’ll, I’m going to, uh, we haven’t discussed Kevin Blake, my good friend, and I assume our mutual friend much, but he may, he makes an interesting case in his work.
And I’m not saying that I agree with it, but it’s interesting to read the perspective that. I’m just going to boil it down to this. You should go to the, at the racist site and read it listeners if you’re interested, but it boils down to the idea that he would hold his highest praise because of not taking chances.
And then he also cast some aspersions about the competition she’s faced, which is. To me, almost a separate argument. So this is very open-ended, but I’m going to I’ll start it with a more pointed question to you. And that is, do you think it was the right decision for them to take the fairly conservative path that they chose with winks throughout these last four years?
It’s it’s a really good question, because to be honest with you, Peter, I would loved to have seen her in Europe because in my humble opinion, if she ran the form, I’ve got a fair idea what would have happened. And that would have shoved a lot of people in this part of the world, just quietly. Um, I, it’s a really difficult one.
I’ve got to explain something here. What, what. Your listeners need to understand is the Cox plate to anyone in Australia. Anyone in New Zealand is the Holy grail. That’s the reason you don’t see Australia, New Zealand horses at the breeders because it clashes with the Cox plate. And that’s where our best horses go.
It’s a little bit like the breeders cup classic or, or the arc in France. Now I’m not saying it’s necessarily got the quality of. But, uh, those two races year in, year out, mind you horses that have won the Cox play the one major races, including the bit breeders’ cup classic all around the world, but it is the holding ground.
And, and this year, or last year, I should say she had a shot at becoming the first horse ever to win four Cox plates. Now, basically their choice was to come over here for a queen Anne, which was a pretty weak renewal. Or to go for that history, making fourth Cox play in that scenario? No, not at all. I don’t blame them for not leaving the Australian shores.
At that point, I would have liked to have seen her over here, but what you’ve got to remember, and I, I made this point to. Kevin as well. There’s no point coming to Europe, unless you can beat something that can enhance your reputation. Now she’s a peak rate of one 30, two horse, or one 34 time form. But that’s with a bullet because as Kevin and a few other people have pointed out, there’s never been anything in Australia that can push them past that point.
But as I said to Kevin, after his article came out, I said, if you look at the last two years in Europe, Now you’ve got to work on work on the theory that they would have brought her over here. And her races would have been somewhere between seven furlongs and a mile and a quarter because that’s what she runs over and said, Amy, the amount of horses that can push her above one 32, and the only horse we could come up with.
In that two year period from 74 long store mile and a quarter was craftsman. Now tell you what, it’s a long way to go all the way from Australia to Europe to potentially meet a horse. It’s not going to turn up. Well, he’s only going to turn up as the heavens open up because they wouldn’t start him. And this was a rain effected track.
So yeah. My answer to that is I would love to have seen her in Europe or elsewhere for that matter, but only against quality opposition, because what would happen if she came over here and she won last year’s queen and against the horse who at the time, I think it was right at about one 14, one 15 and say she won it by a couple of legs because one thing that shoe Bowman and Chris Waller insisted on.
If you had a race one, they never opened the route. They just let it coast to the line. So if she came over here and I could promise you if she ran the forum, she would have won the queen Anne on the bride on last year, but she would’ve only won it by two or three because they wouldn’t have opened the round.
And then all the naysayers will be coming out saying, Oh, she’s only beaten the one 15 horse to three links. She isn’t that good. So she was on a little bit of, if I can use an Australian saying Peter, she was on a bit of a hiding to nothing. If she came over here, what she needed, she needed to meet.
Something like a golden Cobra over a mile, or see the stones over a mile and a quarter. And they just weren’t here. Enables always kept to a mile and a half. Uh, unfortunately, um, there was a very good affiliate and name escapes me at the moment Centuria for, I think it was the Irish Philly. But she had the retaught halfway through the season because of injury alpha Centauri.
Sure. Yeah. The Jessica Harrington writer who looks so brilliant for a minute silly, although, you know, the break-ins tell us wings was superior, but that could have been a nice matchup because alpha Centuri would have sat in front of her. So tactically, it could’ve, it could have got a bit interesting, but we’ve cracks mode and he’s the only horse because he’s got a similar rating to wing.
So he’s the only one that potentially could have enhanced her reputation. He only turns up if the track’s crying affected. So yeah. I wouldn’t have saw the point in coming in the last year or two, but if there’s a golden Cobra type here, if there’s a see the stars at a level on a Frankel, but mind you, I’m not about to say weeks, it’s going to be Frank left with my old, I might do.
If I had to take him on with any horse was seen in the last seven or eight years, she’s the one that I’d take him on with, but I don’t think there was anything here that could enhance the reputation. The only thing that would approve. And the only thing that would approve him was that she can try. Right.
Well, which is something, I mean that that’s not nothing. And that is something that Zenyatta did end up doing, going to, going to Oaklawn. She didn’t. If I can ask you a question, do you, do you really think that they need to travel secretary to overseas to point if you’re coming out and they’ve sort of knocked the opposition of winks and in some ways they’re right.
In some ways they’re wrong, they kind of forget that two thirds of the stats are actually over seven furlongs to a mile. They keep talking about a 10 foot long format over here, but I’m telling you now, if you come out and win a Belmont by 31 links, I don’t care if it’s chalk. It just doesn’t matter. That is a world-class, but you’ve just, that’s the greatest performance I’ve ever seen on the racetrack turf, including Frankl, turf or dirt.
It’s the greatest thing I’ve ever seen. One. To think that that horse still holds the record for every leg of the triple crown it’s mind blowing. It is amazing. Yeah. What, what defines a champion? A champion is basically something called someone or a homeless that can do things that other horses can’t.
Well, I can tell you wings undefeated for four years. Now no horse in Australia has ever done that. We’ve had champions when all around the world, she’s got the three quickest times on the Cox plate, the number one weight for age, race in the Southern hemisphere quickened. And so you think she’s a superior horse to him?
He came to Europe, he, he beat the reigning art Darby and Oaks winner. She’s a better horse than him. Three quickest times in the Cox plate. I only forced to win four Cox plates. And this is, this is one I’m going to give you a new probably appreciate. I just played a, because I know you, you know how to do for them.
You know how to do sectionals in Europe. They’re a little bit behind the times on, on that sort of thing. But I remember watching them in the work stakes. I think it was a group two race and not many people realize that she missed the keg. They’ll talk about the run. They say, Oh yeah, she missed the kick.
She won by length and she’d beat Fox play. Obviously it’s a really good effort, but you know, she only big Fox play. What they don’t realize is that day she broke 11 seconds, every single one of the last three firms. Now she did that after missing a kid by five to six links and circling the field. Don’t I promise you, Peter, I’ve gone back through all of my data.
I’ve gone back through other people’s data. I’ve never found a horse. That’s broken 11 seconds, but every one of the final three furlongs at Randwick. Now that includes black caveat. That includes takeover targets. Are you group one? Winning sprinters. On the global stage, she didn’t miss the kick five, six links over a seven foot long circling the field.
I mean, It’s ridiculous. It is absurd. Now how important, obviously we’ve been talking about this informed terms and some of the listeners might get a little bit lost in the left, in the dust when it comes to, when we start talking about form numbers, because of course our culture is so much of a speed figure culture as opposed to form ratings.
But at the end of the day, they’re trying to do the same things. I’m just curious if speed figures exist really in Australia and you have any. Speed figure perspective. Now here’s the thing with turf racing. The people need to know to my mind, very often the ability is going to be much more reflected in those closing sectionals that Tim was just citing on the turf as opposed to what the final time figure would be.
But I’m just curious if figure folks have, I’m just curious if there are any speed figures we can look at to enhance this discussion potentially. Peter. I haven’t actually got all the figures. I mean, but some way I know off the top of my head that might help a little bit. I mean, her ability to run sectionals is off the charts.
It’s, it’s incredible. When you do the comparatives with all the great Australian horses, not just the 10, furlongs not just the six of the. The item seven, the four long horses, even with the sprinters, it’s mad as Peter Moody has said, she basically comes out and runs the same sort of sectionals that the black caviar could, but she does it over a mile and a mile and a quarter.
I’ll tell you some interesting little stats that, that I know off the top of my head, when she won the Turnbull steaks over 10 furlongs at Flemington one day to be fair, Hugh Bowman, the basically put her in an impossible position and what you have to do. They go and reasonably slow. On the French. She’d got a long way back.
Once he had to do over the last six foot long, she ran the quickest. This isn’t a 10 Furlong race. She ran the quickest six final six furlongs of the day. Now that includes the group two, six foot long winner. On the day she ran the final quickest final five per lungs. The quickest final for the quickest final three, the quickest farmer too.
And the quickest funnels for along with the day. And that was over 10 furlongs and you know what she wanted on the brighter. Absolutely ridiculous. I’ll tell you something about the buyer. So we’ve got a minute, Peter, can I boil you’ve all the lists boring us at all. Keep on going. I find it hugely fascinating.
Simon Rowlands. Who’s a numbers man. Over there. We talked about him on the show a lot. Yeah. The listeners know Simon. Yeah. Yep. Yep. Puts a lot of stuff up on the ATO website and believe me it’s worth reading. Um, I was having to look at his fingers one day, uh, that resource talking about where she had the break at 11 seconds very far along the win the race after making a mess of the start.
Her leg speed got up to what they call a cadence of 2.61 to call it that in simple terms, she was striding out 2.61 times per second. Now, to put that in perspective, once you get up to about 2.5, you’re talking about a group one, five for a long sprinter, uh, to give you a good example, I won’t list all the horses, but I’ll give you one that your listeners will be well aware of lady a really who was a wonderfully quick.
Uh, brilliant sprinting, young filling lady. A really, I used to peak out at about 2.5, five, uh, maybe a little bit higher, but you never broke 2.6. So what that’s telling you is the leg speed of this horse to can, when grip one’s over 10 furlongs is quicker. Then a race horse to, can we improve one’s over five furlongs.
The other thing is too. And Peter, you’ll appreciate this. I’m on Turk. Anyway. It might be a little bit different on, on dirt. I’ll I’ll bow to your knowledge there, but on turf, basically a really good grip. One horse can sprint for about two Fairbanks and that’s it winks could do for four folks with this leg speed that was equivalent to a sprinter.
I, what that tells us if she was trained. To win a five foot long sprint, and I’m talking to serious grip one five for a long sprint, something like the King standard Royal Ascot diamond Jubilee over six burdens, the alcoholism, Dubai breeders’ cup turf spread. Semaglutide that not only. Pushy when it she’d actually be the horse to beat in it, if I was paying for it.
And this is a horse that when serious 10 for a long races. Um, so when you have a look at all those figures, this explains why she was afraid. If anyone there who’s really interested in how the science behind the horse, if you ever see any of the information Simon puts out, I definitely have a read of it because look, I’ll be honest.
There’s some stuff out there that I would question that isn’t maybe a good rate. And then there’s some things out there to the very good and Simon for mine is one of the best he’s tremendous. And we we’ve talked about them. We need to have him on again soon to talk about some things, just some of the great stuff you’ll find over there at the, at the races.com website, they let this American guy come on from time to time and write about the Kentucky Derby and the breeders’ cup.
You can skip him, but the rest of it is pretty solid stuff. Love having you on stakes. I believe you may be because look, we’re, we’re all keen on it. All the boys that. So when you’ve met them all day, they’re all keen on the American stuff. And to be fair, I think all of us like to think we’ve got a fairly good knowledge base, but it’s nothing like you all to say.
We love it when you come over there and can educate all of them. Well, you’re too kind, but it is a lot of fun and hopefully going to be back around the Royal ass. Meeting and hopefully working the Ascott meeting too, as a, bringing a perspective on some of the American runner. So, so that’ll be fun and hopefully we’ll get a chance to work together again very soon, but I really wanted to have you on to try to put this mayor into perspective, and I think you’ve done a great job doing that.
I think too often, especially in turf racing, people get very hung up on final times and I think it’s a very smart way to look at the world. When you’re looking at turf races in terms of late pace, Zenyatta is body of work on the synthetic looks a lot better when you stop talking about, Hey, here’s the final figure you got?
And you look at what either her late pace figure was, or just failing that. Looking at those raw times, she came home and. Horses have a lot of different ways of showing their class and showing their speed, even depending on what the demands of the race are. And I think you’ve done a great job putting that into perspective for, for us.
And we just want to give you an opportunity to leave with a closing thought on winks either what she meant to you or what she meant to the game in Australia and around the world. I think she did a lot for racing. I honestly think, and I include Franklin. I would say she’s raised the awareness of race in more than any other horse and secretary it’s certainly on the flat.
And I know that’s a big statement, but when you have a look at the way people talk about it, unfortunately, the Americans are very positive. The Europeans to be fair, mostly a positive, if you get a small number of that. But I actually think that’s got more to do a sporting rivalry than anything else.
What’s what she’s done for racing is incredible. And the fact that she was there for so long, if Frankel was around for four or five years, like she was there, maybe he would have done this as much as well. It looked to, to. To some RP by campaign or in, in my time, as I said, at the top of the show, I met the two best horses I’ve ever seen a non Australian horses.
So I don’t mind to split them Frankel and secretariat. I’ve always said I’ve never seen a horse that would beat black, heavier over six furlongs to their absolute best. But after those three, and in my time, I’m not going to go back. Too many years obvious. Well, I am actually, but not as many as I’d like to admit after that there’s a host of horses.
I think they’re on that next line. Your American Pharaoh’s you’ll see the stars, your wings, that’s the league she’s in for mine. And I think that. If you’re a non-biased person, you know how to break down races. I think most people would agree. Take a look. If you haven’t seen it already, folks go to YouTube.
Watch winks is body of work. One last question. Is there one race in particular, if somebody was just going to watch one race of winks to get a sense of what she was all about, which spot would you send them to? Oh, goodness. It’s like saying pick one role for Meryl Streep. I mean, there’s been so many good ones over the years.
I, I, if I can mention a couple very quickly and then I’ll give you one the Doncaster, because she carried a lot of weight to handicap, richest, handicapped mile race in the world, and she got knocked on the backside and she still won running away, incredible performance, the race where she misses the kick.
If you understand sectionals and you look at the figures behind it, go and watch that. But if you want to watch a race. That just makes your jaw drop without looking at any figures without any hard luck stories or anything. What’s your second Cox plate in 2016 when she wins by 10 links practically on the bridle.
And she has some very, very good horses in behind her that day. That was, that was just an incredible performance. Tim Carol, thank you so much for your time today. Thanks very much, Peter. I enjoyed it. And that’s going to do it for this edition of the, in the money players podcast. I want to thank our guests.
We’ll start with Jonathan kitchen and Sean Borman, who you heard up top. Then we segwayed into the Alarmy draft with Chris and we wrapped. Things up with Tim Carolyn, his tribute to winks really had a lot of fun today. Want to thank as always our friends at 10 strike racing and also the thoroughbred retirement foundation for their ongoing contributions to this program.
Most of all, I want to thank you. All of you, the listeners who make the show so much fun to do. You turned out in droves for our charity contest. We appreciate that. I want to see some participation in this Alarmy league as well on Twitter and over at, in the money podcast.com. Speaking of it, and the money podcast.com don’t sleep on all the great content over there.
In addition to the Chris Alarmy article, we mentioned. We’ve got these great trip notes pieces, not from Betty South street though. He’ll be back soon. But from our man blasts from us, Brian has been doing a great job going into the weeds on each of the horses competing in this year’s Kentucky Derby. And there’ll be more of those to come.
This show has been a production of in the money media, in the money media, his business manager is drew Courtney. I’m Peter Thomas foreign Itau. We’ll be back before you know, it. But you went all your photos.
Peter Thomas for Nitel one last time. Thank you all for listening today. If you can’t get enough of our act, make sure you tune in this week for the Caitlin select players podcast. Also make sure to check out the Keelan select website, Keelan select.com special offers for in the money players, podcast, listeners.
Over there. Enter the promo code ITM 19, to get details about the bet 300, get a hundred promotion as well as the rolling bet. 500. Get 50 promotions for more information, check out Keelan select.com.
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