Matt and JK discuss Vino Rosso and the older male division. Look forward to the Belmont and Met Mile. They also handicap weekend stakes from SA, CD, and BEL.
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You’re listening to the, in the money players podcast. Hello, and welcome to the end. The money players podcast. I am not your host back with you from the Brooklyn bunker up. Peter Thomas for Nitel is enjoying wine and other delicious things in Italy for his brother’s wedding. So I am here on my maiden voyage as a host.
I really should have just flipped the script with my guest today and let him host the show because he’s the professional. Um, and I should have just sat back and made stupid comments rather than having to direct the ship the entire time. But, uh, Nonetheless, whatever I did interview a jockey the other day for the first time.
So I guess maybe I’m a professional now, too, but our guests is TVs, Matt Bernier, Matty ice. What’s going on, tap and JK. That was a pretty good intro. That was a good impression of PTF. If I didn’t know any better, I would’ve thought it was him. Look, uh, I can promise that I’m not going to make fun of myself as much as Pete makes fun of me.
I’ll be a lot of ties and head to heads. If I go against myself. There’s a lot of things missing without PTs. So, uh, we’ll, we’ll, we’ll see if we can’t, uh, can’t make the magic happen. When I, when I found out that I had to host by myself, I thought the smart thing to do was to, to grab people I was comfortable with so that I didn’t have to, uh, you know, Dodge around the awkwardness of a, of an initial conversation.
I had Nick tomorrow on the Niara bet show. Have you on this show, we’re going to talk a little bit of, uh, you know, and we always have you on to talk about handicapping and races and stuff like that, but I wanted to kind of get into your process a little bit. We have some, some recap type situations we can talk about to look ahead to, to Belmont coming next week.
And then we’ll dive into some of this weekend’s steaks action, um, Matty ice. What, what, what is your process? I mean, I’ve talked about it on the show before. I mean, I am. Uh, I am a, uh, you know, DRF classic PPS, pull them up, look through initially, just one pass through. Then I want to grab the time form us. I want to write in the time form us numbers on the far right?
Just like the last three to have that visually there when I’m looking at one piece of paper. And then when I do my deep dive, I kind of go in order of the pace projector on time form us. I start in the front and I work to the back. Um, and then I pick up replays when, if, when, and if I need them, um, dig a little bit deeper on figures to find out if they’d come back and kind of been confirmed.
Uh, that’s kind of my quick overview. What’s kind of your process. Start to finish when you’re looking at these races. Yeah, there’s a lot of similarities there. You know, for the longest time I was going through and watching tape for every single runner in two and three replays at a time, and I said, this is, this is stupid.
What are we doing here? It’s taken me three hours to go over one or two races. So as more and more time has gone by, I think the, sort of the base of everything, kind of what you were alluding to. Uh, I use formulator from the racing form and I start off the beautiful thing about formulator too. You brought up writing in the time form ratings.
Um, depending on when you download the PPS from formulator, the time form ratings are actually incorporated in the running line. So, um, and for me, that’s been a giant. Sort of advantage and it’s made life a lot easier rather than just having to go through and do the manual work. Um, so I go through, I look, this might sound a little bit silly, but for me it’s a nice way to get a barometer and a gauge of how all these horses stack up against one another.
I go through and look for the highest last out buyer speed figure in the field and the highest last out raw time form rating, not pace incorporated. Um, and I’ll circle those. And, and for the most part, I’ll just subtract five points off that number. Um, so I’m looking at the benign Ridge right now, and I know we’ll talk about it in a little bit.
The highest last outlier in the field is value propositions. He earned a 90 and he earned a one Oh five time form us rating. The time form us rating. Isn’t actually the fastest in the field that belongs to Clinton maroon. He’s out at a one 11, you know, I’ve heard you in PTF and I believe you guys talked about it with Eric bile.
Like he was the one that, that kind of. Smoked it out, but I’ve referenced it a number of times. It’s usually about a 20 point difference between the buyers and the time form ratings. And to me, that’s a good way to gauge which figures are maybe a little bit sharper for a certain horse or whatever the case may be.
Sometimes the buyers are more accurate. Sometimes the time form ratings are more accurate, but. I’ll go through. I’ll see how many of those horses fit within that sort of five point differential on those two scales. And then, um, you know, from there, I’ll go and look in one by one, look at the pay situation and see where’s this horse typically positioned.
Is he going to be more of a closer, does he have a little bit of versatility? Can he go to the front? Can he sit off the pace if needed, whatever it may be. Uh, and then from there then I’ll start going through watching tape. Um, I’ll watch a little bit more probably than I should. Uh, I could save some, some valuable minutes as opposed to, you know, I don’t need to watch the tape on a 20 to one shot too often, but occasionally you’ll find a little bit of a nugget in there, but for me, that’s for the most part, that’s the basis.
And then I’ll go through a couple stats here and there, but yeah. Um, it’s, it’s most of the, sort of the key principles, you know, pace, class speed, you know, all those sorts of things. I think that’s, if you’re doing it otherwise, I think it’s a little bit difficult to, to really explain how you arrive at your conclusions.
Yeah, absolutely. I think that, um, that, that trying to incorporate all the information, I know that you’re a guy that tries to use as much as you can. I’m the same way I want as much information as I can get, and then I’ll try to make my decisions. Um, um, you know, based on that, I’ve never really heard you talk about the, the subtracting, the five points from the last figure to kind of get an idea of where these horses fit.
Do you do, do you take into account say the last race was just a really bad race, bad trip? You know, the horse normally runs 90 buyers has this one 78. Do you draw a line through that for this exercise and go to the second last race and kind of use that as the. As a jumping off point, or do you pretty, still stay pretty strict to the last race?
A figure. So when I take off that five points and let’s just use the buyers just for this little exercise, if I take five off to the pine Ridge, that brings me to an 85, then what I’ll do. Um, I have an annotating, uh, program on my computer. I’m sure most people do. I know you’ve got that iPad that you use.
Um, I’ll go through and I’ll highlight every 85 or greater speed figure that every horse has. And for me, just sort of looking at it on a much broader scale whenever I see a number of. Of highlighted figs. I know. Okay. This horse, at least as run, what I think is relatively fast and fast enough to win on a day like today now a horse that maybe the most recent run is considerably slower than I’ll sort of go through and sift through that and see, you know, was there a reason, was there a trip, uh, whatever the case may be.
Then if I feel like I can excuse the effort I will. And if I feel like it’s warranted and the horse actually earned a slower fig, um, then maybe you start needing to consider maybe the horse is tailing off form. Um, but yeah, I kind of go through and the other thing is for any horse that is lightly raced and perhaps hasn’t earned a figure that I think to date.
Is fast enough to win a race like this. I need to at least be able to look at it and say, I can project forward that this horse is going to move up to a race this fast enough to win in order for me to really get interested. So, um, with the lightly raced horses, there’s a lot of projection and a lot of sort of subjectivity that goes into it.
But when you get some horses that have run 15, 20 times, um, I’ve found it anyway and I’ve been doing it really since the very beginning. It’s been a nice, easy way for me to really look and separate horses that I think are. Actually contenders and horses that I don’t think are fast enough to win. So it’s kind of a similar idea to what Mike Maloney wrote in his book about bedding with an edge, kind of about his, uh, The lady calls them this performance, uh, figures or, or something.
I might’ve messed up exactly what that’s, what it is. Yeah. Essentially where he goes through and he, and he assigns each horse a number of where he thinks they can run today. If it happens to be an improving horse, like you had kinda mentioned, uh, that has been running nineties, but with a better trip today and that natural progression, maybe we’ll see a 95 and he’ll assign the horse and 95 performance figure to kind of.
Get an idea of where these horses lie within the handicapping picture and try to make a better, uh, assumption. Cause I think the biggest mistake that horse players make is starting at the top of the PPS and taking the deep dive, starting with right with horse number one and then a deep dive horse.
Number two, I think that you need to try to have a basic idea and a basic summary of the race as a whole before you start diving deeper, because I think it can be misleading at times. I used to find myself falling in love with inside horses, because that’s where my brain started. And you create these scenarios where the one horse to two horse to three horse, by the time you get to the 11, you already kind of fallen in love with a one through five or a variance of that.
So I think. Finding a way to kind of take a quick overview before you dive deeper as is definitely a, an exercise that’s worth considering. Yeah. And the other, the other thing too is, uh, and I don’t know, you know, for anyone that uses any kind of tech for handicapping, you know, I mean, obviously if you’re, I suppose you could even do it with the, you know, the paper version of the form or whatever PPS you use, um, for my little product here, uh, I have a surface and.
Uh, the program I use is called draw board and you can set it up where it’s basically page by page and I can actually sort of zoom out. And so again, I’m just using the pine Ridge as an example, uh, what is there? There’s eight horses in there. I can have it zoomed out to the point where I can see actually all eight of them at once.
And I look for the highlighted colors. I look for the yellow, for the buyers. I looked for the red for the time form ratings, and it’s an easier way for me. And to get the Pennine Ridge might not be the perfect example because there’s some lightly race horses that I think are gonna move forward. But, um, with races, with horses that have, have sort of gone out and done this thing in the past, Um, it’s just an easier way for my eye to really look and see like, okay, well, you know what?
This horse I’m making it up at of 20 races, 16 times, is there a fig that I think is going to be competitive in here? Obviously I need to look at this horse and that could be drawn at a post six or whatever it may be, you know? Absolutely. Um, moving on to some, some races we saw this weekend, you and I were talking a little bit before the show and, and, uh, we, Pete and I do this all the time where we start to have, uh, a handicapping conversation.
And then I just say, pause, let’s save it for the show. Um, because it usually comes out better the first time. W w what do you make and, uh, have, uh, Vino Rosso and the performance that we saw from him. Uh, on Monday at San Anita, obviously beating gift box, who, in my opinion is one of the top older horses, um, in the country.
Uh, McKinsey, in my opinion is the best gift box is beat McKinsey a couple of times. How could he not be in the mix for you? Uh, what did you think of Vino Rosa’s performance? Do you believe it? Um, are you going to be cutting in line to bet him moving forward? W where are you at with Vitaros? Well, so, I mean, I texted you when we were going back and forth about this show saying, asking the question and you said, put a button on it.
We’ll, we’ll bring it back. And I don’t know what to make of the horse. Uh, he’s a complete enigma to me because I go back to early on as a three-year-old. I thought he did some good things and I thought he was just kind of green, green as grass. Not really knew what he was doing. And as time continued to progress, he just continued to me whether it was the Belmont where I said, you know, maybe this is going to be the instance where he ends up running a big race.
And I know people are, we’ll go back to the, you know, instructions and all these other things. I mean, look, it is what it is, that’s in the past, but I didn’t think he ran a great race to begin with. He tried to win the race shore, but he, I don’t think he should have flattened as badly as he did. And then I thought his runs up at Saratoga were terrible.
So I looked at it and said, all right, well maybe the horse isn’t as good as I think maybe he could potentially be. And then they bring him back at seven, eight this year. And I always thought he was going to be a long-winded long distance kind of horse. He won the S the first seven eights race. I don’t remember which race it was.
And then he ran okay. Against world of trouble in the, uh, in the Carter. Uh, but it was, it was another just sort of nondescript effort. I just thought, all right, well, maybe he’s just decent. And then he shows up out there in California. And, uh, you know, for the most part, I never really thought he looked like a loser.
He just cruised up on the outside and, and blew the doors off of gift box. Now, look, I didn’t think it was a visually impressive finish from any of them. I thought they were all kinda just plotting home at the very end, but, um, I don’t know what to do with this horse going forward because you brought it up.
If you look at gift box and you think he’s one of the best older horses in the country, I, I don’t, you know, it’s obviously not an apples to apples comparison, but because he beat him on the square, I think you have to look at a horse like. Vino Rosso and say he at least fits in there. I think from a talent standpoint, I don’t think either of them are as talent as McKinsey, but we’ve talked about it in the past.
I mean, distance is the great equalizer. I don’t think McKinsey wants any bit of 10 furlongs. I think the only reason that the big cap was as close as it was, because he is so talented. Um, so, you know, that leads me to just kind of searching for, you know, who’s. I don’t know who bosses in the older division.
I mean, it’s going to sound a little bit silly for some people I’m sure. But, um, I don’t know if I love them in a flat, at a flat mile when he comes over for the met, but. Say what you will about thunder, snow. At least I know he’s relatively consistent and a mile and a quarter is not a problem for him. I’m just, you know, the Vino Rosso thing just kind of adds, it just makes a muddy picture, even, even murky.
Right. I don’t know what to do with it. I mean, I’m curious, what do you think is the horse there’s all of a sudden he, the bee’s knees, is he one of the, is he really the East coast, best older horse. I just, I have a hard time buying it. Yeah, I do too. I think that the, the, the, the jury still out on what Vino Rosso is, but here’s what I think he is these a horse that needs a mile and a quarter in a grindy type of race where he can just caught a stock and keep running when the other ones start, uh, uh, wanting a little bit less distance.
And, and he’s the type of horse that. You know, he’ll probably show up this summer at Saratoga. He’ll probably show up, uh, in the, in the, in the Woodward or the Whitney. Um, I don’t think he’ll win either one of those races that are contested at a mile and an eighth he’ll come back. He’ll run. Maybe he’ll win the jockey club, gold cup and a mile and a quarter, or at least one second or third, give them enough reason to show up and the breeders’ cup out at Santa Anita on a race track where he won a racetrack, won a grade, one, going a mile and a quarter, and he’ll run second or third there with someone more talented winning the race.
I just think he’s a grindy type who is moved up by the mile and a quarter and nothing that I saw on Monday. Would convince me to bet against gift box, if the trips were flipped or to bet against the McKinsey based on how well I thought McKinsey ran at a mile and a quarter and the big cap earlier this year, I think he’s, uh, he’s just, uh, he’s a good grindy type of horse that could pick up some pieces.
I don’t see him winning a grade one at a mile and an eighth or shorter. So I guess that then leads me into sort of the second part you brought up gift box. I mean, if we’re thinking all of these connections have got to be thinking about the breeders cup at 10 furlongs. I mean, if you’re, if you’re the folks involved with gift box, I mean, do you look at that and say, you just got beat by a better horse, and if that’s the case, you know, I’ve, we’ve joked about it before we’ve taped any previews or anything.
And I think John Sadler has done just a whale of a job over the past two or three years, to be honest, it seems like every horse he’s got, that’s older, their quality. Maybe they don’t quite win every time, but it feels like they’re always right there. And I said, ma I know gift box from the East coast. He just, he was always a decent horse, but he, it almost felt like he never lived up to expectations.
And now maybe, maybe just with age, maybe with a scene change, he sort of flipped the switch on, but I look at that and I see Vino Rosso just for the most part. And you’re right. I know gift box had to do a little bit more of the work there, but. I dunno. I just, I have a hard time looking at that saying I, you know, in a race like the classic, could I really build a case to say that I think gift box is going to be in a better situation than a horse, like Vino Rosso.
And having said that I don’t really, I don’t know what to do with Vino, Rosso, I guess it just, it leaves a very sort of. Uh, I don’t want to say bad tastes, but just to, I don’t know what to do with really this, this group of older horses at this point, it feels like to me anyway, it’s ripe for the picking.
And if somebody just shows up with a fresh face again at 10 for a long, so I can’t stress that enough again. I think McKinsey is the most talented one. I’m not convinced that 10 is really the best game for him, but that’s why I keep kind of going back to thunder, snow. I’m sure some people are gonna roll their eyes, but at least I know he’s consistent.
He’s going to show up and run his race and 10 furlongs. Isn’t a problem for him. Absolutely. And I think the three-year-olds will probably eventually have something to say about the division towards the end. We’ll see what happens when Omaha beach comes back. We’ll see what happens if, uh, if improbable can ever get it figured out how to imagine he’s going to go the other direction and distance a war of will.
I know who you’re a big fan of obviously as a right to improve and to keep going. Uh, Catholic boy could eventually make the switch back over to dirt. And, and be someone that we need to, uh, to, to, to keep in consideration when it comes to this older division. He’s probably the, he’s probably the, I, you know, I guess if you’re, if you’re not a fan of thunder, Snoke, he Catholic boys, probably the one that you’re looking at saying this, this is his, for the taking.
If he shows up with any sort of improvement, I thought it was running. The Dixie was fine, given that it was off of a lay off at a distance, it’s probably a hair sharp forum. Um, you’re probably looking at him, right. It’s sort of the, the logical alternative to what you’ve seen so far. I would think so. Yeah.
I mean, I’m a big believer in McKinsey. I still think McKinsey, um, can, can, has, has run well enough at a mile and a quarter and has shown enough talent. Like you mentioned that he’d be one that if he can continue to progress and to, and to kind of improve his speed figures out of the year, as the year goes on, he’s one that I wouldn’t necessarily toss.
And, and I think that he’s actually probably a good transition. And to looking ahead to two races that we’re going to be able to see next week. And while we have you on the show, just to get a little bit of your, uh, your thoughts moving forward, but, you know, I’m really excited about Belmont weekend. Um, you know, we’re going to see a newspaper of record run and the wonder again, which will be fun to see her going a little bit further going a mile and an eighth, if I’m not mistaken, uh, we’ll be able to also see, uh, the Manhattan when Sally’s a great race.
But this met mile is turning out to look like one of the best Matt miles I’ve seen in my lifetime. Reminds me a little bit of, of a win win honor. Code one with totalis was in there. A lot of horses, people were excited to see run. Uh, the list is, is thunder, snow, who you’ve mentioned a few times McKinsey, but totally frenzy fire, a cold front promises fulfilled.
What, what, what are you thinking about this race? Where do you think it ranks? And do you have any early lanes? Yeah. I mean, so far it’s gotta be the races of the year. Um, I I’d have a hard time having anybody try to convince me otherwise. It just, it feels like it’s, it’s the, who’s who the interesting thing is I think there are some horses perhaps doing things that are slightly less than ideal for their situation.
I brought up thunder, snow. I think a mile might be a little bit on the sharp side forum. Um, McKinsey, I think it’s going to hit them right between the eyes. I was saying it before the alley Sheba let’s I, um, I assumed he was going to win that race. And I said from there. I’d love to see a one-term mile.
I’d love to see a try in the met that was the logical alternatives or logic. Shouldn’t say alternative logical next step there for him. Um, to me is sort of the, the wildcard of the horses that we have listed here that we just spoke about simply because he’s yet to do anything wrong. Um, but he’s done all of his damage at much shorter.
Now the seven eights race on Derby day was I thought spectacular. I mean, it’s hard to really poke too many holes in that. And he didn’t look like a horse that was going to feel the effects of an extra eighth of a mile in New York. Um, I do wonder it, you know, it’s a scenario where you got to go an extra eighth of a mile and your face and better horses.
I know that was a great one in that Churchill downs, but I, this field is going to be. I mean, you could, depending on what happens, we’ve got a long way to go. You can make the case already that this is going to be the best race of the year. Um, even knowing that you’ve got the Whitney coming up, you’ve got all those races at Saratoga and Del Mar you’ve got the breeders cup.
There’s a real chance that you’re not going to find a more qual more high-quality race than this one going forward. Um, forensic fire I’ve I’ve personally probably like him at a slightly shorter distance. Now I initially thought maybe a mile was going to be better for him. I’m starting to wonder maybe he’s more of a six or seven for a long time.
Promises fulfilled. I’ve long thought. His speed at a mile is a heck of a lot more advantageous than it is at six furlongs. I just, I just think six, you’re going to have other horses in there that are capable of dropping 44 and continue on with it. How many can go? 44 and a piece or 45 for a half and still go on with it.
I think that’s promises fulfilled game. It’ll be interesting to see how he plays that here. Um, and cold front look. I’ve, I’ve kind of. I haven’t been the biggest fan of cold front, but what he’s done thus far, whether it was that race over in Dubai or what he’s done over here in the state so far, it’s hard to just keep saying, I don’t think he’s he’s you know, of that upper echelon.
I think he’s probably up against it against this field, but look, you’re, you’re probably looking at what fourth, fifth choice. You’re going to get seven, eight to one on a horse that is very capable of winning. That’s the beautiful thing about this race to your favorite is going to be what, four to one.
It’s going to be a great bedding race. Well, it’s going to be remarkable. I’m interested to see what they do from a, uh, from a placing at Stanford. I’d love for this to back in to the Belmont stakes. I don’t think it will. They usually put the Manhattan right in between there, but, uh, it would be great if it, if it was this race that led into the Belmont.
Um, when it comes to the Belmont, I know you are a big war. Well guy, are you going to continue to be a war of Willow guy, at least at this point, uh, of the, of, of the, of the week. I know we’re still a little bit early out, but, uh, where are you at? Uh, leading from the Belmont, you know, the, the thing that’s. I don’t want to say disappointing, but the Belmont for me is, is far and away.
My favorite race of the triple crown. I just think from a strategy standpoint, obviously it’s 12 for a long season. It’s a distance that the vast majority of it run again. But I think it’s much more of a tactical race where the Derby is just a complete crapshoot. There’s chaos, that ensues, uh, the Preakness is the Preakness.
It’s a fun race, but it’s usually very, very favorite heavy, um, This race to me, the Belmont is all about tactics and strategy and where are you going to be positioned? But when I look at this field, I mean, it’s hard to, it’s hard to say other than it’s, it’s hungry. I mean, I, there’s only a couple horses in here that I think are genuine horses that could develop into something going forward.
War of will obviously is at the top of the list, along with Tacitus. I mean, I look at those too. Um, and I like spinoff. I think he’s very interesting because he’s so lightly raced and I think the talent is there. Um, But I look at the rest of these horses and it’s not meant to be a knock against a horse like tax or a horse, like Intrepid heart.
But, um, I just, I mean, from a, from a quality standpoint, at this point right now and going forward to me, it just, it just feels like war of will and Tacitus are very clearly the two best horses in the race. And I don’t think either of them are going to have a problem at 12 furlongs that to me, all of a sudden makes it a little bit, um, I don’t, I don’t want to say sort of, I’m just going to default into the two favorites, but I.
Spin off would probably be the only other one that I would, I would try to build a case for, because he is so lightly raised, but the rest of the horses, I just look at it and I go, yeah, they’re fine. They could, they could round out exotic. So I just, I don’t, I don’t, I don’t see anyone that really blows me away.
I was hopeful. We would get sort of an influx of fresh faces in here because the race feels like it could be of all years. This could have been a race where, you know, crazier things could happen, but who knows, maybe it still will, but I just, I have a hard time getting around the two favorites. Yeah, disappointed game winners.
Not going to go here, but uh, you know, whatever it is, what it is, we’ll, we’ll take what we get. I agree. I mean, we’ll see what happens next week with the draw. See if there’s any late entries, see if there’s any late defections, but you know, Tacitus and war we’ll have the style to win this race. They have the, uh, the, the, the talent to win this race.
They have the races this year that suggests. That they’re good enough to win this race. I, I don’t see how one of those two won’t get the job done. Um, obviously the draw could be a little bit of a problem, but that race is not really an issue when it comes to it’s a pretty long run to the first turn.
It’s a big sweeping turn. So even if you are wide, it’s not really gonna gonna hurt you. It’s more or less, if you can be forward in this race or not. So look, it’s going to be fun. Um, I, I do, I do think that there’s a misconception about what kind of horse wins this race. Um, you know, Nick Tamriel mentioned it on our, on our other show that the, the Niara vets late pick five show we recorded earlier today that, you know, it’s the half of the race is a Gallup and then the other half is an actual run.
So it’s not like you’re all out, running for a mile and a half. It’s all about galloping shutting off, reserving your energy, and then finishing faster than the other ones. And being forward is a huge advantage in this race. And, um, one of the biggest tosses of my entire life and I was trembling the entire time was tossing icebox back in 2010, where I had one of my biggest scores that kind of led me into being able to play more.
I, I tossed the ice box because I had learned pretty early that closers flashy closers from the Derby and Preakness do not run well in the Belmont unless they are written differently. And I did not think icebox will be written that way. Um, so we’ll see, you said it on, on one of my pods a couple of weeks ago, I brought up the charts for the, uh, the Belmonts going all the way back to 2010.
And I said, just that, I mean, you go through and look. It’s a race that is for the most part, one by horses that are relatively close to the pace, uh, the horses that make those big moves from the back of the pack. Sure. There’s the anomaly of a creator, um, or even a horse like orb, who, who put in his bid.
But if you are that deep, closer, my God, that’s just such a hard run to maintain and keep that thing moving along. I just look at it and say, you know, I, this race to me this year feels like. And I just pulled up the chart for it. I, it feels to me like the 2017 Belmont, where you have taproot and you have Irish war cry and it feels like it’s those two.
Now, granted, this was an 11 horse field and it doesn’t look like we’re going to have that many next Saturday, but it felt like it was those two. They both had the running style that fit. And guess what Tapper saw the distance out a little bit better than Irish war cry? I did. And they were the two of them were what?
Eight links clear third. I mean, I, I, right now, again, crazier things have happened. It happened, it’s a horse race, anything can go. But, um, I, I just, it, it, to me, it feels very much like those two, they’ve got the running style. I need tasks to, just to be a little bit closer than he has been to be fair. Um, I, you know, Some of that has been issues, whether it’s early on getting bounced around in the woods and the derbies, the Derby, I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt there.
But, um, that Tampa Bay Derby run, you gotta be a little bit closer because war will. If you’re going to give him that kind of head start, I just have a hard time seeing him get run down. If TASA just gets into the run a little bit earlier. Uh, I, you know, I, again, I’ll go back to 2017. It feels very much like taproot and Irish war cry to me.
Yeah, I completely agree. All right. Let’s hop on some of these races this weekend. It’s the, the calm before the storm, some exciting stuff. Santa Anita Churchill. Also at Belmont, we will start out at Santa Anita. Um, race seven is a, is a, is a grade three. Three-year-old on the grass, the honeymoon steaks over a mile and an eighth Matty ice suited you.
Uh, who would you like here so far? I haven’t been impressed with really any of the three-year-old fillies on grass and Southern California. Feel like they’re just. This is a division where a fresh face can kind of show up. And that’s an angle that I’ve used in a number of other races in the past, where if I’m just not sold on the horses that have run against one another, I kind of want a fresh face and no different than this instance here.
I like the, to overemphasize from Michael McCarthy. Um, I know she’s only got a maiden wind thus far that came two starts back, but the most recent run I thought was promising enough. She was down on the inside. Might not have been the most comfortable position. Colonial creed, the horse that beat her was the pace setter.
I didn’t think the pace was all that fast for her to run at that day. Um, I love that that race was at a mile and an eighth, and she’ll go a mile and an eighth here this time around for two turf races, very clearly the best races of her career. In my opinion, she’s paired up those buyer tops of 78. That’s another little pet angle of mine where I think usually paired up buyers sort of precede a forward move.
I think if she takes us forward step, she’s got a big chance in this spot. Uh, the pace should be there for her to run it. And again, I’m just not sold on. You know, it’s not that maximum rate can’t win or hostess or some of these other runners. I just I’m, I don’t, I’m not in love with any of the horses that have run against one another.
So I’ll go with overemphasize. Yeah. You know, I, I actually agree. I think over emphasize makes the most sense. I’m obviously a Michael McCarthy fan, so that might have something to do with that as well. But look, I, I, I know this horse is probably going to stop at the top of the stretch. Like they’re trying to get a snow cone from Clockers corner, but yeah.
Holly hundy makes, makes, makes me a little bit excited. There’s some obvious there’s some turf pedigree there, pedigree there. Um, the average winning distance of the dams are offspring, a seven and a half furlongs is pretty high. If they let this one loose thinking what we both think that they’re, that she’ll come back to them.
She could get brave out there on the front end. And I think sometimes the, the jump from like a flat five to something of noxious, like nine and a half or nine. It’s actually easier on these horses than the jump to like a mile. Right. Cause they’re just still gonna run a little bit at a mile and they’re going to have, you know, these kind of quick agile horses trying to run them down.
If she can get loose, she’s going to have lumbering types trying to catch her. Um, I think Holly Hunter is interesting at least underneath and as a price, but I agree with you on your top pick with overemphasize. Um, going on a race, I believe it’s race ACE and eight, the grade to Santa Maria. We get a horse in here.
I burned a law in paradise woods. Where did you end up here? Yeah, normal circumstances. This is a race where I’m licking my chops, trying to beat paradise woods because that Santa margarita field I thought was hungry. I didn’t think she’d beat much in there. And look, maybe it was just a slow progression for her to get back to what she wants was I’ve I’ve loved her for a long time.
I just. I still don’t think she’s what she wants was. And that’s saying this on the heels of a 10 and a half length win with a 100 buyer. The problem I look at this field, there’s no other speed. I think Martine Garcia, you should ride the hair off just a smidge from the inside and try to make the front.
But even having said that, I don’t know that that’s going to work. You just did that in Santa margarita and the most recent start, uh, you know, captain obvious here, she’s gonna be one to five. I had a hard time getting around paradise woods. It was one of those races. It’s happened to me in my life, quite a bit where I’m like, Oh, I can’t wait to beat this Philly.
Okay. Here we go. I start looking. I’m like, I can’t beat this exactly. I mean, that’s, you know, I, I, for a minute I looked at tapped and I thought maybe, I guess if you want a, again, a total unknown in a situation like this, but I just, I don’t really want to have a heck of a lot of money and against paradise woods.
Yeah. This is definitely a tough situation. I, I look, I, I would. If you’re playing this sequence, I would say, you know, I personally would single here and put a trip note in no matter what happens, beat her next time. Hopefully she, you know, she won by 10. Hopefully she runs off the screen this time and wins again.
And then the next time you can have that opportunity to try to be a horse that, that I don’t quite trust. I think it’s interesting at least to point out that she was with Richard Mandela, which is the John ser, uh, sheriffs, not really, uh, a change in, in what the stereotype for those trainers is. Right.
Patient guys. You know, Hey, oats, water guys. You know what I mean? Like I, it feels like w where was the difference? What was the wake up for her? Um, maybe it was just a change of scenery. So I think she’ll be extremely tough in that spot. Uh, on the Churchill downs where I’ll be this weekend. I finally, I think it’s clear to announce the, the Fox sports is coverage is going to start including Churchill downs stuff.
So, uh, I’ll be there Friday at Churchill, uh, covering the race on Friday and then also on Sunday. So this race that we’re gonna talk about is on Saturday, but you can still tune into America’s day at the races on Fox sports and check out, uh, check out these steaks. We’ll talk about now. The mighty bow is an overnight going five for a long time.
On the turf. Uh, you’ll see some, some names that you might recognize own. Uh, the, the only horse, uh, well, not the only horse, but there’s a couple of horses, but, uh, that beat American Pharaoh, but he was one of them. And, uh, who did you, who did you like in this turf sprint? Double-take when I saw his name pop up in here, I was like, Jesus, I didn’t even know he was still running.
And then I looked and saw that he already ran earlier this month. Um, look at anybody that’s listened to any of the steaks previews that I’ve ever done, or just in general, he listened to the podcast, whatever knows that turf sprints are the bane of my existence. Uh, I suck at them. They’re not a specialty of mine.
Having said that there was a horse in here that I’m interested in, the problem is, and we need to put the caveat out there. He is cross entered to run. We’re recording this on Thursday. He’s cross entered to run on Thursday. That’s the number seven Texas wedge. Uh, one of two in here for Peter Miller is the first time gelding his run.
He went on favorite in the Oceanside actually last summer at Del Mar it’s a restricted stakes race horses that have never won a stake. Um, it’s the opening day sort of, uh, call it the feature, the standard situation, the opening day main event, but his turf sprint as a two year old going all the way back to November at Del Margo and five eights.
I thought it was phenomenal. I thought he was awesome that day. He comes back off of a long layoff, six and a half down the Hill put in a nice late bid. They stretched him out. It didn’t work. Uh, obviously he’s had his physical issues because he’d been gone for a long time again and again, he can’t say enough.
He’s scheduled to East cross centered on Thursday. If he doesn’t go on Thursday. I like him in this spot on Saturday. If he does go on Thursday. And he doesn’t run in Saturday’s race. Uh, I would probably audible over to the five extravagant kid for Brendan Walsh, just because, but it was close to a hot pace and that Jack Cartier most recently against, uh, a good horse and pink Lloyd on synth.
And he’s done some good things on turf in the past, but, uh, I’m hopeful that Texas wedge goes on Saturday. Yeah, for the sake of time, I’ll be quick here. I kind of love Bobby’s wicked one drawn outside. Uh, it is the first time that won’t be trying turf, not too concerned. Go Sapper mayor. Um, spikes towns are pretty much run on everything.
Not that I know a whole lot about pedigree, but I am about to host a pedigree podcast in the next 15 minutes. So I might as well fake it till I make it. I love the Commonwealth. I thought it was a really good race where Bobby’s a wicked one won that race. Liam is he liberal was third. Unfortunately he’ll no longer race.
A totally promises fulfilled ran well at Churchill downs in the grade one. I just think that was a productive race. That was extremely fast. If this one can handle the turf even a little bit. I think he’ll be extremely dangerous as a pace type sitting right outside of all of these, we’ll be able to finish.
I would try to single on the spot just because I think there’s going to be some value based on the fact that he’s never run on the turf before, but if he acts on the turf, like he acts on the dirt, I think the races is not even really needed to be a run. I think he’s the best in here. And I think he’ll get the job done.
We’ll see what happens. Come Saturday. Uh, we’ll blast through these, these next well we’ll blast through this one. We can spend a little bit more time on the pine Ridge. Uh, but the 10th race is the air studies. It’s $125,000 state going six on the dirt, Matty ice. Maybe, maybe you’ve got a more interesting opinion than I do.
I just think share the upside is going to be tough to get around in here. He, they tried them against what more two starts back. He was no match for that horse, but what more in here will be barred from the wagering, uh, highest last out buyer in the field with a 96 highest last out raw time form rating one 18.
He’s versatile. He can sit off the pace. He can go to the front if given to him, uh, I had a hard time getting around him. Yeah. I mean, I, I don’t see it. It’s one of those races where. Yes, share the upside could get beat. The problem is, is that if I’m going to be forced to pick someone, to beat him with, I kind of need them all.
And so you have a choice, you either single you pass on the race or you, you, you use the horse that you think is. Is is the most likely winner is tactical he’s it’s a home track for him with, with Steve asked mucin, uh, the figures are there. It draws fine. It gets Ricardo. I don’t have anything creative outside of that, in this spot.
So maybe a couple of singles in the middle of it and see if I can hook something up outside of these two races. Onto the Pennine Ridge, a very exciting race that leads into the Belmont Derby that we’ll see in a few weeks time at, uh, at Belmont should be a lot of fun. Hopefully newspaper of record will run well in the wonder again, and ended up running in the Philly version of the yolks.
Who did you like in this Pennine Ridge? Uh, as a prep for the Belmont Oaks, this is a good group of three-year-olds on grass. Uh, you could go so many different ways in here. The big thing to keep in mind is just the, the, the potential pay situation, because I don’t know that there’s a ton in here. Maybe Clint maroon could shake loose.
And if that’s the case, maybe he can get brave out there coming off the heels of that wind in the Woodhaven. I just, I loved everything about Dave Marsh. I liaise run down at Keeneland. He was four or five wide throughout. I didn’t think the pace was overly fast. That day thought maybe he got a little bit goofy when he did hit the front or when he got right up there alongside the runner-up award winner.
But he eventually drew clear at the end award winner came back and was the next out winner with an 82. Um, he’s one of those horses that from a numbers standpoint, he hasn’t quite run as fast as some of the other runners in here. But I think this is a serious race horse. I think you’re looking at one that could end up being one of the horses to beat in the Belmont Derby and going forward into some of those other bigger, bigger races down the road.
I just think the Masha liaise. Very good. Look, I could give you a lot of horses in here. I gave a little bit of a, uh, of a fun thing I like to do on the other show. I’ll I’ll share it here as well. Um, with when it comes to Chad and Todd in, in New York, these good turf horses and more Chad than Todd, but you know, social paranoia and Clint, maroon are good examples.
If you hop on express that, uh, you know, TV or what are XB TV and wash these workouts, I don’t really know what I’m looking at when it comes to a work horse working by himself. You know, you look at the jockeys hand, see how easy is traveling. Does he look comfortable as he all these things, but when they’re working together, I have enough of a horse flesh opinion that I think I can come up with something and horses like value proposition, um, social paranoia, Clint, maroon to name a few will show up in these works, working with other horses on the surface.
They’re going to be running in. And I think you can kind of gain some, some ideas there. So, so take a look at those. You look at value proposition, you’ll see some horses in his running line. Um, he worked at the horse. You liked, uh, I, I need Pete when it comes to these pronunciations, the Marshall yay. Uh, worked with that horse and, and, and I thought worked well with him, work with Allmand, our who, who won a race at Monmouth stake race at Monmouth.
So you can kind of gather some ideas about who their workmate is. That to kind of give you a little bit of a clue, the horse at all mentioned, Look, I, I th the Todd’s the Chad’s, they all make sense, magnificent McCool for Steve assays and makes sense. They tried the dirt with him for a little while they got him back to the turf.
I wouldn’t be surprised if he kind of moved up and could get the job done, but Henley’s joy is one that I wanted to point out. Uh, I don’t think like soft ground. I do know that the turf was listed as, from last time at Churchill. I don’t think that’s entirely true. And then if you look back to the race at Keeneland, um, on April 5th, there was a trip there.
This was kind of got a really. Bad trip. And I’m going to kind of draw a line ish through those last two and expect that this horse is going to run a little bit better in here. It should be a great price. Cause the cha the CHADS and the Todd should take a lot of money. So Henley’s joy will be my top pick in here from a value standpoint, but please don’t misunderstand and multi-racial vets.
I’m going to be using the CHADS and the Todd’s does. I think they’re all extremely live and I’ll try to get skinny and some other legs of this sequence. Well, Maddie ice. That was the maiden voyage. It’s been a pleasure, man. Hopefully next time we do it. We can have PTF around too, but this was good. You did well.
I thought you handled things very, very smoothly. And, uh, I think the, the podcast is in good hands when PTF, uh, is not around for you guys. Uh, he, he asked me today how it was going and I just texted him back. Wally PIPP. Yes. Perfect. That’s perfect. That’s all you need to say. And he’s probably going to fly back right now, too.
He’s on a plane as we speak. No, he’s not. He’s drinking. He’s drinking wine and you all know it. Vino, Rosso. There it is. All right. Um, let’s see. What does Pete usually say? He, thanks everyone for listening. Thanks. Our guests. TV’s Matt Bernier. And, uh, and then he usually says, May you want all your photos?
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