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By: PTF
How He Got Here
Sierra Leone had people thinking Kentucky Derby as early as his first start back at Aqueduct on November 4 of last year. He showed class and seasoning that you don’t often see from a first-time starter, overcoming a bobble at the break and a tricky mid-race position to power home with a stylish win.
He backed that up with a much-the-best performance in the Remsen. It’s not easy to go nine furlongs in your second start but Sierra Leone was undeterred. He made a wild middle-move wide around the turn on a day when ground loss mattered. The facile view was that Dornoch “outgamed” him but that was an optical illusion – Dornoch, a nice colt himself, was very much with the inside-favoring grain of the track, and I believe Sierra’s early exertions and lack of experience simply told on him late.
He was off until the Risen Star when he came back on a sloppy track that was exceedingly difficult to make speed figures for given the weather conditions and the length of the card (14 races!). Sierra Leone made another bold, visually impressive run. It came back as a 95 Beyer and just a 106 on the raw TFUS speed fig (equivalent of an 86 Beyer). BUT this effort was very much achieved against the speed-favoring flow there. The TFUS performance pace-adjusted rating marked it up 5 points and all in all, given the class he showed and the fact that this was his seasonal debut, I feel confident in saying it was a perfect return to the races.
His most recent effort came in the Bluegrass. I think the talk of a track bias opening Saturday at Keeneland is way overblown – Friday seemed way more speed favoring that Saturday to me, and the bias, such as it was, seemed more prevalent in one-turn races anyway. Besides, unlike the previous race, the Bluegrass was run to suit closers (note the red coloring in the TFUS pace figures. Sierra earned a solid 98 on the Beyer scale but I wouldn’t mark it up any more than that personally – especially with his pre-race antics (we’ll get there).
Connections and Pedigree
Chad Brown certainly needs no introduction. At a recent dinner, a horseplayer friend suggested to me that somehow Chad was a negative because he’d yet to win a Derby – I nearly walked out leaving him with the bill I thought that was so absurd. Chad’s runners Good Magic and Zandon both ran great in the Derby and it’s only a matter of time/luck before he wins one if not more of these. Zandon, in particular, had he had any stamina for 10 furlongs at all, would have won the Derby, this sparing the world the indignity of Rich Strike (I’ll never get over it).
Pedigree-wise, Sierra Leone holds the cards. Our resident pedigree geek Alex Henry (she knows I use that term lovingly) has written and spoken extensively about how Sierra Leone is one of the best suited horses in this race to the 10 furlong test. JK put forth a dodgy theory on the show that Remsen horses are somehow ill-suited to the Derby but I’m not buying it one bit – If you can run that well in your second start going nine furlongs, you’ll be able to get home in the Derby. I’m not saying he has to win, but if he loses it won’t be the distance or his Remsen success that has anything to do with it.
Overall Chance
He has a very big chance, but it’s not like there aren’t issues here. The Brits have gone overboard making him the favorite imo – that should be Fierceness, whose best race is simply faster than anything we’ve seen from Sierra or anyone else in this generation.
I hate the way he balked at the gate prior to the Bluegrass. His apologists have framed it in a way where simple schooling in front of the Derby week crowd should be able to cure him of the “curiousity” he demonstrated there. Maybe, maybe not. If the proximity to the big crowd Bluegrass day was part of the issue, good look getting him to chill in front of the decadence and depravity (H/T Hunter Thompson) that characterize your typical Derby Day crowd. I have to build a couple of points in the odds I’m willing to accept on him.
Then there’s the issue of the trip he’s going to get. For a deeper closer, he’s done an excellent job of making pretty good trips, even when against the flow. But it’s not going to be easy passing 15 runners in a race where the pace doesn’t look like a burn up.
Bottom line: he’s an A-level contender for horizontals, a must-use but not must-key for verticals, and a horse I’d personally want 6-1 to bet to win – you are unlikely to see that (UK best price currently 3-1).
