PTF here. So happy to have Steven Bonnick back with us for 2024 Royal Ascot. One of the sharpest form analysts I know, he will be taking us through his notes on key contenders for all 35 races this week. For even more information, including Steven’s verdicts and Best Bets from Rob Dove (one of the top 10 propunters in the UK today), please sign up for our In the Money Plus service at inthemoneypodcast.com/plus . Take it away, Steven…
Queen Anne Stakes – 8 Furlongs – Group 1
Much will rest on the ground here with soft ground likely to tip the balance hugely in the favour of Big Rock. Unfortunately, as this is the first race of the meeting, we won’t get to see times, so will have to rely on the reports here: https://www.ascot.com/thegoing
BIG ROCK was weak in the market for the Lockinge and probably found the ground a little quick. He is a monster on soft and his win over the Queen Anne course of distance last year was achieved in devastating fashion and a fast time; I’d consider him near unbeatable if the going is soft or worse.
CHARYN has progressed again this season and finished in front of Big Rock in the Lockinge last time. I wasn’t too keen on him there and he didn’t have too many excuses for me; I feel like he is a little shy of the very best at this level and will need others to underperform. This is a weak renewal, however, but I think he’s the right price now.
He was unable to peg back AUDIENCE who sprung a 22/1 shock in the same contest last time out. This is an admirable gelding and he seemed to win on merit last time, travelling well and striding clear off a strong gallop. He nearly lowered the course record that day thanks to fast ground, I’m just not sure if much else in the race ran to their form.
FACTEUR CHEVAL is a most interesting runner. He was a little shy of the very best milers last year but his win in Dubai in March looks incredibly strong form and he may well have improved as a 5-year-old. As well as beating some crack Japanese milers, he also had impressive Manhattan winner Measured Time behind and there didn’t appear to be any fluke about it. He seemed to enjoy running on better ground there and his attitude was exceptional.
One that interests me at a big price is DOLAYLI, who has had an odd career to this point. A winner over 12 furlongs as a 3-year-old, he missed all of 2022 but returned with three impressive wins on synthetics earlier in the year, thrashing the Grade 1 winner Junko in the last of those wins. He’s been beaten at Group level twice since but has run with credit both times on soft ground. This gelding is by Soyouni, an influence for good ground, and may improve again if encountering a decent surface to outrun big odds.
Coventry Stakes – 6 Furlongs – Group 2
A wide-open affair with no standout performer at this stage. You are guessing on the draw at this point and I wouldn’t rule anything out on that basis.
CAMILLE PISSARRO is a good place to start given that he is trained by Aiden O’Brien, whose record in this race is phenomenal. He was beaten at odds-on in a Group 3 last time but probably gave the leader a bit too much rope and didn’t get any cover from the headwind – nor did the winner, but he ran the race a bit more evenly. This well-bred colt sets a fair standard but is priced accordingly.
A place behind him that day was MIDNIGHT STRIKE. He was a bit outpaced when they quickened but finished best of all into third and could go on again. He was a bit green that day and also didn’t get any cover from the wind, while that run suggested a strong pace at this stiffer track could see him in an even better light. Oisin Murphy takes the ride, which is another plus.
Another exciting contender is COWARDOFTHECOUNTY, who has won his only start so far. He beat the well backed and well-bred Whistlejacket in good style there, and I was impressed that he was faster through the penultimate furlong than that speedster. Both colts were making their debut there so it might be slightly misleading form, but he must have strong claims if that run was legit.
THE ACTOR is a quirky sort but that’s probably just immaturity and I like the way he went about his business last time out, improving on his debut and coming home strongly in a good time at Newmarket. The extra furlong here should suit, and he is in good hands to keep progressing.
He had AL QUDRA in behind last time and that rival has come out and franked the form on synthetics next time, running fast despite a brutal wide trip. He is getting better with every run and will relish a testing six furlongs based on his finishing effort last time out.
King Charles III Stakes – 5 Furlongs – Group 1
BIG EVS looks a good place to start here. A very fast horse, he showed his speed and class at the Breeders’ Cup last year and looked to have trained on well when beating up some inferior rivals on his return at York last time out. He was strong in the market there despite carrying a penalty and was a winner over this course and distance at the Royal meeting last year. He doesn’t have many negatives but this looks like an open renewal and I think he still needs to improve a little to win a hot all-age race such as this, so I’m happy to let him win at the price.
Several of these met in the Temple Stakes at Haydock at the end of May and projecting improvement from that contest could be key to figuring out what might win here. KERDOS finished 1st in that particular event but he’d had a run under his belt and got a nice trip off the speed with plenty of cover – I think he’s up against it.
Australian import ASFOORA might well be the one to take out of the race. She travelled better than anything but just looked to get a little tired off a two month break, while the ground would likely have been softer than ideal. She comes into this top rated by Timeform and Australian runners are always feared in sprints of this nature.
ROGUE LIGHTNING, sold for £1m last October, was also having his first run of the season and encountering ground softer than ideal. He had some cover but was probably a bit wider than ideal given the action developed more centrally. He should improve a lot for that run and looked unlucky not to go close in a Group 1 at Longchamp last year. He will need to improve on his form to date but has scope to do so.
It is a tale of two headwinds with REGIONAL and BELIEVING, who both ran in races where wind was a factor last time out. Believing got a perfect trip out of the breeze to win the Achilles Stakes and, while impressive, was seen to maximum effect. She was behind Regional in the Group 1 Sprint Cup Stakes last year and that rival looks to have improved again based on his return run at the Curragh. Racing into the teeth of the gale, he was only touched off late on by MITHBAAHY – who had a perfect trip – despite carrying a penalty on his seasonal debut. That was a massive effort, and this rapid improver looks a danger to all.
Amongst the outsiders are two horses that won at this meeting last year and ran at Gulfstream Park last time, albeit with very different results. CRIMSON ADVOCATE returns to action following a sixth in the Juvenile Turf Sprint with a victory over Reef Runner, which wasn’t a bad effort considering that she was at level weights with that colt who had previously beaten Norfolk Stakes winner VALIANT FORCE. Valiant Force, who finished ahead of Crimson in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, received a brutal ride from Irad two back when failing to catch the aforementioned Reef Runner and nothing really went right on dirt last time out. Valiant Force has moved back to his old trainer, while Crimson Advocate has joined the Gosden team, and it’s super hard to definitively argue which one of these will finish in front of the other. I still feel, however, that we haven’t quite got to the bottom of Valiant Force, particularly over 5f on fast ground.
St James’s Palace Stakes – 8 Furlongs – Group 1
The second mile race of the day, although this race for the 3-year-olds is run on the round track.
NOTABLE SPEECH looks likely to be a worthy and short-priced favourite here and you can’t really argue with that. He’s unbeaten in four starts and impressed when winning the 2000 Guineas on his first turf start last time out. He had a nice pace to go at there with plenty of cover, but he moved through the race like a class animal and strode clear. He was weak in the market there and there may be more to come, although this looks likely to be a quite different test with no obvious pace in the race (he did show fantastic acceleration beating up inferiors earlier in the year, though).
ROSALLION finished one place behind NOTABLE SPEECH in the Guineas and has since landed the Irish equivalent. He looks the type who might be suited by more of a speed test and running around a bend, and was having his first run of the season at Newmarket, whereas Notable Speech was race fit.
With no pace on paper, it’s likely that HENRY LONGFELLOW will have an edge. He was a beaten favourite behind METROPOLITAN in the French Guineas last time out but connections blamed the hold up ride for that and I’d be surprised if he isn’t allowed to stride on early by Ryan Moore. He should improve for the run and should be more competitive with Metropolitan here, particularly as he got stopped several times at key stages. That rival is not out of this, however, as he showed a good attitude and turn of foot to win at Longchamp and might get a nice trip behind the speed here – I’m not sure he’d want the ground too quick.
DARLINGHURST comes here off the back of four wins in a row, landing a Group 3 last time out. He had the run of the race there off a steady pace, holding a few lengths advantage in the run over runner up First Look, but that rival has finished 2nd in the French Derby since and Darlinghurst showed a nice turn of pace, winning comfortably. He retains untapped potential, but does need to improve.
Of the outsiders, ALYANAABI ran well behind Notable Speech in the Guineas having been too keen and too close to the fast pace. He has a ton of ability if it can be harnessed correctly, although a muddling affair here might not be ideal.
ALMAQAM has made rapid strides this season and impressed with how he handled some decent rivals last time out. He should move forward again but this might be a bit too much of an ask at this stage of his career.
UNQUESTIONABLE looked good when winning the Juvenile Turf last season and will surely have needed his return to action. He doesn’t have a lot to find with Rosallion on a couple of lines of form and could go well at a big price.
Ascot Stakes – 20 Furlongs – Handicap
Yes, you read that right. 20 furlongs. On the flat. This remains one of the longest flat races in the British racing calendar and is often won by a steeplechase trainer.
Willie Mullins has won three of the last ten renewals of this race and has the favourite again here in the shape of MY LYKA, who looks hard to weigh up. He’s had one run for the stable so far having shown a good level of form over much shorter in France and is relatively lightly-raced for a five-year-old. He most recently ran over hurdles, running to a decent level on his first attempt over obstacles without suggesting a mark of 98 looks particularly attractive. Nonetheless, Ryan Moore is booked and you must fear anything the stable runs in this race.
PIED PIPER and THE SHUNTER both look solid. They’d be a long way better than My Lyka over hurdles and finished 1-2 in the Cesarewitch last autumn. That race came out fast on the clock and they should relish the extra distance – the latter looks to have been aimed at this race for shrewd connections.
Don’t be fooled by the apparent yard change for ZANNDABAD. Although apparently moved to the yard of Cathy O’Leary, you can be fairly confident that this horse is still being trained by her brother, Tony Martin, who is currently banned for doping violations. This horse caught the eye at Chester last time out when putting in impressive late splits in a steadily run race, although the form doesn’t look great.
All of the runners mentioned to this point have been Irish trained but Britain looks to have a fair chance with DIVINE COMEDY. This improving mare produced a huge career best last time out when dominating a field of good stayers and I really think she is a Stakes horse. A mark of 97 looks workable still and she looks as though she may improve further as her stamina is drawn out – she looks a big player at the odds.
There are a couple of others that look interesting here at big prices. THE VERY MAN is 10-years-old now but was impressive at this track last season and could have more to come for an extreme test. He caught the eye staying on well off slow fractions in a Listed race last time and may just need decent ground to show his best.
That comment may also apply to NUSRET. This strong-travelling type was super impressive when scything through the field at the Curragh to win a decent race last year and is totally unexposed over extreme distance. He ran well enough over 14f at Leopardstown in a very valuable race next time out that didn’t play out ideally. He has just been ticking over on bad ground since and I’m sure this talented hurdler has a lot more to come over extreme trips on decent ground, particularly at a right-handed track.
Wolferton Stakes – 10 Furlongs – Listed Race
This is a typically competitive race but there doesn’t appear to be a great deal of quality in the field.
BOTANICAL looks likely to be favourite. This well-bred gelding impressed a few times on the clock last season without really seeming like the finished article, but he looks to have grown up nicely over the winter judged by his comeback win in a handicap off a mark of 97. The 10lb rise for that has him on 107, which still means he’ll need to improve again, but he is in good hands to do so. I don’t think he’d want really fast ground but he clearly has a sound chance with William Buick booked.
I am a bit of a sucker for ISRAR. This strong-travelling sort is far from straightforward but has abundant ability. He couldn’t go with the exciting Passenger last time out but there’s no shame in that and nothing like that horse’s quality in this field. He might be better suited with some more restraint and has the best form in the race.
TORITO has improved with racing and produced a career best on his seasonal debut at Newmarket last time out. He looks the type James Doyle could get a nice tune out of and should be better again here.
Copper Horse Handicap – 14 Furlongs – Handicap
A big field for this but there looks to be little strength in depth.
BELLOCCIO made a winning start of Willie Mullins over hurdles on his most recent start and looks well handicapped on his best flat form. He gets William Buick and looks to have a very solid chance.
FOX JOURNEY looked much improved when routing a weaker field on his seasonal debut. He’s gone up 9lb for winning a weak race there and the time was nothing special, but he is in good hands to progress further.
A PIECE OF HEAVEN is lightly-raced for his age but has a pedigree to improve as he matures and he seems to be doing that this season. The front-runner has won his last two and impressed when winning in a decent time last time out. He’s up 7lb for that and may have more to come still, but he can expect some pace pressure here.
MY MATE MOZZIE has developed into a good chaser and he might be on a fair mark here. He’s had limited tries on the flat but caught the eye in the Irish Cesarewitch travelling well. He moved to the lead going well inside the final two furlongs there but didn’t quite get home over 2 miles on ground that would have been a bit soft for him. 14f on good ground might prove his optimum.
PARTY CENTRAL also catches the eye. She was a good horse in bumper races – schooling races with no jumps for future steeplechase horses – and won her first two starts on the flat. She lost her unbeaten record under that code last time but ran a lot better than the result in a Stakes race last time, sweeping through wide off a slow pace to challenge for the lead but fading late on over 2 miles. Dropping back to handicaps and down two furlongs should see her in a better light.
