It’s a whole new ballgame, folks.
For the next few weeks, in addition to our flagship show — which we will still produce twice a week — we’ll also be embarking on a new voyage — The Keeneland Select Players’ Podcast. In these new shows, we’ll do a few things. For one, we’ll dive deeper into Keeneland related topics like we do in the first part of today’s show with our meet preview. Secondly, we will analyze important races and sequences throughout the meet, mostly on Fridays and Sunday but really wherever we feel like it (Saturdays at Keeneland will receive expanded coverage on the regular late-week shows).
Obviously, Keeneland Select are our sponsor for these new shows. They have a couple of player friendly deals that we want our listeners to be aware of. If you use the promo code ITM19 when signing up for an account at keenelandselect.com you have the opportunity to bet $300 in the first 30 days and receive $100 back into your account. If you bet $500, you get $50, and you can repeat that second option twice. If you’re playing Keeneland, it’s something you should definitely look into.
Today’s show description:
Peter Thomas Fornatale and Jonathon Kinchen are your hosts for this brand new podcast that will offer a deeper look into all things Keeneland. On today’s show, Christina Blacker drops by to talk about her life in racing, her new role on the Keeneland broadcast team, and #iamhorseracing.
Then professional horseplayer and lifelong Lexingtonian Sean Boarman is here for his first appearance of many this Spring. Who better to help guide listeners through the Spring meet than a guy who bets horses every day to make his living? He and JK offer their favorite angles for the Spring meet and get into the specifics of some of the Thursday and Friday races as well.
Prefer to read it? See below.
***Please note this was done with AI and likely contains errors and inaccuracies. ***
Hey everybody. Peter Thomas foreign, a towel here, and we’ve got a great show for you today, but before we get into it, just want to give you a word from the sponsor of this new podcast and select some great promos. You want to be aware of heading into this meat. There’s a signup bonus. If you bet $300 in the first 30 days, you will receive $100 back into your account and new for spring.
If you sign up for Kima and select now, and bet, 500 on Caitlin racing during the spring meet you’ll receive $50 back into your account. Bet another 500 and get another 50 back. Maximum of 1000 wagered on the Keelan live meets still. That’s a nice kickback and a really good deal. We want you to use the promo code ITM 19 to sign up today.
Again, make sure you use the promo code ITM 19. When you sign up for Caitlin select. For more information, go to Keeneland, select.com. Right?
Hello, and welcome to the very first ever edition of the keen Lynn select players podcast. I’m your host, Peter Thomas foreign hotel, not coming to you from Lexington, just yet coming to you from Brooklyn, New York, but the flight is booked and it is the Eve of the keen Lynn meeting. And I am extremely excited about it.
We’ve got several special guests through the course of this show to give you everything you need to know to get prepared for this keen Lynn meat. First off, I’m going to bring in the co-host of this show. You know him from the other show that I host, we call him the people’s champion. He’s Jonathan kitchen.
What’s up JK. PTF. I’m not, I’m not eating very much all week. I’m saving all of my appetite for Furstenberg. Burgoo in the green room this week. I’m going to, I’m going to order at least three to four and try not to spill it on myself. Burgoo hot Browns and whiskey are on the menu. We should say right away.
If you’re going to be in Lexington this weekend, we are part of the official Keeneland. Kickoff party. It’s going to be happening at Bell’s in downtown Lexington after the races on Friday night. If you’re not at the races, just show up at bells around seven, going to be a lot of fun. We’ll talk more about that later in the show.
But right now I want to bring in our first, very special guest on this program. You’ve seen her and you’re going to be seeing a lot more of her if you’re following Keeneland, because she’s going to be part of the regular coverage. I am speaking about Christina blacker. How are you this morning, Christina?
Hey guys, I’m good. It’s good to be with you. And I am actually on a plane very shortly to Caitlin, so I cannot wait to get there and, uh, just to be in the bluegrass and to be in Lexington. It’s one of my favorite towns. Really looking forward to this meet and sort of, as you say, my expanded role there.
Yeah. Yeah. Let’s talk about that first, Christina. W what will you be doing exactly? So it’s a host of different things. As far as the actual Caitlin meat goes, um, myself got Hazelton and Gabby got, that will be a little bit more prominent as far as the simulcasts show and the today at Keeneland show, I Gabby and Scott will do that daily as the two of them will actually be there.
Every day of the meet, uh, I’m going to come for week one and then I’ll be there again for week three to kind of pepper in and be a part of that. And then out here in California on the West coast, Scott and I have taken on kind of more of a liaison type role, just in terms of helping, Keyline helping the sales team.
Uh, you know, keeping those relationships going and the information that everybody needs out here with regard to the chemo and sales and just kind of boots on the ground, so to speak and out here on the West coast to help out and to be a part of, one of the best brands in racing, I set it on my Twitter feed and I set it on TBG.
It just was very, very thankful and very humble that they wanted us to be a part and to represent them. And so we’re really looking forward to kind of officially kicking it off. We’ve done a little bit of work here. In the last few weeks, but this is really where we get started and sort of dive right in fantastic stuff as a horseplayer as a racing fan.
What are some of the things you’re particularly looking forward to about this Kinlin spring meet? Well, I think it’s interesting that we’re starting on a Thursday. I mean, there’s, you know, sort of the purist, I think that are shocked that the traditional Friday opening day, but I love it. I mean, why not?
Any extra Caitlin racing is something that I’m happy about. And they kick it off with a three-year-old turf sprinters in the Palisades. So that’s the feature for opening day. And of course the bluegrass, I mean, that’s going to be a highlight the Lexington. I think there’s a chance you might get if you West coast horses to the Lexington this year, just trying to catch up on some of those points.
So that’s something that I’ll be focusing in on. And, you know, the two year old racing with Wesley ward is always a highlight. This time of year, and you might get a glimpse of a horse that you could see at Royal, ask it from him. I heard a little buzz about Lord lady, a really his little sister, lady Pauline, who debuts this meat.
So there’s a lot to look forward to at just as far as the racing goes. And to be honest, I do need to do a lot more handicapping still. I’ve got six hours on the plane today, so I have everything downloaded on my iPad, everything ready to go? On my computer at my noise, canceling headphones. I’m ready to spend that time studying and really getting set for the next couple of days.
Fantastic. JK, you want to jump in with a question here? Yeah. Christina, we’ve obviously all seen you on TVG and HR TV and all the different stuff that you’ve been a part of. Um, We haven’t all got to know how you kind of came to the game. Obviously your, your family was involved. She tell the listeners a little bit, like what brought you to horse racing.
That’ll probably be a great segue for us to talk about the project you guys are working on out West right now. Yeah, a little bit of everything for me. I mean, my dad was a jockey, so I grew up obviously in the business, but I will say that my mom kind of kept us a little bit more removed from it than some kids that, you know, sort of grew up with a family member that was working in racing.
I was a horse person. I would show jumping every weekend and going to horse shows and going to horse camp. Every spring break and every summer. So I was always interested in the horses and about the horses, but in terms of the actual racing, it was kind of just what my dad did. Just, I didn’t really realize that it was unique or special until I was older.
It was just part of, you know, our life and our life revolved around horses. And then when I was, uh, in high school and sort of applying to college and trying to figure out what I wanted to do with my life, I decided that television was the direction I wanted to go. Unfortunately, the USC school of broadcast journalism is one of the best ones that out here on the West coast, I was admitted to that as a freshmen and started my degree right away and also started my internship right away.
And I worked for a lot of, sort of. High-profile companies that look great on your resume. I worked for Carson daily and I worked for extra and I worked for MTV and it all looked great. I didn’t actually do anything. I was in these big companies and I was, you know, in the mail room or getting coffee or FedExing or logging tapes.
And so my senior year, I really, we wanted some very practical experience. And my dad was the one that suggested that I call Amy Zimmerman at HGTV. And he said, you know, it’s, it’s, it’s a TV network, but it’s a little smaller and maybe you’ll get a chance to really kind of get your feet wet. And that’s exactly what happened.
I was so fortunate. I was on air before I had graduated and really, it was sort of a marriage of the two things that I loved and that I wanted to do. And truthfully, when I started, I wasn’t sure how long I would stay in horse racing, but now I cannot imagine doing anything else. I can’t imagine. Not being there every weekend.
It’s just, it’s what I love. And now, you know, my husband’s a horse trainer and the kids love it. I mean, it’s, it’s our life. It’s, it’s more of a life than, than a job for, I think anybody that kind of lives and breathes this sport the way a lot of us do. When you’re looking at the PPS and putting yourself in the mind of a horse player, how much does it help you to have that connection to the riding side of the game and the training side of the game?
And how much does that change? The way you look at the races on the page? It does quite a bit. So I will say that as far as my sort of process goes, I look at a lot of different things. I look at third graph. Um, I check a lot of workout reports. I use step three splints to kind of save some angles and stuff.
Algorithms and things that I know, I always want to be alerted to certain things that just kind of piqued my interest. Um, and then I also, I think just going back to having the practical time on horses myself, I watch a lot of replays because that’s where I gather the most information, because I do feel the most comfortable kind of in a horse person.
Perspective. And so that to me is one of my most useful tools. Okay. But then on the other side of it in the last, you know, dozen or so years of Dan and I have been together, I’ve been able to bounce so many ideas and learn so much more just from watching his process and understanding that there is so much more to it than what you find on paper.
So I think I ended up starting with the data then going to the replays, then trying to kind of put my self in the. Trainers perspective and put my trainer cap on, so to speak and try to figure out what the attentions are and come to a conclusion. From there it’s, it’s a lot, but it comes fast to now just because it’s repetition.
And like I say, it’s, it’s part of my life. So I do it every day. Kay’s described it sort of as a muscle memory that you develop. It can sound like a lot of steps, but once you do it enough in real time, it can happen rather quickly. It sounds like that’s sort of a similar to what you’re describing. Yeah, I think that’s a very accurate description, actually.
That’s perfect because it is. And it’s also something that, you know, for example, this meet at Cayman does, as you start this week, you’ll start to look or, you know, Maybe you’re handicapping horses or horse men that you’re not as familiar with because they’re coming from so many different angles or directions, but by the time you hit, you know, the weekend, you really hit your stride and you, you kind of get back into it and it comes very naturally and quickly as, as you spend the time looking over at all.
I know you’ve got a plane to catch, but I want to spend a couple of minutes before we let you go talking about this hashtag that I know you are involved in. I am horseracing. What a perfect time for this. I’ll go ahead and call it a movement to have developed. Tell us a little bit about I am horse racing and your involvement in it.
Yeah. So I am horse racing is a group of us that live out here on the West coast that, you know, we all have our separate sort of jobs and interests within the game. But what brings us together is that we do love it and that this is our livelihood and that this is something that, you know, we felt really compelled that we wanted to share.
And it’s really. It’s about us telling the world that horse racing is bigger than what is being talked about right now. And it’s so much more complicated than what is being said and what you might be seeing on social media. This is a lot of people whose lives depend on this sport. This has a lot of people who.
Desperately care about their horses and their families, and that these animals are their families. And they spend, you know, up to 12, 14, 15 hours a day with the horses. And I think what we really wanted to try and share is that this is an industry that loves the horse. And so the implication that we don’t is not true.
And we felt like from our perspective, You know, some of us are in media. Some of us are in public relations. Some of us are in social media. This was our niche. This is what we were good at. And this was what we could contribute to, like you say, a broader movement and just to try and gain support and rally everyone together because there’s so much good and there’s so much love.
And there are so many stories that I feel like I know a lot of people in this game, but there’s a story that I learn every day about someone. And somebody horse and it is really touching. And those are the stories that we wanted to share, because we want everybody to hear that. Not just our bubble in horse racing, we want it to be as big and as global of a movement as we can carry it.
I got goosebumps, Christine, as you were talking, it means so much to me personally. And I know to so many of us out there and among the things that I love about it. Not just those messages, but the way the express, this, what a mountain in certain ways to a defense of the sport, but in a way that’s not at all defensive in a way that’s just honest about showing how it really is.
And I thank you for it. And I know a lot of our listeners feel the same way. Anything you can give us about the, how this went from being an idea to being something that we all saw on our Twitter feeds. Yeah. Well, I think like you say, you kind of hit the nail on the head. We want it to be responsible about it.
And we wanted to, in a way, say thank you to the people that don’t have a voice, because there are a lot of people in this game that have big feelings about what’s going on and they want to share. How much they love these horses and we didn’t want to come across as any kind of direct response. We want it to be sort of an ongoing education and we have a lot more videos to come right now.
And like, if I’m going to keep on this week, we’re going to gather some content there. We’ve had interest expressed from overseas, from Australia and from England people that want to share their stories as well. So the bigger that we can make it, and hopefully at some point, if we can drum up some funding, we’ll have the reach to do that because right now it’s really just been.
A labor of love. We sat for a few hours last night because some people were home from Dubai. The rest of us hadn’t left for Kaitlin. So we said, okay, we have to put our minds together and see what we can do, you know, right now. And we’d like to make more sophisticated content. We’ll have a website coming where essentially it’s about an ongoing education.
It’s somewhere where people can go and all of this information can live and can be used as a resource for anyone that wants to know about this game, whether it’s a young person that might. Want to work in this game, whether it’s a media person that might be telling a story about horse racing that doesn’t know very much, they can refer to.
I am horse racing and we can all send them to, I am horse racing and we can help educate people that might be reacting to information that they don’t know a lot about. There’s a lot of sensational headlines. And if you can really start to look at what’s underneath and the people that are here that are dedicated to these horses, we feel like this could.
Educate people and let them make their own decision about how much love we have for this sport and for these animals. And like I said, we want it as big as possible. I mean, we have very big plans and we’d like to take it global because that’s one of the greatest things about this sport. That’s what I love.
You know, my husband was fortunate enough to do the Darley flying start course. And so he learned about racing all over the world and he has friends in Australia, in Hong Kong in Ireland, in South America, everywhere you go. He has friends because of horses. And so we feel like we can use those connections.
Those horses can bring everybody together to share these stories on a global perspective. So great. And thank you so much. We’re going to let you go. I’ll just leave it as an open offer. Anything we can do here, either on the Keeneland select players podcast, or our other show in the money players podcast, to help out, to help spread the word.
Anything you need from us. We want to help you in any way we can. You’re doing great work. We can’t wait to see you on the Keeneland feed. Hopefully get a chance to see you in person down in Lexington. Thanks so much. Oh, thank you so much, guys. We love it. And we are so grateful for the support of everybody, of the way that people have embraced this.
I think it shows that, you know, our, our industry was sort of craving for something along these lines and, you know, grab your phones. Everybody grabbed your smartphone, send us a tweet, send us an email, send us a text, make your own video and hashtag it because this is something that everybody can be a part of.
All you need is your phone and, and your story, because that’s what we want to hear. Thanks a lot, Christina, we’ll be talking soon. Thanks guys. Well, JK that’s certainly was a lot of fun, real treat to have Christina blacker on what a pro and I’m excited to get a chance to listen to her work throughout this Caitlin meet.
I’m going to have to send, uh, send them a text message. I have a great idea for, I am horseracing. We’ve got to get Bay chalk to tell the story about how he rescued the, the horse story. Now. Yes, that’d be, that’d be a great story for, I am horseracing to kind of tie in tie in the gambler’s perspective and, and how much, you know, we care about the horses, even though we don’t get to put our hands on them, like the other people in the industry, there’s no better illustration of the connection between horseplayer and horse rescue than that story.
I think it’s a great idea. I think you should text Bay Chuck while we’re talking. So while I introduce our next guests, you send that text message. We good. Yeah, I’m only, yeah, I’m muted. I’m muted. I wasn’t expecting to come back then we’ve got this unbelievable chemistry. When I know you’re going to throw it to me and every now and then he throw me a curve ball and you come in too quick, get used to this on the new Keelan select players podcast.
These, this type of back and forth is going to become a regular. And speaking of regulars, I want to bring in a horse player. And budding pundit. Who’s going to be part of many of these keen Lind shows. I suppose we should talk about the schedule a little bit. Haven’t done that looks like we’ll be doing two extra shows a week.
In addition to the regular, in the money podcast, we’ll be doing two Caitlin select players podcasts a week, many weeks. One of them we’ll look at Friday. The other Sunday, you can go to the other. Feed the, in the money players podcast for your Saturday Caitlin coverage, which will be expanded on there this week.
We’re going to do things a little differently because it’s the beginning of the meet. We’re going to spend a few minutes, previewing the meat from a horseplayer perspective. And then we’re going to take a look at some races on Thursday and Friday, and to help us do that, couldn’t come up with anybody better than Lexington based professional.
Horseplayer Sean Borman. Sean, how are you today? I’m doing great, Steve, thanks for having me on our pleasure truly now in a future show, probably the very next show. We’re going to do a little bit more of a getting to know Sean piece. Cause I think a lot of people are interested in the fact that there are 30 something professional horse players out there, but that’s not what we’re going to do on this show on this show.
I want to talk, as I said, a little bit more generally about the keen Lynn meeting. As a pro horse player. Sean, how important is this meat to you? Is it a cornerstone of your betting year or is it just another meeting? You know, it depends. Um, it certainly has been a cornerstone in the past. Um, I’ve had some very good team in meetings, but I’ve also had some really bad chemo.
Just sort of depends on how I’m going, leading into the meek. I always love to play team when it’s my own track. Um, I feel like I have them. Slightly bigger heads there than most places. But no, I tried not to just focus on Keenan because I think at times that could lead to bad, you know, bad results. If you’re too focused on one place and it’s not working there, you need to be.
Adaptable and, and you know, if chemo didn’t do anything for you, you need to be able to go back somewhere else. So, uh, it really just depends on how the meat starts out over the years. Have you had a particular type of race at Keene Lynn that you do well or don’t do well in dirt versus turf, baby races versus races for older horses, et cetera.
My least favorite race is the baby races in the spring. I just have no. No, I’m not a workout guy. I don’t have any trust in any of the tips that are floating around. So I generally try to avoid those races. I would say mainly I’ve done the best in dirt races for, you know, up and coming three-year-olds and two year olds in the fall.
Well, that’s certainly something we’re going to be talking a lot about when we get down to the specifics, you create a lot of your own data. Do you suppose that’s why those races are among your favorites? You feel like you can maybe trust your data. That’s created from the perspective of a gambler, looking to cash bats, as opposed to having to worry about how a figure looks in terms of the, the larger industry, the way that a commercial figure maker would.
Yeah, I think that’s absolutely part of it. Um, you know, I, I create my figures to tell me if a race was extra fast or extra slow. Um, I’m not going to adjust the figure if it just doesn’t seem right. I leave it the way it is because I want to know. That the rice, you know, was a very fast racer, very slow race.
So I think that’s part of it. I think, I don’t know. I just think there’s a little more form and in races, particularly at Keenan, when you’ve gotten good connections, running good horses and pointing for certain targets that. Those horses are a little more formal than, than some others. J K, I want to bring you back in to ask you about what your favorite races to bet at Keeneland are.
Where do you expect to be spending most of your dollars? This meat? You know, I, I actually kinda liked the baby races. I think they’re kinda fun. Um, I think that, you know, look at it’s I understand exactly where Sean’s coming from. I am more of a workout guy than Sean is. So that’s probably part of the reason that that’s fun.
I think there’s a fun puzzle there trying to identify which horses are going to break from the gate, kind of that Zig and zag that we get to do at Saratoga when it comes to chat and Todd, you get to kind of try to do the Zig and zag at Lynn when it comes to Wesley and the two year old races. And obviously he’s.
Uh, very proficient in those races and getting those horses to break from the gate and to, to finish up going to four and a half and even the five when they stretch out at Churchill. So, um, I think those races are fun, but I kinda like the three-year-old races and you know, the stakes are fine too, but the, the maiden races where you got horses that ran some kind of cool races when they were two and they had a break and now they’re coming back and you can really find trainers that are pointing to win a race at Keeman.
Uh, usually the connections. Of all these horses have some connection to Lexington, whether it was the farm that they were raised on or the, or the, or the, the stallion, you know, farm that they were, that they were, uh, created on. So there’s a lot of like fun ties with that. So I kind of like those races where you can find those two-year-old old races that suggested that if this horse improves a little bit, it’ll be really tough today in this three-year-old race.
Interesting. I like that idea. We have a piece I should mention right now by our self-professed data nerd, John Kamado up at, in the money podcast.com previewing the Keeneland meet from the perspective of connections. There’s some really interesting stuff in there. Maybe I’ll ask you guys some questions.
Based on that at some point, but folks should definitely go check that out in full in the money podcast.com. It’s going to be a couple of posts back in the feed pretty soon because we’re posting all these new podcasts, but you’ll know which one it is. John Kamado is the author, and it’s a look at the keen spring.
Meet through data. You don’t want to miss that. I want to ask you guys each about pet angles that you might have at Keeneland and J K I’ll start with you. And then we’ll segue this back over to Sean. Is there a particular angle over the years, JK that you’ve had success with at this Caitlyn spring meet?
Some of the things I like to do is when you’re looking at the turf races at keen Lynn, I’m not a big believer in. I don’t necessarily always look to the, you know, your PPS, that kind of box at the top, right. Where it’ll tell you, you know how this horse has performed performed on this course or at this distance, or blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
I do care if horses like and run well on the keel and turf course, I’m not a hoarder hoarder. What is it? A horticulturist? Yeah, you almost nailed it. You almost nailed it in one. If you just gone with confidence, you you’d have got that one in one. Well, you know what I meant? I don’t know. So between grass and blah, blah, blah, but apparently it’s a much, it’s a different Sandy or based turf course.
Some horses like it, some don’t. So I do try to take a look at that. If a horse has run here, a talented horse, who’s going to be bet. Who’s had three tries over and has never been in the money. Then, possibly that horse doesn’t like it. So I’ll look at that. Um, I’ll let Shawn speak to this, but I do know that the about seven and a half is a very tough distance to make it figure out.
So when you’re betting horses out of those races, Um, maybe towards the back half of the meat, if they show back up again, be, be aware of that. Cause that could be, uh, an, uh, possible, uh, issue that you need to be aware of. And then something I’ve been working on, but I still have not come up with a conclusion is I think there’s a certain type of horse that runs really well on the mile and a 16th short stretch races at Keelan on the dirt.
I don’t know exactly what it is. I feel like it’s a horse that runs well on the turns and it can get himself into position. Before the turn or in the turn and the start of the turn. Um, but I’m still working through that, but I, you know, it’s a fun fund meet. There’s a lot of different angles and those are some of the ones that I take a look at.
It’s funny, you mentioned that JK about the short stretch, because John Kamado is continuing to work on a number of database pieces for this keenly meet. They’ll all be available in that feed. Some point we’ll have John here. To talk about his findings, but one of the things he’s really interested in is an analysis of how differently, if at all the short stretch races at Keeneland play than the ones using the other finish line.
So we’ll have more about that. Sean, I do want to ask you about your pet angles too, but let’s start off with your comments on where JK was coming from. Have you noticed over the years that as JK was suggesting, this Keeland turf course is particularly. I don’t know if the right word is susceptible to horses for courses.
Does it play differently than a lot of other turf courses? Or is this something that’s more of a narrative than something that you’ve found? In fact, no, I don’t know if it plays any differently than, than most surf courses. I mean, you could win on the lead of keen when uncertain days. Um, you can win coming from well behind.
It’s just, you know, however, the pace dynamics of those races play out, but it definitely. Is a course that some horses take too, and some horses don’t like, um, and like JK, I have no idea why that is, but it does seem to be a course that, you know, certain horses just don’t care for it. That much sources will be great best coming back at church Hill or shipping up to New York after chemo.
And if they run poorly. So that’s a great point. You can make, you can use that information, not just to help you with bets at this meet, but in, through making a horse note, something that can maybe excuse an effort and you come back to a horse a little bit later in the spring or early summer, Sean, to your, to your point earlier, how often do does the turf course at Kaitlin?
Uh, become, uh, become favoring of a certain style or, or, or, or a certain path. How, how often does that happen? I kind of remember in the last couple of years, maybe where the inside became pretty good for a little bit. Um, so how often does that happen in your experience at, at, at, uh, at chemo? You know, I’m a little different on bias now than I used to be.
I used to think it happened a lot more frequently than it does now. Um, I’ve just sort of, I’ve tampered the way I look at bias a little bit. And if I can find reasons to explain what’s happening in the race, other than just saying, Oh, it’s a speed track or out of rail is good. I tend to lean on other reasons if they make sense.
Um, so I don’t think it happens all that often, but there’s definitely times when, when it’s better to save around it better to be up close. Um, but I, I, I generally think most of it’s just circumstances, pace dynamics, I think is the main thing you’re talking about. Yes. Yeah. The flow, you know, the flow of the race and, and whether or not the participants in the race can handle today’s race flow dictates most things.
In my opinion. What about that question? JK brought up about the difficulty of making figures at seven and a half at Keeneland. Is that something you have found to be true? And how do you deal with that? Um, I think, I think the seven and a half figures are a little more difficult just because you have a much smaller sample size over the years to work with, to, you know, to build your pars off of, and to lean on when you’re making those figures.
But. I don’t, I don’t have that in my mind when I’m betting a horse coming out of those races that, you know, um, I just sort of trust the figure I make and then go on with it. Do you find there’s more variation between your figure and the commercial figures at that distance than others? No. No. I think there’s just the same amount of variation at all distances, which is plenty.
Right. Um, yeah, for the most part, I mean, my figures tend to be fairly different than, than most out there. Yeah. And I think part of that has to do with the fact that you’re looking always looking at the race, broken down into different pace segments, as opposed to just looking at a final number that enables you to tell the story of a race through whatever it is, three or four data points, instead of just trying to tell it through one data point.
That’s one of the things I think when we get to the nitty gritty of discussing races, that people are going to notice that’s a little bit. Different with the way that you look at the world. And speaking of the way you look at the world, do you have a pet angle you might want to put forward here that you’re looking forward to utilizing at this meet or one that’s just proven successful in the past that you’re hoping will go forward?
Yeah. You know, I’ve had a lot of success over the years, particularly at Keeneland fading speed horses that, that, you know, sprinters that have won impressively. That are going to make the lead in a route race, but have never shown the ability to pass horses. And I’ve never been the distance. Um, and a lot of times it’s for really good trainers.
You know, they’ll ship a pressure in that broke his maiden down to gold street, going six or seven, and try to route him today. Sometimes even in a know. No stake race. I’ve had a lot of success dating those horses and betting on the horses that have proven they can go the distance and proven they can pass horses.
That’s a great one. And I love how contrarian it is. Speaking of which I want to refer to the John Kamado piece that we talked about earlier. This isn’t just a keen one thing. This is an everywhere thing, but I thought that the numbers at Keeneland really brought. This handicappers dilemma into relief. He looked at all the Chad Brown starters over the last six meats or whatever it was.
And he looked at them through two metrics. One is called impact value and impact value measures. For those who don’t know how often an event occurs, as opposed to how often it’s quote unquote, supposed to. Occur based on number of instances and other aspects of probability, it’s defined much more eloquently in John’s piece that I’m doing justice.
Now, the other is the more familiar return on investment. What happens to every dollar bet on a certain angle? How much money does it win or lose? So Chad Brown at Keeneland, they win according to impact value. They win 20% more than they should. And yet return a paltry ROI on a $1 amount. So, and I’ll start with you JK for this one.
How do you deal with Chad Brown? And I guess we can open this up specifically at Kaitlin, but really anywhere as a horseplayer wanting to be contrarian knowing you wins even more than he’s supposed to win. How do you deal with it? Well, I think the same question can be asked. And so I’m going to answer both of them.
I think the same question could be asked with, with Wesley and the two year old races, right? It’s like, um, in the last two years, or the last year, Wesley was one 38% of his two old races. Right. And the, and there wasn’t actually a positive ROI there. Chat, obviously doesn’t have that for me. It’s it’s you either single aggressive press.
Or you or you, or you try to beat them or you don’t play in the pool, but like, those are like the only three things you should do. I, I don’t, I do not believe that you should play a turf race at keen Lynn and the late pick four sequence or pick five sequence, play it, play the play late, pick five, and you use six horses in a turf race, including two CHADS.
Like that fundamentally is wrong. You either need to press the good Chad. Press both CHADS live or die by Chad or toss Chad, like you can’t use six horses in a spread late and then use the two chat horses you’re going to end up upside down and equity when it comes to that. So that’s kind of how I would handle that situation is, is, you know, you kind of know that, you know, indirectly, without even knowing the math, that, that this Chad situation is going to be problematic for you at Keelan and also at Niara, uh, throughout the rest of the year.
So that’s how I would go about it. Kamado made a funny joke in the piece. He said, well, clearly the takeaway here is you only play Chad Brown when he wins. Sean, how do you deal with Chad Brown at Keeneland and elsewhere? Well, you know, it’s tricky. Um, I don’t think you necessarily have to either single or fade him, but tickets that you do use him on, you might want to use some longer prices than the other legs.
No. I always say, you know, you have to play the race two ways and you know, the fifth race on Thursday is a pretty good example because Chad has a really short price favorite, um, that is probably gonna win. So what do you do? You know, you just keep him on top and, and try to link a long shot with him or.
He passed away. So JK said, if you don’t really like the horse, it’s, it’s, it’s tough. But you know, what I would typically do is press him and then use another ticket to fade him a little bit. And even if you, you know, even if you catch a, you know, if you, if you’re playing a pick four and you only, you hit it because Chad weigh-ins and you only break even.
Or say you even lose 10% of your wager. That’s not the end of the world. I mean, the worst case scenario is you lose a hundred percent of your wages getting even half your money back, if you have more money to play the next day. So I don’t think it’s the biggest disaster in the world to play chop, chop, tickets like that.
But it is, you know, strictly it’s, he’s a tricky guy to deal with because he never pays. Of course, I think for, I think for me, yeah, on that topic, the reason that I lean, the reason I feel like I leaned more towards, you know, the kind of black or white version of that, whether you’d see there either press, press single on the black side or fade on the white side.
I, the reason I try to stay away from the gray as I feel like the gray with a meat, as challenging as keenly, Caitlin is with the, if you play a lot of gray tickets, Yeah, when you do hit, you’re never going to make enough and you’re still gonna miss more than you’re going to hit. Like, you know, like we all are going to play it on doing it’s hard to pick fives and pick fours.
And so I just feel like you, you eventually, your equity kind of gets skimmed away by continuing to, to when you are hitting, you’re not making enough, but if you can hit, when you, when you either press Chad black or you fade Chad white, I feel like you’ll make more money to do the exact same thing that you’re talking about, which is to have more money to play as you go on throughout the me it’s different and approaches.
And part of it, I think is the difference between Sean playing 300 days a year. And I mean, even as much as JK plays, it’s still at a different level. It’s, it’s an enthusiastic amateur. Level as opposed to grinding it out every day. And I, my gut tells me that that is the difference behind the two different approaches you’re hearing to the, this question of Chad Brown.
Does that sound about right to you, Sean? Absolutely. I’ve got to think about, you know, being in business a year from now and what my bankroll is going to look like from now until then. And not necessarily how I can score out on the pick for a team and on Thursday, you know, I need to be in position to, to keep betting the next day and the next day and the next day.
So for me, it’s just very important. Limiting losses is far more important to me as a professional player than big wins, because I know eventually big wins will come, but what puts you out of business is losses. Um, and I’ve seen. Many times over the years, guys will do really great handicapping, put together a ticket and, you know, catch a $50 horse and leg three and fade the obvious favorite leg forward and not, not cash a penny on that bet when they did the hard part.
And that to me is just really poor back construction, but it’s totally different for me than it is for most people. Most people. Are playing for a living. Most people are playing for fun and playing to, to catch the pig for that day. So it’s just two different approaches in two different mindsets that you have to have when you’re at the races.
To me. Preservation of capital is the business school concept that I think Sean’s really talking about. And obviously that does matter a lot more when you’re talking about doing it, uh, doing it for a living though, JK, you wouldn’t disagree with that idea. I mean, I think if you were clever enough in another leg, you might still include the Chad Brown.
You were otherwise looking to fade or not. Even then I completely agree with Sean. Like I don’t, I don’t have the burden of having to. Um, uh, have to stay in business, right? Like this is, like you said, it’s an enthusiastic amateur level for me. Right. And so having to do it every day and to grind it out, that is a much safer approach.
It keeps the money churning. It keeps you in business, keeps the rebate flowing. It does all these things that, uh, that, that, you know, my, my situation to my aggressiveness might not reward, but that’s why it kind of works for me in the contest scene. And so I, I do completely agree with that to the best way to go about it.
If that’s your, if that’s your, uh, your betting appetite and your goal, it’s what we always talk about is what’s your goal. People always ask. Well, you know, Hey man, I’m going to track, man. I got a hundred bucks. Can you like send me a bit? Yeah, buddy. I can send you a bet, but like what, what’s your goal? Like, do you just, you want to leave there with your a hundred?
Do you want to pay for your beers? Do you want to leave at 10,000, but probably leave a zero? Like what, what, what’s your. What’s your goal. Cause that obviously will make a huge difference on how you approach sequences is a great conversation. It could really be its own podcast. I have one other general meat question and then we’ll try to address it somewhat quickly.
It’s as much as anything I want to highlight, just something cool and surprising that John Kamado found in the data piece. And then we’re going to move on and talk about some of these Thursday and Friday races. We’ll probably have to go a little rapid fire. I want to keep all of these shows under an hour.
And most of them will be more like 20 minutes or 30 minutes. We want to make them digestible a little bit different here today. This is the first show I want it to be a bit more evergreen. So that’s why I don’t mind going off in the weeds here. Very interesting in terms of trainers who do not do well at those at Keeneland at those metrics.
John was looking at top of the list in terms of poor ROI and impact value. Graham motion, Ken McPeak and bill ma I was really surprised. And John’s instinct was almost to go into auto fade mode because the numbers are so poor in terms of those metrics. Now I always reserve the right. Hey, if I love a horse, I love a horse.
I’ll tell the statistics to shut up in that instance, but. I do love having these statistics as an underpinning. And I wonder if it isn’t as simple as so many people just automatically including and or pressing these well-known names at the Keeneland meet Sean. What’s your view? Is that something you knew before this article told you that those trainers didn’t have good numbers and, and does it affect how you’ll look at them at all?
Going forward? No. I was actually very surprised, um, especially with Ken McPeak, cause he’s a guy in my mind that usually does fairly well at keeping them. So that, that really surprised me. Um, I will say all those guys are very good trainers. All those guys are perfectly capable of winning a team one. So if you like one of their horses.
Don’t miss a big score because it’s trained by one of those three. Yeah. I think that’s very good. The case to me where the, the staff could be lying to you just a little bit. Yeah. And, and you need to, you know, you need the best horses first, not the connections in my opinion anyways, but don’t, you know, if you like a mod 15 to one, don’t, don’t fade it because of that stat.
It might keep me from singling though. It might keep me from singling, a short price model at the other end of the spectrum. It might make me say, Hey, you know what? I’m just going to take a few percent of my bank roll here and maybe do something else with it. Does that sound like a valid approach potentially based on this data?
Absolutely. You know, price should dictate everything you do. So, um, if you’ve got. And even money mot, maybe you want to stay away based on that side, but if you like one at a price, I would include it. And maybe even key it preface just, you know, the, the last thing you need to look at is the price of the horse you like, and that should make the ultimate decision.
J K your views on this issue before we dive into some specifics, I think my quick answer is, you know, it’s something I think you can find at Oaklawn. Um, a little bit at Saratoga, also at Keenan Del Mar where, uh, there’s a bigger influx of like uneducated money that’s participating, you know, when you see Keene Lynn and you see the crowds that they draw in of people that don’t, you know, bet horses any other time of the year.
Uh, I mean, I got a bunch of friends in Lexington that they, they don’t, they don’t even know that they race. Other than four weeks in the spring and four weeks in the fall, they don’t understand that it happens elsewhere. So I think that part of that is, is that those guys get bet for obvious reasons. Um, bill Mott is a hall of Famer Graham motion had his rise and, and does really well.
And I think that Graham probably brings a lot of tar forces, turf racing, being very complicated here. That I bet that affects his kind of his, uh, his, his ROI there. He’s probably takes a little bit of money cause they all look capable. They’re all bred. Well, and then he probably isn’t winning as much. And then can you make pizza like a hometown guy, right?
I’m sure a lot of people come to Keelan and just want to bet Katy McPeak cause he grew up here Tate’s Creek high school. Right, right. Yeah. I get that right, Sean, on my showing impressive local knowledge or am I butchering it?
Tate’s Creek. All I know about Tate’s Creek is there’s a bunch of restaurants over there. What restaurant do I always go to over there? Sean Tate’s Creek. What is that? Uh, play street. You’ve got to be going to Malone’s or Drake’s or one of those places I would imagine. I’m sorry. I have to say this. We have never had this conversation yet.
Have you guys seen this video that ed DeRosa and James Scully did where they’re talking about places to eat in Lexington and the place that they talked about for two minutes was a place called Chophouse. Then I’ve been in Lexington 478 times. I’ve never even heard of it. And then I’ve talked to three other locals that have all said, like, what in the heck are they talking about?
So I even messaged ed to ask him if he got paid to like, say that and he swears up and down, he didn’t get paid. He just actually thinks it’s underrated. All right. Fair enough. Have you been Sean? You’ve got a, you’ve got a keen palette. I’ve been in Chophouse. It’s probably been. 20 years. I think we had like a pre prom dinner back in the nineties.
And the only thing I know about the trap house now is that my wife’s parents let’s go there for lunch. So we’re definitely creating a picture of a certain type of restaurant that was popular in proms in the nineties. And anyway, I don’t know how we got off on this rabbit hole, but I’m going to do my duty as a host and pivot.
I think you’d finished your main thought there yesterday. Okay. Absolutely. I was just focusing on the local vibes of, of, of Tate’s Creek and all that stuff. That’s how we ended up there. So I wouldn’t look too deep. Your larger point, I think is good. The larger point, I think, is really good here, and I will underline it before we move on.
And it’s just that these certain, certain connections or like, Victims of their own success in some, in like the ROI stats, especially in that people want to bet them because they’ve had such success in the past. So if you have a fallow couple of years, few meats that could just be randomness well within the standard deviation and it just drags those numbers down and it doesn’t look pretty, but it doesn’t mean like Sean said before the numbers couldn’t be lying to you a little bit and it could, it could turn around in a hurry, but it’s still useful knowledge to know.
That the market is overvaluing those folks. So anyway, take that for what it’s worth there. You have it for much more. Go to end the money podcast.com and read that John Camarda article more to come previewing, this keen meat. And now we’re going to move on to the Thursday card opening day. Love this Thursday opening.
So cool. Wish I could be there. Can’t come down until Friday just because of life circumstances. Sean, not going to ask you to talk about race one based on what you said about often passing these four and a half Furlong maiden races, but JK, I know you have some thoughts to share. Well, I just think it’s always a fun race.
Everyone’s going to turn it on. Even if you’re not, uh, if you’re not ready to participate, you’re saving your money for the late pick five. Most people will still turn it on, you know, uh, at three o’clock on Thursday to just to kind of get the vibe here, Kurt Becker. And hopefully hit us with a, a whining on a five links.
So, um, take it. You got to finish the quote today. I’m just excited. I think it’s always fun. They, the first baby race that you get to see these sires that, that are going to be, you know, throwing their first two year olds, Danza carpet DM, I think Byron palace malice. So that’s always exciting. And it’s pretty interesting to notice that Wesley ward has both of his horses on the list.
I don’t know how that happened. If it was unlucky. Situation or if it was a paperwork thing. So keep an eye out for a scratch there to see if one of the Wesley’s get in. Uh, it’s going to be a lot of fun. I can’t wait for the first race. Excellent. No specific tips you’re reserving your right. Well, I mean, I guess if the Wesley’s get in, right, obviously those are ones that you want to consider.
If they don’t, then you go to the, you kind of go to the larger version. Uh, no pun intended of Wesley ward and you, and you go with, uh, John Hancock, right? He, he gets real horses ready, uh, to run as two year olds and, and get them, uh, has them, he’s got Jose RTS. On this horse nurse, Maggie Sue, which is obviously a hunch play with, uh, with our friend, Sean Boardman on the show a hundred percent.
That’s what I was going to do with my little girl Maggie. So I’m going with the 11 there’s Maggie. Sue. Yeah, there you go. sometimes it’s as easy as that. Let zip ahead to race five. Sean referenced it before Chad Brown’s instilled regard making the return to the races coming off that third in the Hollywood Derby.
Last December, Sean, we’ll start with you on this. When you kind of already tipped your hand, is all your money going to go through instilled regard in this one? Is it more of a, of a pass spot? Is there an alternative you see at a price? I, you know, I do see an alternative. I’m interested in the five horse frankincense.
Um, he looks like he’s improving to me. He was a pretty nice horse with Mandela. And then Christopher Davis, as of now, he one off a long layoff and then came right back and won again. And it sort of has an improving figure pattern to me. So, you know, way I would play this race would be the key frankincense.
In all, you know, if you’re playing the trial three spots and then come back and press him with instilled in regard to winning the race. And that way, if you get lucky and then still regarded and fifth runs out and gets in trouble, for some reason, you could catch a really nice ticket and then you could still, you know, still do really well.
The frankincense, where to rent frack into the, to the heavy safely. At 20 to one on the morning line for the son of Frankel, seems like a very sharp approach. This is a horse who’s been closing, but has not been benefited by closer favoring, uh, flows and setups. That’s one thing I see right away to sort of underline the point on frankincense JK.
What do you do? I agree. I thought instilled regard isn’t is going to be a, is going to be likely he’s. I think he’s. Tactical enough to get forward into that position. Think you’ll end up getting that beautiful pocket trip on beautifully, fresh, not run on grass. Uh, Caitlin at the beginning started the meat.
I think he’ll be right in there. And if he gets lucky with a little bit of a hole late, I think he’ll be, uh, too good for these. I thought misspent youth at 12 on the outside for Ben Colebrook was interesting. Uh, that horse has some, uh, has some figures that kind of fit here. Time form us projects. The horse could be forward on a slow pace.
Um, he’s drawn outside. So you think you might get that hustled ride where he can get that position moving forward? I think he could be one that could be interesting at a price. And then I’d also keep an eye on the 13 admissions office. If that orchard draws in not exactly my favorite move, anyone off of Chad Brown, but, but Brian Lynch is a guy that I think with that can keep a horse kind of going in the right direction that he might’ve got from Chad.
Although it was last September when he’d, when he’d get, when he got admission office. Ben Colebrook. One of those trainers who JK mentioned there, one of the trainers who had an impact value of greater than one and a better than $1 ROI in the study, just to give a little extra push in that direction.
Let’s conclude our coverage, our bonus coverage. We’ll call it of Thursday with a look at the stakes race that goes as Ray seven. J K, we talked about maybe recording a segment for our Sunday show with you, giving your final thoughts on this race in real time, we’ll reserve the right to do that or not do that based on how your day in the green room is going on Thursday, but sitting here a couple of days out or a day out, what is this featured race on opening day at Keenan looked like to you.
Well, I think obviously it starts with the horse bulletin, the two year old juvenile turf sprint champion who did it actually pretty impressively. Uh, if, if we, uh, if you can remember that race, uh, on reader’s cup Friday, um, so bulletin actually drawn outside. He’s got Javier, he’s got Todd gonna take a lot of money.
He’s got the connections he’s got the back races. It all makes sense. I think a horse that, that I’m going to probably try to play around with a little bit is Chelsea Cloisters drawn to the outside of bulletin. The 13 horse ran second to bulletin. Uh, that day was, was 24 to one. Uh, I remember specifically because I add Chelsea Cloisters and the pick five that day.
And I was, I was sure, hoping she was going to get by. Uh, get by bulletin there and she has a filly running against the boys taking the blinkers off for Wesley ward. I think that’s a sign that she’s going in the right direction. I think she’ll offer a little bit more value. And then bulletin and I think the horse down to the inside for Mark Cassie.
Yes, I am free. Who, who was a undefeated who won the Texas glitter down at Gulf stream should take a lot of money. I don’t really love those five for long sprinters from Gulf stream coming up to Keene Lynn running on a more demanding surface and running that extra half for long. I think that those horses are, are ones that you want to probably try to look.
To find excuses to beat them. To me, it’s the two outside horses, bulletin and Chelsea Cloisters, where most of my money will go. I don’t mind the Philly against the boys angle here. You’re getting the five pounds. And then just as an additional plus, coming off the layoff, I’ve heard a number of horsemen.
Talk about how off the bench. In first career starts, et cetera. Philly’s lighter frame. Sometimes easier to get fully fit than the male, uh, companions. So I wouldn’t hesitate to use Chelsea Cloisters, if that was one that you came up with on form, just because of that angle, either. Sean, who is it for you in this Palisades turf?
No, I agree with JK that, you know, the race goes through bulletin. He’s the best horse. Probably it’s going to get the best trip, um, and is the most likely winner. And I also agreed that Chelsea Cloisters is, is very interesting in it, in her own. Right. And she’s probably gonna sit outside of bulletin and get a very good trip herself and, and it hasn’t improved and figured that out.
Or, um, one that I was a little more interested in was strike silver. No, he to me was okay. The worst part of the track and the breeders’ cup day. Racist prior to that, or just good enough to win this. He can win on a lead. He can finish. No. I was going to try to use Stripe silver and Chelsea coasters underneath both of them.
Okay. Right. Let’s move on to Friday. We’re going to look quickly through the late pick four to round out this edition, this first ever edition of the Keelan select players podcast. We’ll start off on the turf with Ray seven and Sean Borman. We will keep it with you. Well, this is another one where you guys decide, you know, the race sorta goes through Chad Brown.
Um, he’s got the projected, we’ve got offering plan, probably the two best horses. And I honestly couldn’t come up with a great alternative. So for me, I would just use those two and move on to the next race, keeping it very simple. To start off the late pick for on opening Friday, just a couple hours after this, we’ll be congregating at Bell’s in downtown Lexington for the kickoff party.
We hope folks will join us. They’re open to the public. We’re going to be running a bar tab for the first little bit. Anyway. 50 50 raffle for our friends at the thoroughbred retirement foundation. Going to be a great night JK. Hopefully we’re going to be celebrating as well, hitting this late pick for how are we going to kick it off?
Yeah, I kind of agree with, with, uh, with Sean here. I think it’s the two CHADS, um, and I won’t waste too much time and I guess, I think fast and accurate as interesting for Mike maker. Now, the horse won on the lead last time, wired a wire. Um, I think he was actually dqued but yeah, he, we crossed the wire first, but, uh, um, ran well enough there.
He get to Joe. Well, Joelle’s dangerous on the front end. If the Chad horses are a little bit short or, or, or a little bit too far back, or get into some trouble fast and accurate to one, I think that could, could, uh, grab a piece or two there I’m completely against the article. They turned our glow into a long distance, you know, mile and a half type of horse that bringing them back off of a break since November, clearly this is to get them started for the rest of the year’s campaign.
I don’t see how he’s going to be ready to rock and roll. At a, at a mile and a 16th off of that long number layoff, however, he is wearing the green and yellow silks. So if I don’t use them, he’ll probably win. So do what you want to do there. There’s a call back to our other show and I was going to, uh, make a similar point.
If you didn’t give him, given our history with those, uh, with those silks, all the great success. Donna go racing have had over the last few years and usually JK and often me too, uh, end up getting punched in the face. But I agree. It does seem like more of a prep for longer. Sean, let’s move on to race eight on Friday.
Sure. This, uh, this is, you know, this is a tough race for me. I don’t have a super strong opinion and I just don’t see anybody I’m really interested in. So what I would do is take the Chad. U S Navy cross and, uh, Pletcher horse Intrepid hard. It was very impressive. First out at Oaklawn. Just use those two to try to get it, get through the race.
I think with the, with the Rick and Trev, that hard, you probably got the best speed horse. And with the Chad, you probably have the best closer, um, certainly the two best trainers. So. That’s where I would mind it in here. J K. Your thoughts. This is, this is an opposite of, of a, of a negative angle that Sean.
Gave you earlier. So I’m feeling a little bit insecure about it, but I agree about those two horses. I thought get the prize was an interesting horse. Who’s a wire to wire, winter going six furlongs stretching out like Sean told you 15 minutes ago, not to do. Um, the horse got a fast number that day.
Obviously Al stall wins races at Keem when he wins races. Uh, anywhere that he shows up, I think this horse could just be a, a talented horse. He’s a storm, you know, he’s a, uh, candy ride out of a Giant’s Causeway mayor. The, you got to think that the distance isn’t going to be a real issue. And I think there should be a little bit of value there with the chat and the Todd taking the rest of the money.
But outside of that, I think is a really tough race. Really. I mean, any of these horses could kind of jump up and you wouldn’t be shocked if stage left for Wesley one, you wouldn’t be shocked. Kerlin gray for me, peak one. You wouldn’t be shocked. So those are some of the issues here, but I kind of agree with Sean.
Just try to try to get skinny here, get alive to maybe some other opinions you might have later in the card. Let’s move on to the traditional opening day feature back. What opening day was this? Friday? The Transylvania J K. Let’s see, we’ve got to get some, uh, juice in these prices here at some point.
Could this be the spot? I was lucky enough to, um, I don’t say three months ago, like I had dinner with, with, with the Prince of Keala and Jake Ballis and a Rudolph percent was actually there. And I remember Rudy telling me how excited he was for the year that he thought he was going to have with the black album.
Um, I don’t know if this is the race that he meant that he was going to be ready to rock or not, but I just know that him being very interested in what this horse was going to become is enough for me to consider him in this spot drawn down inside. Gets Jose, uh, makes a ton of sense right there with that horse.
And then the other one was Henley’s joy, who was on the rise on the turf, down in Gulf stream at some really important, impressive races. They went ahead and tried the dirt. Now they’re back. To the turf. I think that’s probably where this horse wanted to be. Anyways. The big number that he ran back at, uh, in the pulpit at Gulf stream is enough that if you were in ones that race here, he should be extremely tough.
So those are the two that I’ll be focusing on the most. There’s obviously other horses in here that need to be considered and used louder than bombs. A war film is another one that you might want to consider if you’re, if you’re trying to spread in that, in that race, but those are the two that I’m going to try to get away with, but that’s the black album and Henley’s joy.
You got to love any race where you get musical references, including Jay Z and the Smiths. So I’m happy already, Sean, where do we go in this one? No, this was a spread race for me. Um, I have sort of positive opinions on, on all the horses JK mentioned. Um, the two I’m going to lean on the most out of the black album and louder than bombs.
Um, Louder than bombs has. It has an improving figure pattern to me and could offer some value. Um, but th this is a very tricky race and I could see one of seven or eight horses jumping up and winning this day. So what would your widest spread include or is there something you think might be at the shorter end of the OD spectrum that you’d recommend avoiding these?
Aren’t showing me the Moylan odds yet. So I. Don’t have a great feel for how to get a Baptist race, but I would certainly include the black album. I would certainly include obvious platter, um, ladder than bombs, war, film, and Henry’s joy. And that’s probably all I would need in there. And then come back and press the blackout album.
And rather than bombs on, on some press kits. There is one horse in here that we, neither of them has of us have mentioned that I just want to say out loud, I’m going to try to beat the horse. But, um, on the way to Neverland has a really fast race at Gulf stream going seven and a half, which is two turns as a two year old back in December has a fast race going down the Hill at six and a half, which plays very similarly to a mile and then has a pretty fast race going a mile and a 16th.
Uh, on the synthetic turf way now. So the horse is definitely capable. I just think the horse will be over bet. And I, I, I try to beat Wesley to turns. I just, I just try to, because it seems like his. His wheelhouse is sprinting. Not that he can’t do well. I mean, he did win a breeders cup, I believe with hootenanny going to turns, but I just try to beat him to turns.
And I’m going to try to do that here. If you are less risk averse than I am. And Sean is. Then then obviously you want to consider this horse, but I’m going to try to beat him. Race 10 is the race that decides what mood we’ll be in at the Keeneland spring meet party at Bell’s. That’s actually not true.
We’re going to be in a great mood regardless, it’s Kaitlin, but it will be the race that determines where we’re going out to dinner after. And I’ll steal one from my old friend and mentor Harvey Pak, who I had the chance to have lunch with yesterday. Actually, a great pleasure as always. Will we be. Well, we be indulging in the fine dining around Lexington.
Will we be at McDonald’s race? 10 will tell the tale. J K how are we getting paid? So there’s a lot of horses. I think that you probably want to take a look at one that caught my attention is, is kind of, uh, is, is, uh, I don’t really know the best way to say it. It’s a forced angle. It’s like a reverse angle for me.
I never liked to play Ian Wilkes first off of the bench, just because I feel like he gets worse. He gives horses a race. He kind of eases them back into it. He doesn’t have them, it doesn’t send them over. They’re ready to, you know, for their best on their first off a break. If you look at coast Buster, Uh, the race at fairgrounds, uh, you know, in the slop, the horse wins by he’s, Betty’s five to one that day wins by two.
Now I’m getting him second off of a break, and I love the idea of getting a horse second off of a break that, that ran really well. First off of a break for a trainer that doesn’t do that very often. Ghostbusters one that I’m going to try to press build a lot of things around. There’s a lot of other obvious horses in here that you need to obviously consider British humor is one that I would, uh, I would consider, I think his last race at church over the last spring, uh, was pretty darn good, nice figure there.
Um, and then, uh, fuel the burn is another horse that you would probably want to consider. I’m going to be a little bit against private eyes who might take a little bit of money. Um, and, and, but, uh, coast, Buster’s gonna be the one I’m going to build most things around. Sean, what do you think. Actually really like a horse in this race and it’s fast talking for shouldn’t be gay.
He, I think he could be a nice young improving horse. That’s tactical drawn outside, and can basically make his own trip and pounce on the term. And there’s just not, there’s not a ton in here to beat in my opinion. I don’t think it’s a great race. So I’d rather take the improving young horse. That could make his own trip and that’s who I’m going to lay him down.
I’m probably gonna end up singling that horse in the fifth floor, bold stuff. And I like it. All right, gentlemen, that’s all the time we have on this inaugural voyage for the Keelan select players podcast. I want to thank Jonathan kitchen. I want to thank Sean Borman, going to be hearing a lot more from him.
Also want to thank Christina blacker for taking time out on her travel day, to talk to us about her expanded role at Keeneland, as well as this hashtag I am horse racing. We are going to be back sooner than, you know it. Go ahead. Subscribe to the, in the money players podcast feed. On iTunes. Follow me on Twitter at looms, boldly or JK at UT big hair.
And we’re going to get posts. We’re going to get links posted to all the shows and you can follow along. I’m Peter Thomas foreign Itau. May you win all your photos?
share your bottle with me. Hey everybody. Peter Thomas for Nitel back with you one last time, just to remind you about two things. One party Friday night in Lexington, after the races, 7:00 PM, approximately at bells, be there or be square also. If you use the promo code ITM 19, you can get some great promotions from Keelan select, including an opportunity to bet 300 and get 100.
And then again, to bet, 500 and get 50 back, two separate times over the course of the meet. Make sure to check it firstname.lastname@example.org and we will see you Friday night.
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