The Shipping Forecast – Del Mar & Churchill Downs – 8/13/22

Course: Del Mar

Race: Race 10

Horse: New York Dreams

Trainer/Jockey: Steve Knapp – Tiago Pereira

Breeding: 3-year-old gelding; Acclamation – Voom Voom (Bahamian Bounty)

Previously trained by Johnny Murtagh. A maiden after seven starts, New York Dreams has proved none too consistent in his career to date, hitting the board just once and finishing unplaced in his other starts. Disappointing when a 5/4 favourite three runs back, he ran poorly again next time out but bounced back to form last time out when upped in distance on decent going. He goes over a bit further ground here and there are mixed signals from his pedigree, while the visual impression is that he didn’t quite get home last time. This probably won’t be a strenuous test of stamina, but he still has that to prove. He gets Lasix here which should help him and his latest run was his best on ratings, so he has that going for him. If he can back up the last run we figure he can run to a Beyer of around 79, which would give him an excellent chance here, but with a couple of doubts about him it’s hard to predict that with confidence.

Course: Churchill Downs

Race: Race 5

Horse: Lily Pond

Trainer/Jockey: Aidan O’Brien – John Velazquez

Breeding: 3-year-old filly; Galileo – Alluringly (Fastnet Rock)

A winner of two of her five starts, Lily Pond burst onto the scene with an emphatic win on her debut at Dundalk. Connections wasted no time in getting her into Stakes races and she hit the board on her next two starts, both at Group 3 level, although she seemed not to stay the twelve furlong trip on the latter of those two starts having travelled up well. It was a bit surprising, then, that she was upped in distance to fourteen furlongs for her next start, and predictably she failed to get home again, her stamina clearly giving out again having moved up well. She was cut back to nine furlongs for the Kilboy Estate Stakes last time out and took full advantage, quickening up well from near the pace and seeing off the closers – the fourth gave the form a nice boost this Friday. Lily Pond had the run of the race there, and the favourite clearly bombed out, but she won with a little bit up her sleeve and likely has more to come after just five starts. She gets weight from the older horses here and we figure she can run to a 91 Beyer, which gives her a little bit to find. However, she has easily the most potential in the field, and could well fire a bigger number here. A likeable horse with a top trainer and excellent pedigree, she has a solid chance and shouldn’t be underestimated.

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