The Way I Drew It Up – Tampa 11/25/2020

Hello and welcome…. to the newly named writeups, “The Way I Drew It Up”.

This winter, I’m trying out something new and writing over at Tampa Bay Downs. I don’t have a cadence in my head or set number of races I’ll be looking at. As this is unsponsored (for the time being), we’re just going to have fun, learn a little, and make money. Also you’ll notice I have placed “Bet 0.5 Units” after morning lines – this is a good way to show my opinion/confidence and will be used to track ROI down the road. Remember to always gamble responsibly.

To wrap up Woodbine, we made 179 picks with 20% winning top selections and a -2.6% ROI based on a $2WP bet ($716 wagered, ~$18 lost). Overall, huge success for the year! 

Now onto the show…. 

Race 5: 8.5f (T) Clm $16k

With so much speed drawn to the inside and outside, my eye is on a grinding type of horse in the middle of the pack.

  • Best Value: #6 Cant Trump Kitten (4-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Each and every start gets better and better under the new hands of Diane Morici. Got a nice little freshening for a few months and comes back today after a good looking recent workout. My big question is with this horses middle move. At GP continues to get left spinning wheels while rounding the far turn, trying to make up ground as the jockey pumps. My theory is that track plays too tight and Tampa should play a bit more forgiving with a bit less DIRF and more closer friendly TURF.
    • Trip Note – 9/20/20: stalked 2w again, tried making move around turn wide, made no progress having to go 5w, very flat effort overall until late. against pace flow. lugging fixed
    • Trip Note – 7/30/20: much more speed 2nd start for trainer but rated all the way back in the BS, made subtle move halfway through BS, swung wide for bold bid and made ground late. Jockey leaning all the way over to keep from lugging again, problem solved! Against Pace
    • Trip Note – 7/3/2020: 1T pushed 5w almost clipping heels, 2w BS, against pace flow and started run into far turn, tired out but fought through lugging issues down the lane.
  • Next Best: #3 Afterburner (6-1) Potts and connections clearly wanted to race this on the turf a few more times as 3 out of the 9 events were washed off the turf, so I’m not too concerned with the lack of “turf” on the pp lines in 2020. When this one did take to the turf, was able to get things worked out well and close. Did get slightly flattered by the rail ride on 7/27, so I’m still holding judgement if this one is the goods.
  • Curious: #2 Skippy’s Strike (9/2) I’m not sure I want to back a horse at CBY and MNR who can’t get the job done in small fields but by wiring the field. The figures stand up to the rest in this field but I seriously question those figures and the par. If this one outperforms, stalks the  pace on the rail and closes well, we know we need to consider these types.

 

Race 6: Clm $8k n2L 6f

I think you have to go with the logical based on the last race. I want to be live in blinded pools to this top pick but can’t trust any horse in race 4.

  • Most Logical: #3 Nice of Me (3-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Gets the inside draw and drops in class out of open company. Last event was trying to make a massive move against the pace flow and couldn’t catch the leader (34-1) that wouldn’t give in. Looking at the head-on you can see how much mud this one takes from stalking the pace. TimeForm US has these coded as neutral. If this one gets away cleanly, an easy stalk and close job here today – hopefully with less mud. Strong works on 10/25 suggest they don’t want to lose this one without some purse money.
  • Fade Contender: #4 Wicked Strong Alex (9/2) Drops in here from Delta Downs and don’t like the form. Yes runs competitive Beyers, but those figures are being earned by talking paces with neutral fractions (i.e. not having to work hard in the middle stages to keep pace) or earned them in maiden events. Today will face adversity and am viewing this one as a take-out reducer. Off the board for me.

Race 7: Alw $16k 5f (T)

Fun event with three clear favorites.

  • Best Value: #2 Wild Embrace (12-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Graduates into a non-winners ranks so waters get deep quick in terms of competition here. Has proven to get the lead drawing wide, so could easily grab the lead and rail with the inside post draw. Two back tended to red coded TimeForm US pace figures and faded late but was hand ridden once past by an 8/5 shot, saving the horse for the next event (which she won). Value line is 8-1 as this is the only one I see on paper easily grabbing the lead and still have upside left.
  • Most Logical: #5 Bustin Hearts (7/2) Trainer is 20% first after claim. This horse already has figures that are pretty well above the rest of this bunch (low to mid 70’s vs. the rest just touching the 70 Beyer mark). Will be off the lead and sit right behind the #2 Wild Embrace. Value line is at 5/2 as chaos can happen and this one tends to disappoint at short prices.
  • Best Value: #10 Kanfu (12-1) Doesn’t need the lead and can get the job done. Pace should setup for this one to stalk or be on the front end wide (which isn’t a bad thing considering the speed and fade types may cause issues if you’re tucked down on the rail). Recent form has been on point and this 3 year old looks to be putting all the pieces together. Big question mark is the company kept and will that translate down here at Tampa. Value line is at 10-1.

 

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