The Way I Drew It Up – Tampa 12/12/20

Race 3: Marion County Florida Stakes $100k 7f

Fun stakes event with some old faces.

  • Most Logical: #7 Jackson (3-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Pace should fit this one perfectly to stalk but still be in the first flight of horses. Third off the layoff and the strong work pattern (notably 11/1 work) should have this one ready to fire best. Leading rider Gallardo gets the mount. Value line stands at 3-1.

Race 5: Mdn $10k 7f

Many have faced each other in this bunch, so we’ll look for a replay angle.

  • Most Logical: #10 Ricky Run (6-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Last out showed a good jump in Beyer figures. Was the only one to be gaining ground late and can’t determine if that was due to a pace collapse or this one really did take a step forward in performance. Today finally gets a wide draw where gate trouble will be minimized. With minimal pace signed on today, should sit a stalked trip off the first flight and swing wide late. Let’s just hope not 8 wide like two trips ago.
    • Trip Note 11/28/20: Smashed hard out of gate and steadied for first few jumps, settled of pace, only one gaining ground late, wrapped up final few jumps not catching leader.
    • Trip Note 10/24/20: settled 3w into turn and gave up rail, shoved 8w exiting turn, grinded home but nothing left
  • Next Best: #11 Wild Enough (8-1) Shot up the rail in the last effort, so the trip was flattered when comparing to the wide effort #10 Ricky Run had to endure for his trip. However, has all the right to run faster with second start off a layoff and Lasix.
  • Exotic Use: #4 Rose for a Saint (30-1) Simply skimming the pp’s shows there’s been a few decent runnings up in Monmouth. Could easily see this one stalking on the rail with an easy trip and clunking up for a piece of the minor placings.

Race 6: Clm $5k n2y ~8f

What looks to be a race with a price.

  • Best Value: #6 Ned Devine (8-1 & 1.0 unit bet) Ran a great one last out off the long layoff, traveled wide a closed into neutral fractions and chased down the leader. Today should get a similar setup with a decent amount of speed signed on. Has won 5 races out of 10 over the Tampa surface, so I’m confident this one can get the job done. Value line stands at 6-1.
  • Exotic Use: #4 Bad Student (15-1) First time for new trainer who fires at almost 20% with new runners. In past has run at higher class levels and similar distances. Figures on those events were much higher than the rest of this bunch, but those were earned over a year ago. Will this 9 year old have any of those moves left?

Race 7: FTBOA City of Ocala Florida Sire Stakes $100k 7f

Will the tricky 7f setup for a closer or a horse loose on the lead?

  • Most Logical: #5 Heiressall (5/2 & bet 1.5 units at 9/5 or higher) Overall figures stand up well against this bunch. In recent races tended hot paces and closed well at this distance. Today should get a similar trip and may go wire to wire. Top jockey, second off layoff, winner over the distance.
  • Best Value: #9 Ceci Valentina (8-1). Since the layoff, the two starts have flops but have excuses: slop and outclassed. Today gets a perfect setup drawing wide with speed inside. The tricky 7f distance will help this one’s chances close late.

Race 8: Clm $16k 8f (T)

Pace makes this race and is full of speed everywhere.

  • Most Logical: #2 D’Craziness (3-1 & bet 1.0 units) Last out looked to need that race. Has put up some very impressive races in past and the trainer wins at a 23% clip 2nd off the bench. This sets up perfectly for double R’s horse to sit the rail trip and close into this race.
    • Trip Note: 11/25/20: well positioned entering far turn, rail, few lengths back, no urging, was asked at top of lane and finished good 3rd
  • Next Best: #4 Glad Rock (5/2) Class and figures are very competitive but don’t love this one will be on or near the pace that projects to unfold. Centeno has been riding a bit cold so don’t trust to judge this pace.

Race 9: OC $32k 8f (T)

Another race with plenty of pace signed on.

  • Next Best: #10 Crown and Sugar (3-1 & bet 2.0 units at anything over 5/2 value line) Very simple approach: best speed, top jockey should time ride perfectly, third off layoff, wins half of races at Tampa, highest figures.
  • Most Logical: #4 Lucky Jingle (4-1) Last out was on the slop and crossing a line through that effort. Two back showed a tremendous move around the far turn against the pace flow with some classy horses. Today gets the firm surface and plenty of pace to run into. I trust Graham Motion to have this turfer ready to fire. Value line is firm at 4-1.
    • Trip Note: 10/3/20 settled in back of pack, began wide move entering far turn, could not catch leaders as too far back and only one gaining ground late.

Leave a Reply

Further reading

Link to PTF’s Lecomte Preview

Link to PTF’s Lecomte Preview

OK so this post is a bit of a cheat. It’s bad internet hygiene – did you know there was such a thing as good internet hygiene? – to publish a piece...

Shift your Pick-5 into Overdrive

The popularity of the Pick-5 has risen dramatically in recent years for many reasons. The wagering menu at most major tracks now includes Pick-5s...

Best of ITM 2020

As 2020 comes to a close – thank goodness – we thought we’d curate some of our best evergreen content from the past year or so. ...