The Way I Drew It Up – Tampa 12/2/2020

Race 3: OC$12k 6.5f

Hoping a jockey change can wake up our perpetual bad trip horse. Always fun digging deep into race flows and trips of a horse that as a muddy form.

  • Best Value: #3 Legacy Azteca (7/2 & bet 1.5 units at 3-1 or higher) The overall figures don’t look great but what grabbed my eye was the overall record at Tampa winning 3 out of 8 events. Today runs into a much easier bunch with limited pace and a better post draw. Has been facing horrendous trip trouble by being drawn wide, getting checked early, and against pace flows. The pace sets up for this one to sit on the rail and stalking the two inside horses. The Jockey change should help freshen up the trip as the past 4 races have been wide stalk jobs against the pace flow. Value line is 3-1.
    • Trip Note: 7/11/20 wide stalking, couldn’t gain ground late. Outmatched and didn’t have normal “A-game”
    • Trip Note: 5/16/20 bothered at the start, made early move 8 wide into turn, gave up 1/16 out and jockey wrapped up, non-finish effort.
    • Trip Note: 4/22/20 used pretty hard to gain position but only succeeded to get got this one forwardly placed and wide, made early move to try and chase down 8/5 favorite, wrapped up 1/16th out again, non-finish effort
    • Trip Note: 3/28/20 checked out of race in the first 100 yds (won’t show up on PPs), pushed wide again and made good move but no pace to run into, against flow and 4w around turn.
  • Next Best: #4 Kalu (5-1) Last out was very much against the pace flow. Two back got a brilliant ride along the rail. Overall figures look to be best of this bunch. I envision this one getting to the front and dueling with the two inside horses, setting up perfectly our top choice. Value line is 5-1.

Race 5: Mdn $25k 8f (T)

Murky event but we think we find a little price.

  • Best Value: #8 Flatlander (8-1 & bet 0.25 units) Almost a year since last start but showed a very nice middle move to try and make up ground. Was very much against the pace flow. The couple strong works (11/9 and 10/9) should figure to have this one ready to roll. The clear favorite today will be traveling fast and should setup for a stalking trip.
  • Next Best: #9 Georgia Pines (5-1) Hoping this one gets more forwardly placed as the first two attempts were way to far back early. If can sit closer to this pack, should be able to really get a good jump on the front pack.

Race 6: Clm $8k 6f

Massive field of n3L’s and we’re not over complicating things

  • Most Logical: #2 Weld (5-1 & bet 0.5 unit at 5-1 or higher) Guarantees to get a decent ground saving trip. Best early speed and recent strong work should play well. The glaring 0-8 at Tampa has us thinking the Delaware Park figures could be overinflated so we’ll need to see 5-1 or higher for this to be value.
  • Next Best: #5 Magical Tale (5-1) Trip note for the last running for this one could prove useful when won at 34-1. Might have finally found the right surface and class level. Occasionally you’ll see the “dirt ouch’ies” when a horse runs on dirt for the first time and does great, but then realizes the surface is much harder on them than turf so they are hesitant to push as hard. No science to back up this pseudo “bounce theory” so we’re waiting to see.
    • Trip Note: 10/3/20 dueled with favorite and carried on, pretty impressive.

Race 7: Mdn $21k 8f (T)

Pace makes this race and with all the speed signed on that winner is likely to come off the pace.

  • Most Logical: #3 Gaelic Gold (7/2 & bet 0.5 unit) East coaster ships down south and faces an easier group today. The glaring pace collapse in the last event should yield some value as punters may dismiss that effort as being “flattered”. However, this race today has speed drawn everywhere and should setup perfectly for a stalk and closer type. The inside draw should help Camacho save ground and tip out late. Value line is 3-1.
  • Best Value: #8 In Moderation (8-1) Kept very fast fractions on debut to fade down the lane. Today gets Lasix and another bullet workout to help the cause. Value line is 8-1.
  • Beatable Favorite: #10 Gaelic Tales (5/2) Gets a wide post and will have to use early speed to gain position in the front pack. Over and over has gotten favorable setups and can’t get the win at short prices. This bunch will be the easiest faced but still don’t like that the “killer” instinct hasn’t been seen yet.

Race 8: OC $12k 7f

Muddy race with no clear shape.

  • Most Logical: #4 Mizzen Air (3-1 & bet 0.25 units) Clear speed and coming off a solid performance figure wise. The margin of victory is bound to draw some money, so the value will likely not be there. Value line is 2-1.
  • Next Best: #5 Busting Hearts (5-1) Last out ran evenly in the turf sprint event for first off the claim. For such a high percentage trainer on 2nd off claim, it’s interesting he chose dirt and a quick turnaround. You don’t hit a 24% 2nd off the layoff by accident.

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