The Way I Drew It Up – Tampa 12/30/2020

Check back later in the day as more late picks may be posted. 

Race 1: Mdn $25k 7f

Handful of repeat contenders here after facing Witsel; a monster horse who blew their doors off so badly the jockey aboard Witsel started petting the horse at the 16th pole (cool moment, really). 

  • Most Logical: #1 Estilo Varonil (4-1 & bet 1.0 unit): Was not bet on debut but like the middle move we saw. Trainer is firing well with 40%+ of the entries hitting the board. Trip note below and the jockey upgrade has us setting the value line at 3-1.
    • Trip note 12/9/2020: broke well-ish, bumped and had to check and had to turn facing the rail, stalked pace that favored speed.
  • Next Best: #6 Thrown for a Loupe (5/2) Was very underwhelming last out while tending the pace, but is going to be on the lead and will be finishing well. Don’t leave off horizontals.
    • Trip Note 12/9/2020: broke well, shoved along to stalk 2w in turn, nothing left and no excuses other than ran into a freak at the distance.
    • Trip Note 11/15/2020: bumped for 3 starts at jump then pinched at start, settled 1/16 out of gate, started pulling and can’t stalk, made a move into turn, against pace flow, gained ground, bad trip, more left here.

Race 2: Clm $10k 6f

A rare exacta play here as these two are the clear standouts with no speeds. Value for exacta plays need to be 12-1 or greater and will lean in order of preference. 

  • Most Logical: #1 Mulberry (7/2 & bet 2.0 units) Leading rider gets aboard this speedster in a race where we see zero pace. The cut back is perfect to help this ones stamina and looks to be training quite well over the Tampa track. Trainer is 29% going routes to sprints with a $2.96 ROI so we have confidence this cut back will yield positive results. Value line is 5/2 as not 100% certain about the figures earned at the other tracks.
  • Next Best: #3 Bustin Heads (9/2) Will be using in horizontals as will be off the hip of the leaders and get first run tipping for home. Thought the last race at 7f was a bit too long while tending the pace. This one should see a better trip at the shorter distance.
    • Trip note 12/2/2020 rated back to stalk pace, moved 2w on turn and quickened well but couldn’t chase down loose leader. Hard to see on replay but looked to be wrapped up last few 100 yds
  • Beatable: #4 Princess Livia (5/2) Will be bet down based on the trainer stat of 23% wins going turf to dirt, however, don’t love this one needs a pace setup and the overall body of Beyer figures are on par if not below our favorites.

Race 3: Clm $5k n2Y 8.5f

Only need two in this event where some may be spreading. Could easily see a scenario of playing a win bet on the “best value” and then playing a straight exacta with the “logical” over the “best value” (e.g. Discreet Heat over Painters Pride) to yield an overall value of wager at 3-1. 

  • Best Value: #1 Painters Pride (8-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Last out was outmatched in open company, today gets back into the n2y class with a huge trip note two back. With the speed and fade types entered today, should ensure a solid trip. Value line is 5-1 as still needs to work out a trip.
    • Trip note 11/28/20: Worst trip: bothered at the start causing the jockey to have to sit down (lost iron?) and settled well behind pack, stalked along BS & made move into contention widest of all, around turn pushed issue and grinded home to be beaten a nose, against pace.
  • Most Logical: #5 Discreet Heat (5/2) Will get first run at the front runners who look all to be drawn inside. The last two outings have been well outclassed by two horses I respect very much around these levels: General Paddy and Indimaaj: both mid 80 Beyer runners.

Race 4: OC $16k n1x ~8f

Lone speed horse on top. Single in horizontals.

  • Most Logical: #5 Baby I’m Perfect (3-1 & bet 2.0 units) Went on a suicide mission last out dueling with a longshot on the front end by 6-8 lengths while the aforementioned Indimaaj sat and waited to cease the opportunity of the tired horse. Today gets almost no pace pressure and should be able to dictate terms. Trainer is 25% second off, so feel this one will be even more fit. Value line is at evens.

Race 5: Mdn $22k 8f (T)

All money will be on the Chad Brown firster which may be justified.

  • Most Logical: #5 One Fast Orb (3-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Continues to fail at short prices and today we feel confident this one will right the ship. Trainer is on en feugo, winning with 6 of his 17 runners at the meet. Expect this one to break on top and hold the late rush of the Chad Brown entry.
    • Trip Note 9/12/20: Ran on well in front pack but was so against the pace flow the jockey stopped riding even before the 8th pole.
  • Consideration: #3 Federalist Papers (5/2) Connections win 6 out of 14 runners at this track. Leading jockey gets aboard. Won’t be leaving off horizontals.
  • Consideration: #6 Ravir (7/2) Another trainer that excels on debut at the greater than a mile distance. Works look good and well bred. Leave of horizontals at own risk.

Race 6: Clm $8k n3L ~8f

Plenty of speed here that should setup well.

  • Best Value: #5 Swagsational (10-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Has been facing much tougher in the past few starts. Natural closer should work out a perfect pocket trip with the inner speeds going away quickly from the gate. Value line is at 10-1.
  • Next Best: #6 Cpl. Dionicio (8-1) Trip note has us back this one after not firing last out.
    • Trip Note 11/25/2020: tried to duel with the two best horses and got burned up, non-finish effort yet was keeping on terms with the closers. upgrade performance.
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