The Way I Drew It Up – Tampa 12/5/2020

Race 3 The Inaugural Stakes $100k 6f

One clear standout.

  • Most Logical: #2 Arrest Me Red (5/2 & bet 2.0 units at 3/2 or over) Every start continues to jump up in the Beyer figure department. The last event pp’s are wrong and allude to a bad trip but got a fairly favorable one. The high hammer lock hold gives me impressions there’s more left in the tank for this one. Two back went a distance too far and tended a hot pace. Three back was all professional against a weaker bunch. Trainer is 42% ($2.87 ROI with n=27) when going turf to dirt at Tampa – thanks DRF Formulator. Workouts continue to look strong. First time dirt today so we’ll need to see at least 3/2, but the trainer has all my confidence.
    • Trip Note: 11/6/20 pp’s notes are entirely wrong, stalked pace, tugged with a high hammer lock hold (horse looked strong), then waiting for hole to open up at top of lane. No sight of “trouble” that the pp’s allude. Showed great courage and killer instinct.
    • Trip Note: 10/4/20 against the pace flow for the first call whereas the eventual winners relaxed and settled in the first jumps out of the gate, set very hot fractions early stalking the pace, got the rail ride but flattened out. Too far?
    • Trip Note: 8/27/20 broke sharp, stalked wide the pace, horse did all the work and jockey only gave a couple cracks of the whip/steering adjustments. very professional late.
  • Best Value: #4 Thealligatorhunter (10-1) Last out was able to run against the pace flow up at Hawthorne and looked strong doing it. Two back I draw a line through that effort over the slop. On debut three back got the job done but had the favorable pace flow. Today gets the stalking spot on the outside and could pick up pieces late.

Race 6 Mdn $21k 8.5f (T)

Another short priced horse and very price dependent

  • Most Logical: #1 Domaine Express (2-1 & 2.0 unit bet at evens) Just cross a line through the last event being outmatched by Fluffy Socks and looked ineffective swimming through the deep turf at PIM. Debut looked like a great foundation: tended a decent pace, split horses down the lane (shows maturity) and quickened. Was just a bit short and couldn’t keep on terms with Editor at Large (good type who competed in Breeders Cup). This group today is pretty easy and the good post draw should yield an ground saving trip. Value line is around evens.
  • Next Best: #7 Reina Del Sol (7/2) Mott runner who will get second start off the layoff after a lackluster try that has an excuse due to the yielding surface. Debut disappointed at a very short price at Saratoga tended a slow pace with a dream trip. But all things considered, the figures earned are higher than most of this bunch. Would imagine another step forward second off the bench for Mott.

Race 8: Mdn $21k 8f (T)

Open event with no clear favorites.

  • Best Value: #1 Van (8-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Gets back to the right surface after a failed attempt on dirt. The debut was sneaky good (see trip note below). If takes a step forward could best this bunch stalking the limited pace signed on today.
    • Trip Note 10/4/20 stalked wide and made long sustained bid against pace flow, on wrong lead until 1/16 and lugged in hard once flipped (based on head on ). Jockey could use all of horse due to this green-ness. Ready to see this one out again.
  • Beatable Favorite: #5 Habitus (3-1 but guessing will be bet down to 2-1) Has the class and respectable figures but hasn’t shown an ability to improve. Sure, the KD effort was a step forward in the figure department, but that track is so unique I can’t trust figures out of the track. The ceiling seemed to have been met with this 2 year old. When handicapping two year olds, I’m looking for horses who can step forward and haven’t plateaued. At the price, we’re passing.

Race 8: The Sand Piper 6f 

Pace scenario looks a bit hot with several horses pushing hot paces in their last starts.

  • Update Most Logical: #10 Gulf Coast (7/2 & bet 1.5 units at 3-1 or over if we don’t get the value, 0.5 unit on #2 Little Nesso) After replays, was very impressed with the debut and how patiently ridden this one was. Trainer is only 10% first time starters, so I’m impressed this one won so handily and confidently. Today gets the second start and is firing at 19% (n=101). Might be better at longer distances as was finding best strides late.
      • (update) Trip Note: broke well, stalked pace 2L off pace of two dueling, patient ride even at the 1/8 pole, few cracks of the whip got this one accelerating and finding best strides last and blew past. Massive gallop out. 
  • (demoted to second choice) Best Value: #2 Little Nesso (12-1 & Bet  Last out was horribly impressive: lugging all over the place but made up the most ground running late and never set down to a drive due to the lugging issues. Every start keeps stepping forward in terms of the Beyer department. Strong recent work shows this one will be ready to roll off the bench in this stakes event.
      • (update) Trip Note: 7/30/20 Breaks alert and on top first few jumps out with next few jumps being rated hard to let a rabbit take over and avoid pace duel. Settles 2w, horse pulls into the race 2w to contend with leader around turn, turns away foes. Trainer knew this one was loaded. 
  • Next Best (update) Most Logical: #5 Feeling Mischief (9/2) Tended to the hot pace going the 6.5 at Keeneland. Today gets half a furlong less and no pace drawn inside. Top jockey gets the nod and should ensure clean trip. Va
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