Race 1: Mdn $10k 8.5f
Wide open event with the top two running 36 times and still searching for the winners cicle. I’ll take chances on a bomb.
- Best Value/A: #3 Garnett (10-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Last out was outclassed and never in contention from the time they entered the first turn. Two back, after a massive layoff, found great strides late. Today gets the longer distance that should flatter this one’s style and 8-1 or higher feels like a fair price.
- Trip Note: 3/5/21 back early, never picked up feet, nonfinish
- Trip Note: 2/14/21 slow out of the gate, finally caught stride late, against the pace flow but still making up decent ground. longer distance should flatter
- Next Best/B: #7 Smart Solider (15-1) Was sent out on debut as a workout. Stalking the front leaders, wrapped up at top of the stretch. I can’t blame the trainer when rolling out a 5 year old for the first running, “let’s see how this goes, don’t hurt this one”. Get’s Lasix for the first time and could be competitive at a monster price.
Race 2: Clm $5k n2y 6f
So critical to watch replays as “off slow” is a heck of a lot different than my notes below on our top selection.
- Most Logical/A: #4 Tiz Approved (5/2 & bet 3.0 units) With minimal speed in this race and the natural ability for this one to establish position, this one seems too logical. Top rider and trainer win 36% of races sprinting on the dirt.
- Trip Note: 2/7/21 missed break by a mile (almost lost rider) rushed up on the outside to establish position, nothing left at top of stretch. Wrapped up final few jumps
- Best Value/B: #5 Twin Value (12-1) Has shown an ability to pass horses late. Many horses to the inside are the need the lead type, so a pace collapse is very possible. This one could get up in the numbers at a very nice price. The class levels this one has run at are a bit deeper waters. Timeform US figures are on par with the rest of the bunch.
Race 3: Clm $8k 6f
Tepid choice in here with murky pace and competitive bunch.
- Best Value/A: #4 Siesta Moon/A (12-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Might be the sneaky speed in here and just sit right in contention. Last out didn’t fire but two and three back ran winning races
- Next Best/A: #3 War Giant/A (5-1) Expect this one to be bet down from 5-1 and should be speedy. Recent two winning efforts have come from off the pace. This one projects to be near the pace early so should flatter this one’s ability
Race 4: Mdn $32k 8f (T)
Can the lone speed hold?
- Most Logical/A: #9 Barrel of Bliss (9/2 & bet 1.0 units) Last out had a bad trip and against the pace flow. Today I hope this one can settle on the lead and run on well. Has great natural speed but has been strangled in last few. Let this one roll!
- Next Best/A: #6 Goodbye Carolina (3-1) Trainer is no beuno returning off long-layoffs. But the debut race was a winning one with a subtle bad trip. Won’t leave off horizontals
Race 5: Mdn $10k 6f
Getting skinny in the horizontals here to finish off this pick five
- Next Best/A: #12 Meanasasnake (10-1 & bet 0.5 unit) What a variety of races this one has been in, but the lack of pace in here might let this one get clear. Last out couldn’t hold the sustained pace at 7f and the panel off today should help carry that speed.
- Trip Note 2/19/21: stumbled pretty bad out of gate, made move out of gate to establish position and clear lead, rebroke for a bit when passed but was spent. Doesn’t want 7f
- Most Logical/A: #2 Run Awesome Tiz (3-1) Draws the rail where this one should get clear. Has been getting caught wide trying to make moves. Today should be on the rail with minimal pace pressure.
Race 6: $16k n2L 8.5f (T)
Eye crossing race I don’t like at all. Looks like a spot to take a longshot but couldn’t come up with anything.
- Most Logical: #7 Extravagant Rosie (4-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Speed and second off the layoff should prove useful for this bunch. Has been running at slightly higher classes in 2020 so this might be an easy wire job.
- Next Best: #2 Claddagh’s Run (3-1) Gets an inside draw and speed on the outside. Should setup things nicely for this stalker/closer. Blinkers go on and Weaver is <10% first time on the turf with that equipment move.
Race 7: Clm $8k
Brutal race with no opinions. If had to make a horizontal would play A (3, 1, 4, 6, 8, 9, 11)
Race 8: $33k Handicap –
Great race with some heavy hitters and some new faces. Hoping Atone will stay above 3-1.
- Best Value: #2 Atone (7/2 & bet 2.0 units) Should get an absolute perfect trip near the lead and on the rail. If can find a whole will explode late. Last race favored speed so this one’s finish was very much dulled that day. Every start this one continues to get better and expect another step forward.
- Trip Notes: 12/27/20 stalked on the rail but exploded by, showed green-ness final 1/8
- Trip Note: 10/22/20 good natural speed, stalked hot pace, blown by mid-stretch by stakes horse. non-finish. At times didn’t travel over the surface in the backstretch as fluidly as we saw at AP.
- Trip Note: 9/11/20 dueled 2w earlier setting slow fractions and put in a massive middle fractions, geared down before 1/16 pole. traveled well over surface.
- Trip Note: 8/16/20 trouble everywhere
- Best Value/A: #9 Epic Dreamer (10-1) Last two races ran into absolute monster grade one horses and visually looked like this one needed a layoff. Today comes back gelded and the workout tab looks great. The only race over turf this one earned a 105 TimeForm US figure and that was without trying.
- Trip Notes: 1/10/21 epic courage by the jockey – stalked on the rail, made move before turn up rail, then tried to move outside of heavy favorite Misch Alex going 4-5w, put away easily.
- Trip Notes: 12/16/21 horse was never asked, restrained HARD and ran efficiently until FT, was let loose to run going 3w but never really asked beyond that. Kept on terms somewhat but not sure what happened. NF down entire lane.
- Fade/x: #3 Thread of Blue (5/2) Doesn’t want the mile but is a stepping stone. The class is hard to ignore but the 1 for 5 at the distance is easy to fade this one
Race 9: MC $16k 7f
Tough bunch of Maiden claimers
- Most Logical/A: #1 Van Khozan (4-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Gets the inside post after having drawn wide the last three races. Today will get a much easier go getting the cut back in distance and an inside cozy trip. Jockey upgrade will help as well.
- Next Best/A: #3 Naval Wave (9/2) Strong figures, barn change, lasix, pretty straight forward.
- Consideration/B: #2 Bodacious Blend (12-1) Outrunning odds in last two races, finds an inside trip could find the winners circle.
- Consideration/B: #4 Lady Chitu (12-1) First two races ran strong figures and then tried stretching out both on turf and dirt. Today gets Lasix for the first time and back to one turn.
- Consideration/B: #8 Pretty Priscilla (12-1) Another cut back candidate who might get to the lead. The form is muddy but this one projects near the lead and might just have a decent finish.
Race 10: Mdn $26k 8f (T)
Nice bunch with a bomb and a logical
- Most Logical/A: #7 Shifting Sands (2-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Obvious but interesting stat that Brant & Brown with a 180+ day layoff wins 33% (7 out of 21) with a $1.88 ROI. Even more interesting, 180+ day layoff for Chad Brown in MAIDEN ranks is 32% (n=60) with a $2.67 ROI. So bet this one.
- Best Value/A: #3 Well Told (12-1) Love this Godolphin runner trying the turf on second asking. The debut was truly impressive: closing into slow fractions sweeping wide. Only problem was a bit of green-ness down the lane. I expect this one to be fully cranked and get an easy W from a stalking position.
- Trip Note: 2/12/21: Way back early (8-10L), began move into turn 4-5w and gaining good ground, made the early move, showed green-ness down the lane ducking in 4-6 paths, jockey somewhat gave up as the lead horses had more left. Against the pace flow.
- Next Best/B: #2 Habitus (6-1) Tried closing into slow fractions out of last race. Comes back a gelding and should have more pace to run into. I like that this one is protected again.
