Race 7: Cup and Saucer Stakes 8.5 (EP Taylor Turf, one turn configuration)
Nice bunch with some good replay evidence to make a stand for a longer price.
- Best Value: #6 Download (12-1) Had an absolute horrible break last out and was left to spot the field several lengths. Was the only horse gaining ground late. The running two back looked sharp, broke best of all, carried good speed, and closed well. Top jockey Stein gets back aboard who already has ridden this one to victory. The body of figures looks good, continuously improving. Value line is around 6-1.
- Next Best: #8 Threefiftyesven (6-1) Has faced a few others in here today and finished behind them. Back on August 9th with #9 Dragon’s Brew, swung very wide and made the early move trying to get to the front as the entered the far turn. Dragon’s Brew was gifted with the subtle pace collapse and the victory. Figure-wise, this one continues to improve nicely each start. The sharp Sept 7th workout looks great, too.
- Beatable Favorite:#2 Credit River (5/2) The last race was an absolute pace collapse and is a great example of a horse racing with the flow. The farthest back runner finished first. The middle pack finished second and third. The early two leaders (short prices on the day) finished last. This one lands in the beatable favorite section as that running was flattered and has to try the stretch out to the one-turn 8.5f. We prefer others as the pace collapse won’t be as prominent today.
Race 8: Clm $15k 7.5 (inner turf, two turns)
All the speeds are drawn inside with some great closers drawn outside. Should be a fun race to watch the pace unfold and where moves are made.
- Best Value: #3 Tahana (8-1) Last out had plenty of excuses not to get the win. Tended the hot pace (with #2 Robusto), didn’t have a clear path, and was forced to give a non-finish. Where we will find some value with this one is that the running line, especially on TimeForm, gives the impression #2 Robusto and this one dueled on the front end and they both threw in the towel, tiring each other out, while the closers caught up. That holds true for #2 Robusto who had the clear running room unlike the #3 Tahana. Tahana had more left in the tank that day but couldn’t show it due to the trip. Today has plenty of speed drawn to the inside, will suck into a rail spot for the first turn. Let’s hope today can work out the trip at the top of the stretch. Value line is 6-1.
- Most Logical: #8 Silver Sheriff (5/2) Another stalker type who could easily turn the tables on #6 Spring Edition. Two back they faced off after the 8 month layoff; whereas, #6 Spring Edition was in peak running shape cycling up 3rd start off the layoff. Figures fit on paper.
- Next Best: #6 Spring Edition (5-1) Should get an absolute setup today with three speeds drawn to the inside, will likely sit wide in the second pack, and close well. Curious where Crawford will try to make the move: start pushing through the turn or wait to hit the gas as the top of the stretch. Value line is 6-1.
Race 9: MOC $25k 1 mile, 70yds (AW)
Many chances for these types, spread where you can. We’re sticking with a trainer who is 20% going from a sprint to route.
- Most Logical: #11 Cigarillo (10-1) Last out broke sharp but the jockey decided to take back and make one run. An odd decision considering the sprint distance. The tactic panned out not so great, but showed us this horse can pull herself nicely into a race. The wide draw today will ensure clear running and a similar tactic at the longer distance. Making up the great ground last out around the turns has us comfortable with the notion this one can pick off horses around the turn and then pass the leaders late down the lane. Figures continue to improve, jockey stays aboard after that weird tactic ride. 10-1 feels like a very square price.
- Next Best: #2 Glinda Good Witch (3-1) Was against the pace flow in the same race as our top choice. However, was not as compromised nor had to travel as far. Today could get stuck down on the inside with some speed and fade types that are drawn outside that may cause issues late. Figures continue to improve, jockey stays aboard, and trainer is 20% sprint to route.
Race 10: Alw 8.5f (AW)
Many expensive types in here that are still trying to find their way.
- Most Logical: #4 Crystal Glacier (12-1) $500k purchase for Live Oak get the 4th start of her career. Tended to an honest pace last out and was swallowed up late by some good horses (Witez finished 3rd in the Lake George). Each and every start continues to make 10+ TimeForm US figure jumps. Only a small step forward wins this one for Cassee. Without other speeds signed on inside, this one could get a cozy trip around and wire the field at a nice price.
- Next Best: #10 Coldwater (10-1) Last out ran a solid race against good horses, including Cambeliza who ran at Keeneland this week and finished a good second behind a future star in Eliade (Chad Brown trainee). Two races back, was way out of it, against the pace flow, and couldn’t settle. The figures on Tapeta will be a mystery, so we believe 10-1 is a good value line for this one.
- Exotic Use: #5 Niigon’s Spin (8-1) Wire to wire candidate who did best running early on Tapeta. Strong recent workout and a change back to the right surface, maybe wakes this one up? Price projects to drift to 12-1.
- Fade Contenders
- #3 March of Dreams (3-1) – is 6 years old and has only found the winners circle twice. Yes, closed into neutral fractions last out so gets a minor upgrade, but I can’t get past the 2 for 18 record. Figures are not that competitive so we’re leaving off tickets.
- #11 Heavenly Curlin (6-1) – facing winners for first time, don’t love figures, will have to step up big time.
- #12 Day Dayenu (7/2) – March of Dreams ran the better race last time, see above. Ceiling on figures seems to have stalled out around mid-70’s number. Can win but price will too short.
