Woodbine 10/11/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 8: OC$40k 6.5 (T)

Limited speed in this event, so I’m looking to take advantage of this at a price. 

  • Best Value: #1 Better Boogie (8-1) Has run very well against our 2nd choice 3 races ago. Should get a ground saving trip and be near the lead, considering there’s limited speed signed on today. Dismissing the last effort in Elgin Stakes, the overall body of work for this three year old stands up to this rest. Sharp workouts might show signs there’s more left in term so upside. Value line is 5-1.
  • Most Logical: #4 Four Aces High (6-1) Had a horrible trip last out being sent 2 wide, bothered throughout the stretch, and never found clear running room. Today hopes to change that narrative of that race two back against three others running in here today. Only speed today should help out. Value line stands around 5-1.
  • Exotic Use: #2 Detroit Steel (20-1) Last two starts were with wide draws and the trips reflected that. Today finally gets the draw inside. We can only hope for a pace collapse and this 1 for 37 lifer to get another notch in the win column. Last out was well overmatched and the tote-board reflected that at 40-1.

Race 9: Durham Cup Stakes G3 8.5 (AW)

Competitive edition with a clear pace setup in my head.

  • Most Logical: #1 Skywire (5/2) The race sets up very nicely for this likely even money favorite. The two speeds in Inventing Blame and Salute with Honor should clear and give good pace for Skywire to run into. The TimeForm figures at the distance and on the Tapeta stand 10 points higher than the rest of this bunch. Last out faced a very tough bunch on the turf that setup for closers, so we’re easily crossing a line through that race.
  • Next Best: #4 Pioneer Man (8-1) Needs to step forward today in terms of figures but cycles up for peak performance, 3rd off the layoff. Has decent speed in the early parts of the race and should sit off the hip of our top choice.
  • Beatable Favorite: #7 Armistice Day (2-1) Tapeta figures are a bit light compared to the rest of this bunch. The wide draw and the pace setup will likely yield a wide trip around Woodbine. Losing ground on those wide turns has been pretty bad to sustained runner types. Don’t be surprised to see one long sustained bid on the outside to only flatten out. Value line stands at 4-1.

Race 10: OC $40k 7.5f (T – 2 turn configuration)

Speed drawn in this race so we’re looking for a stalker or closer to come off the pace.

  • Most Logical: #9 Gun Society (3-1) Last two races tried to win against the pace flow. Three back ran into the good horse Rideforthecause and wasn’t getting by. The wide draw should help keep a clear trip. There’s speed drawn everywhere in this race and should create a nice pace to run into. Has run well over the inner turf course well in past, so that’s an upgrade in our book.
  • Best Value: November Fog (20-1) Scratched out of a tough allowance event yesterday and gets the softer spot today. Last out I was a fan of this one. Results were lackluster with no excuses; however, the strong work tab still suggests this one has upside. Maybe the turf try will wake this one up. Here’s our comments from last event on 9/13, “has a great muddy form that we like to see when searching for value plays. Last out tried to tangle with the top fillies in the Woodbine Oaks, which makes sense. Ending the 2019 season, this horse was putting up competitive figures against the likes of Curlin’s Voyage. Two back was against the race flow, setting hot fractions and hanging around late as all closers moved up. Today should get to the front easily enough and sustain the pace with the sprint distance.”

Race 11: MOC $25k ~8f (AW)

Many chances for these two year olds

  • Best Value: #7 Milbou Secret (12-1) Widest of all in last event, being pushed 7-8 wide at the top of the stretch. Long sustained bid that started into the turn and grinded down the lane. I like seeing a horse finish well and pass not just tiring horses. Looked to be against the pace flow that day, too.
  • Next Best: #5 Kosmonavt (4-1) Never had a chance to run down the lane in the last event. Should step forward in terms of figures for 2nd start. Stein stays aboard and will try to avoid the same chaos of being stuck down on the rail coming through the lane.
  • Consideration: #9 Ga Ga Gizmo (7/2) Last out the jockey tried making three moves with the last move almost being a huge disaster. Got the benefit of the rail to aide in those moves to get into contention. Today we think it’s likely that the rail won’t be gifted again. Continues to improve every start.

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