Woodbine 10/17/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 9: OC $62k 8.5f (T – one turn)

  • Best Value: #5 Marwoods War (8-1) Two back had a terrible break, almost unseating the rider. From there went two wide into the backstretch followed by a rail ride to gain ground late. Was way too far back late and the jockey realized that, given a hand ride/workout down the lane to earn a good 4th. Last out got the job done at a nice 14-1 price without trouble. Trainer is 22% winners next out with a $2.98 ROI (n=64). The tactical speed shown running mid sectionals on TimeForm in the low 90’s when breaking cleanly will only help chances and avoid the “clutter” of horses in this race. If you’re worried about the earlier races in this year, the 6/13 event was against much tougher while coming off a layoff of 7 months, while the 7/5 event was a good 3rd.
  • Most Logical: #6 Above All Names (5/2) Has been running in last three events against stakes company with the likes of Rideforthecause. Even though the trainer is ice cold at 1-40, the company today is a notch well below this bunch.

Race 10: Alw $101k 6f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #1 Spanish Ballerina (2-1) Had to be pushed hard out of the gate to establish position from the far post draw on the day. Faded late down the lane as a result of that in our estimation. Today gets the inside draw and should be a loose leader. Value line stands around 4/5 as we see no one who will be able to gain the lead nor put pressure on this one.
  • Best Value: #9 Hai Bobby (12-1) Last out had a bad trip being stuck behind a wall of 7 horses while going wide – best strides found late. We don’t forecast a ton of speed, but the wide draw could set things up nicely for Hernandez in the event there is a pace collapse. Plenty of upside left for this 3 year old making her forth start in 2020.

Race 11: OC $40k 6f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #7 Ennis the Menace (3-1) Hitting the board in all starts except one, this hard tryer should get a perfect stalking trip with all the speed drawn to the inside. Considering the first career start was on Tapeta running a career best Beyer of 83 according to DRF Formulator, the 6f on the Tapeta should yield improvement moving from turf to the Tapeta. Value line stands around 2-1.
  • Best Value: #3 Lookingatamiracle (10-1) Finds much better waters today. Last out faced graded stakes company, tending a hot pace in the 140’s based on TimeForm’s early section. Today this one should stalk the two speeds drawn inside and close on well. Value line at 8-1 as this one will need to still work out a trip and prove has the ability mentally to still win.

Race 12: MOC $40k 8f (T – inner turf, two turn)

Any of these two year olds could jump up and get the win.

  • Most Logical: #5 Hadley (3-1) Gets a big class relief from last event trying to tangle last out with some very classy horses, including Mrs. Frankel. That event was run way too fast for this one to stay in contention. Today should get a much better trip and still be in touch with the field late.
  • Next Best: #3 Mitzi (8-1) Was against the pace flow being near the lead with a pace that collapsed in the last event. Also, this one had to travel wide. With the better post draw today, could get a better trip. Continues to train on very well.
  • Considerations: #10 El Valor (20-1) Last out couldn’t make the winning move with the winner (the eventual winner was in the back of the pack with El Valor, where the winner made a sweeping move to close). There’s more left in the tank as the training log looks good.

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