Woodbine 10/25/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 8: Wonder Where Stakes 10f (T)

Unclear pace with a lone speed runner.

  • Best Value: #1 She’s a Dream (15-1) Continues to improve in each of the turf starts this season and is primed for a career best performance. The last start was a good one. The thing that caught my eye was they way she ran at the end of the race, extending and exploding past the wire, even after being wrapped up. Today will get to show the same running style: hugging the rail, stalking the speeds, and find best strides late to grind home. Josie Carroll has high hopes for this one, entering 4 stakes events out of 5 starts in the two year old campaign. Value line stands around 8-1.
  • Most Logical: #10 Forty Zip (8-1) Shipper from New York is the clear speed in today’s event. Emma Jayne picks up the mount. This one could break cleanly, get away, and never look back.
  • Exotic Use: #8 Ballroom of Mars (20-1) Yet to find the winners circle. But the first two races of this one’s career on turf looked good and on par with this bunch today. Last couple races has been compromised being forced to go wide and against the pace flow. Has been training lights out and the return to turf could wake this one back up again.

Race 9: MOC $25k 6f (AW)

Wide open event with many considerations. Spread race for us to find value.

  • Top Consideration: #2 Reckless Redhead (20-1) Had to break very wide in the last effort. Traveled wider than needed exiting the turn on the inner, clearly didn’t like those tight turns on the inner turf. Today gets the wider turns on the Tapeta, so should have a much easier time navigating the turns.
  • Best Value: #11 Sparkisha (20-1) Last race hopped at the start and blew the break by 3 lengths. Jockey had to make a very early move to get into contention. Was very much against the pace flow once back in touch with the field around the turn. Today should get a better chance to settle and stalk the pace.
  • Consideration: #1 Nice Company (12-1) Funky running last out, almost clipping heels with another around the far turn. Finished well in that debut effort. Gets a better post draw today that should yield a better trip.
  • Consideration: #8 Leave It With Me (10-1) Only one gaining ground late and navigated a wide trip. Most experienced out of this bunch and Tiller is winning at 21% on Tapeta.
  • Consideration: #4 Keyed Up (15-1) Gets the big class relief today. Last two races has never been able to keep up with the others. At 15-1 that feels like a good chance to take a flyer on a horse who has proven to be able to break well and training along in the mornings.

Race 10: MOC $48k 8.5f (AW)

Morning line top two favorites: 32 starts and zero wins, so we’re digging for value.

  • Most Logical: #12 Fifth Season (8-1) Two first races on Tapeta were in some deep waters with 3 year old graded stakes types (Belichick, Olliemyboy, Mighty Heart). The most recent attempts have been strong, closing into slow fractions and passing horses (a big skillset in today’s event as many in here don’t like to “pass horses”).
  • Best Value: #7 Birchmount Rd (15-1) Last out made a very nice looking move travelling wide but was against the pace flow trying to chase down a 3/5 shot. With the added distance and a little pace up front, that style of finish should work well here.
  • Next Best: #5 Our Uncle Drew (4-1) Solid figures overall and always tries hard in every event, hitting the board 4 times out of 4 events. I’m not excited to back a horse that has 21 tries with zero wins.

Race 11: Clm $10k 6f (AW)

The two logical speeds on the inside should give our top choice a perfect trip.

  • Best Value (Best Play): #1 Act of Bob (10-1) Last race was a VERY interesting ride. Tended to a hot pace and pushed wide around the Tapeta. Coming down the lane, while in contention, was only given a hand ride to finish a good third. Was a clear prep through and through. Today comes out as a first time gelding, gets a great post draw, 2nd time off layoff, and class relief. Value line around 5-1.
  • Next Best: #8 Zoomer Music (20-1) Ran a great race last out. Was pushed wide and didn’t get good position, leading to the 4th place finish. Blinkers go on and this might be the goods to stalk and close late. Needs to work out a ground saving trip. Value line around 12-1.
  • Beatable Favorite: #12 Risetothechallenge (3-1) Going to have to make an early move to gain position from the far post. Plenty of pace pressure drawn inside will cause troubles for this one. Figures are a notch below the rest of our top choices.

 

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Further reading

Woodbine 11/14/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 8: South Ocean $100k 6.5f (AW) The 6.5f distance will be the key in endurance for the favorite. SCR Best Value: #8 Gizmo’s BFF (20-1) Last out...