As of writing on 10/2 assumes on Turf but cut in the ground
Race 8: Vice Regent Stakes 5f (inner Turf)
Lots of horses flip flopping on different surfaces and distances, making this a tough race to crack. Would not be surprised to see multiple horses at 3-1 as favoritism is going to be hard to find.
- Most Logical: #4 City Boy (3-1) Looks to be the favorite today. Cycling up as the 3rd start off the layoff. The previous two races were quite competitive compared to this bunch. Showed good speed last out and was never going to hold off Pink Lloyd. This horse’s figures are a few higher than this bunch. The 5f should play well to his speed.
- Best Value: #6 Souper Success (15-1) Last race was down on the inside where you didn’t want to be. Never had a chance to run a step down the lane – betting market might overreact to that bad trip. Today gets the wider draw which should help stay clear of trouble. The figures for this one are a bit light in the recent races, but last time going over this distance ran a career best. Value line stands strong at 12-1.
- Next Best: #1 Forester’s Turn (6-1) Was bit tardy coming out of the gate in the last outing. Today we’ll expect the sharp break based on repeated success breaking. The rail will play perfectly for Kimura to either take the lead or stalk as another horse expends too much energy to overtake and gain position. The distance and surface appears to fit.
Race 9: OC $15k 6.5f (T)
Eye crossing field that’s very competitive. Adding to the difficulty of this field, there’s no clear pace scenario. I’m providing a few thoughts as we have no strong opinions.
- Most Logical: #6 Dani’s Victory (3-1) Stalker has been running competitive races in last three events. Expect a wide sweeping move.
- Consideration: #1 Court Battle (12-1) Interesting cut-backer who also gets a bit of class relief. Has some speed but don’t know if enough to clear the field.
- Consideration: #9 Executive Sight (10-1) Twice has tried to close into blue fractions on TimeForm US and doing so well. Today should get a decent setup to make one wide run on the outside.
- Consideration: #8 Letthebighossroll (4-1) Yet another closer who will look to be sweeping wide late. Figures fit and Emma-Jayne help the chances.
Race 10: OC $62k 5.5f (AW)
A few speed and fades type that should setup a fast pace.
- Most Logical: #7Malibu Secret (7/2) Last out threw in the towel trying to press the pace against Pink Lloyd, so I’m drawing a line through that figure earned. The rest of the 2020 campaign has been impressive albeit not winning a race. The class kept in those previous races towers over this field. Expect a stalking run style today but closer to the front pack. Value line stands around 2-1.
- Best Value: #9 Reconfigure (15-1) Two back showed us this goods, closing into slow fractions at a short distance. The wide draw and the speed on the inside should setup well. Tiller is a sharp trainer and should have this one ready to fire. Value line stands around 8-1.
Race 11: 8f (T) Clm 7.5k 8f (T – inner)
Another tough, big field to try and handicap but we think we found a nice longshot here.
- Best Value: #6 R U Watchingbud (20-1) Great muddy form for this 8 year old. Has hit the board in 50% of starts, so you know is going to run hard. What sparked my attention was the other two tries over this inner turf. Both races run were strong with plenty to like – closing into slow fractions, trouble trips, finished well. Today’s inside speed horses should clear the way to let this one sit in the second pack and try to work out a trip. Value line stands around 8-1.
- Most Logical: #11 Street Legal (6-1) Has run very competitive races against a few others in this bunch. The wide draw doesn’t have me excited as there’s a good potential for ground loss.
