Woodbine 11/1/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 8: Coronation Futurity $250k 9f (AW)

Great deep dive into some of these runners with trip notes and a dead closer against a pace flow last out.

  • Most Logical: 8 Stephen (7/2) Last out was a bit farther back tipping for home than ideal. You can see the jockey hesitantly have to bully his way off the rail through to the 3 path as they exit the turn. If that move was made 2 or 3 jumps earlier, this one wins every time against who likely will be the favorite. Value line sits at 5/2.
  • Next Best: #5 British Royalty (6-1) Debuted very professionally and ran against the pace flow. This one looked special in that debut. We’ll see if this one makes another closing run and can make the step up. Value line sits at 4-1. Keep an eye on how Curlin’s Catch runs on Saturday at Woodbine for clues on the legitimacy of this one.
  • Fading: #2 Tio Magico (3-1) Has speed and I have plenty of trip notes… but the green-ness of this one down the lanes and inability to effectively switch leads has me off this one. Today will get some pace pressure from these respectable 2 year olds and doubt can hold off that late assault. Value line sits at 6-1.
    • Trip Note: 10/4/2020 Bullied way through squeezed early then powered into position lead and rail by self, lead entire way around, wouldn’t change leads and jockey stupidly went right hand whip while shifting weight (dangerous). very green
    • Trip Note: 9/7/2020 Bumped HARD at start, std 2x and almost fell, big kick back (clots on rail), hated it, once got free, widest off all, long sustained bid, against race flow, upgrade BIG

 

Race 9: Clm $10k 8.5f (AW)

Our top two choices have hit the board 70% of the time after 50+ races at Woodbine.

  • Most Logical: #6 Florida Won (8/5) Gets class relief and the perfect distance for this one’s stalking style. Three back against others in here made a move too late and put up a non-finish effort to finish a good second. Two back the distance was too short around the two turns on the inner (favors speed). Last out faced much tougher on turf. Today gets the right surface, the right distance, and class level. The jockey change should help the cause. Will likely have to travel wide to work out a clean trip, but this one appears much the best and can overcome that. Value line is 2-1.
  • Next Best: #2 Where’s the Widget (3-1) What a fun replay to watch from the last out. Rating the horse was the winning move, granted against much lighter company. Two back faced a bit tougher and closed into neutral TimeForm US fractions, so there’s some talent here. This 8 year old hits the board 70% of the time out of 33 runnings at Woodbine. Don’t leave off horizontals.

 

Race 10: OC40k 6.5f (AW)

Many of these in here and we’ve seen their act before.

  • Most Logical: #7 Have a Souper Day (8-1) Two back had a bad trip: broke poorly, rushed up with pack, caught a breather, patiently ridden out of turn, made move and hole was closed. Last out the distance felt too short for this 3 year old who likes to stalk. Today will get the prefect distance at 6.5f and just needs to workout a trip. Value line is around 4-1 as anything can happen in these wide open OC $40k events.
  • Next Best: #11 Henry’s Gizmo (15-1) First time gelding after romping over at Finger Lakes. Has to step forward in terms of ability but trainer and jockey are very savvy: over past year they have won 29% together over 31 starts.
  • Hunch Play: #6 Detroit Steel (20-1) I’m a homer and a wingnut, so guess I can’t resist rooting on this 1 for 38’er over the lifetime.

Race 11: MOC 6f (AW)

Simple approach with two standouts.

  • Most Logical: #1 All Inclusive (6-1) Gets the rail, class drop, speed, limited pace pressure, figures tower over field early, middle and late in race. Simple approach and no need to go to the tape. Value line at evens.
  • Next Best: #9 Windchill Zar (5/2) big class relief today and has been tending hot paces in last few events. Should be all to sit off our top choice and might make late move?

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Further reading

Japan Racing Recap

Rob Reid Jr and I recap last weekends two big dirt races in Japan.
Will we see La Perouse or Cafe Pharoah in the US soon?  We discuss that and more!