Race 7: Maple Leaf Stakes G3 10f (AW) – tough race with plenty of question marks on the tote, lot of “plotter” types
- Most Logical: #5 La Lune (8-1) Going for third start in North America that should prove more useful than the last race: tending a hot pace and the pace collapsed around the horse. Two back we’ll make that race as the foundation to builds on for the North America season. Grinder style front runner will look to fend them off late.
- Next Best: #10 Lake Lucerne (6-1) Tough post to overcome but with the plotting and slow pace up front, this runner won’t have trouble finding track position as they travel the entire length of the stretch out of the gate for the first time. The tactical speed of this runner is the best in this bunch and should be able to get near the leading stalking early. Fair value is 4-1.
Race 8: The Bessarabian Stakes G2 7f (AW)
- Long Shot: #8 Emmeline (20-1) Big bomb price that will go overlooked in the betting. Has been forced to run at the two turn configures and I love the cut back here. The maiden breaker (last out) and the 2021 debut race were over this distance and both came back with strong figures. This three year old is ready to step forward and what better time than at the end of the season in a stakes race. Best of speed (maybe…?) and just gets sent loose. Fair value is 10-1 and is not the most likely but we’re willing to take a shot.
- Best Value: #5 Aug lutes (8-1) Returning back from the quick stint to NYRA, this runner has great promise. Last out was smashed out of gate, made two moves and got the win (although fractions were red, the replay shows this was not a setup for this runner). Continues to improve in each start and should sit the perfect stalking ride. Gallardo is familiar with this one and gets back aboard
- Fade: #7 Our Secret Agent (2-1) Everyone will gravitate toward the class level this one has run at compared to the others in this event. My knock on this horse is lacking of adversity faced and the light figures going the 7f distance. This runner is an inbetweener without a significant quicken and will hit the frame but isn’t a likely winner in my book. If some of the TimeForm US figures were not all coded blue where this runner led, I would be backing.
Race 9: OC 9f (AW) – Cold Singled
- Most Logical: #5 Antigone (2-1) Let’s get the name right, ant-ig-o’knee (joke for listeners of the show). Too short last out and couldn’t keep up with the early pace that is required in those 7f events. Two back chased a loose leader. Today the pace projects neutral and should help the chances of this stalking runner. Kimura gets aboard and will give this runner all the chances. Drexler is 23% with first time in the barn, helping our confidence with this long 9f event. Fair value at evens. I like the double into the next race.
Race 10: Clm $10k 6.5f (AW)
- Most Logical: #10 Seau (3-1) With speed drawn inside, many of which look to be speed and fade, this runner will sit wide and make a move as they turn for home to grind past. Overall best class and ability figures. The wide post doesn’t have me worried with the long run into that first turn. Kimura will park 2w right off the pace and stay in touch with the field, avoiding traffic troubles. Value line is 2-1.
- Best Value: #2 Blockbuster (8-1) Of the speeds, this runner will have the easiest go of things. I’m not thrilled about the cold trainer win percentage at the meet and the TimeForm US figures being 3-5 points lighter than the 95ish I’m looking for this bunch. Either way, pace makes the race and this race should fit like a glove drawn on the inside.
- Defensive Use: #8 Crafty Conquest (5/2) Hate this price but think this runner is a tough one to figure out. Could either get loose and run them off their feet with the back class or simply speed and fade after a duel with our top choice. I don’t love the idea of this runner sitting off horses and trying to pass late considering the glaring lack of “passing ability” in the PP’s.
Race 11: Clm $5k N2L 6f (AW) – could get in a lot of directions, but will get stuck into a few here.
- Strong A+/Logical: #7 Elite Prince (4-1) Love this runner in this spot, unexposed form, sharp workouts, pace drawn inside, and will stalk the bunch wide without traffic trouble
- Strong A+/Logical: #1 Humble Beginnings (15-1) Last out winner came back to back up the form and win, so we’ll excuse that last effort off the layoff and the slow pace. Today should get plenty of pace to run at and figures aren’t out of the question with this bunch.
- Logical: #2 Linda Loves Lace (6-1) Drops to the lowest level today and removes blinkers. Would imagine will be the center of attention for the other jockeys as this runner looks very dangerous if gets out on the front end like she did on June 12th
- Logical: #9 Musically Inclined (8-1) Figures fit and are trending the right direction. Young three year old has strong morning tab and could continue to step forward
- Long Shot: #4 Machisma (20-1) Slight cut back and has an ability to get loose. Will use a bit in rolling horizontal bets
