Woodbine 11/14/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 8: Autumn Stakes 8.5f (AW) – whenever Primo Touch is involved, watch out!

  • Most Logical: #4 Sir Winston (9/5) Last race was all but a win. Overcame some adversity along the backstretch getting shuffled and then demolished when trying to quicken down the stretch. The pace looks honest and should setup well for this runner. Value line is set to even money.
  • Best Value: #2 Vanzzy (10-1) Doesn’t have the flashy back-class as some of these other runners. But this one is still on the improve. Overall figures fit with this bunch and will have a tactical advantage other some of the other early speeds in here having a strong finish. Four year old is still unexposed and has every right to take another step forward to upset this apple cart.

Race 9: Alw 5.5f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #9 Lake Shore Drive (5/2) Fastest horse, should stalk going wide, close down loose leaders late. Last out race was must stronger competition so we’ll upgrade that decent effort chasing the pace.
  • Next Best: #3 Threefiftyseven (6-1) Two back tended that hot pace with Lake Shore Drive, last out ran all but a winning race only to fade in the final yards. Figures fit.
  • Best Value: #1 Electronic (20-1) Off the long layoff comes in here with the best speed. Could easily get loose down on the rail only having one option in this short event. Back class and figures fit this bunch and the layoff performance builds a foundation.

Race 10: Clm $15k 8.5f (AW) – wide open event

  • Most Logical: #7 Battle of Yorkton (3-1) Should sit a decent trip and have the pace setup. Looks to have the best finish among the early responders in this bunch
  • Best Value: #9 Stop the Humbug (12-1) Was extremely wide and against the pace flow two back. Three back did the same thing, wide and against the pace flow. This horse has decent potential but isn’t getting the rides that allow for high percentage wins, very reliant on pace. The fair value feel like 15-1 and we’ll likely see that price.
  • Next Best: #4 Fifth Season (4-1) Will get the inside stalking trip again with what looks to be a hot pace.
  • Longshot: #1 Download (10-1) Another strong closer that PTF likes in here and I don’t mind taking a bit as well.

Race 11: Mdn

  • Most Logical: #2 In All Alone (4-1) Speed and taking a half panel off. Drop in class helps. Not over thinking it.

Wagering Strategy for $100

  • R8 – I’m trying to work most of the day around Sir Winston and ensure if he wins, I win on the day
    • Win $50 #4 Sir Winston (if drops below evens, we’ll shift the money to the pick four)
    • P4: 4 w 9,3,1 w 7,9,4,1 w 2 = $1 ($12 total)
    • P4: 4 w 9,3 w 7,4 w 2 = $1 ($4 total)
    • P4: 4 w 9 w 7,4 w 2= $2 ($4 total)
  • R9: Win $15 #9 Lake Shore Drive
  • R11: Win $15 #2 In All Alone (2-1 or higher)

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