Race 8: South Ocean $100k 6.5f (AW)
The 6.5f distance will be the key in endurance for the favorite.
- SCR Best Value:
#8 Gizmo’s BFF (20-1)Last out jockey rated this one hard to drop way back and make one run. Result was against the pace flow and closed to finish a miraculous third. Today with the added distance and switch back to a winner surface should suit nicely. Today hope gets a better ride stalking the pace and 4-6 lengths off the leaders.
- UPDATE Most Logical: #3 Dejas Too (4-1) On debut ran a good race traveling wide and tending the hot pace. In the final 1/16th was finding best strides. Last out showed a great closing, grinding style in a big full field to win. Expect this one to get better with the added distance and the inside post draw.
- Exotic Use: #10 Silent Sparkle (20-1) The change in performance based on replays is amazing from debut to most recent. Second out (most recent) showed great gate speed, got to the lead, relaxed, and finished well. Today will be tested and needs to show can relax sitting behind the speeds in this race while extending late down the lane. Value line around 12-1.
- Beatable Favorite: #6 Sunspite (8/5) Has been getting easy leads in short races, expect this one to see more pressure and get tired late.
Race 9: Clm $25k 6f (AW)
Two speeds on the inside should prove a nice setup for the stalkers outside.
- Most Logical: #3 Sure Would Forest (10-1) Got up easily and confidently against the pace flow while losing ground in the last event. Two back the trip can be excused as ran into a bit of trouble and the jockey gave a non-finish effort as the rest of that bunch had this one outclass. Today should tuck right onto the rail and stalk the speeds drawn to the inside. The class level fits and pace couldn’t be better. 6-1 is where the value line stands.
- Best Value: #7 Be Vewy Vewy Quiet (12-1): Winner last out was able to figure things out to get the win. Showed great speed and closed on well. What will drive value today is the past WO attempts that were lackluster. Two important things to take-away from those efforts. First being those distances were too long. The barn decided to do some retooling and come back to the shorter distances. The other point being this horse can stalk (see two back). Today should get the right setup being tucked in behind the two inside horses and kick clear. Value line is 8-1 and we should get all of that based on the “poor finishes” over the Tapeta.
- Consideration: #9 Hitters Park (3-1) Will be using defensively in horizontals as this one likes to close into sprint distances less than 6f, but fades at 6f or greater. Typically the longer the distance, the easier to close so perplexed on this horse’s results. Figures, post, and running style fit.
Race 10: Alw 6.5f (AW)
Many in here are flattered by good trips in previous events. Trying to stay narrow.
- Most Logical: #1 Pink Scribbles (6-1) Overcame neutral pace fractions to close well and get the win. Three back on the Tapeta had a terrible stretch drive getting blocked three or four times. Today gets the rail, speed to the outside, and just needs a little racing luck to work out a trip when they tip for home. Value line is 3-1.
- Best Value: #2 Monastery Lane (10-1) Ran competitive figures over the surface, especially when considering the September 11th running where she handled Super Patriot (4-1) easily. The trainer is a good 27% moving from turf to Tapeta and this is where we think this horse wants to run. The jockey change should help give this horse a rail ride, stalk these outside speeds, and make a nice move. Value line is at 8-1 as a trip still needs to unfold.
Race 11: Clm $5k 7f (AW)
Head scratcher of a race and only using two. I would not fault anyone for hitting the “all” button if you’re dead set on playing in horizontals.
- Most Logical: #4 Tackle the North (8-1) Has shown an ability to grind on the front end against the pace flow and finish well. Today will get that ultimate test stretching out to 7f without much pace to pressure. The inside draw should help things for this one.
- Next Best: #6 Dad’s Missy (8-1) Last three races have either been too short or on the wrong surfaces. Four back was able to get the right distance and put a good run together.