Woodbine 11/22/2020 – Coatney Review

With racing up in the air for the next 30 days at Woodbine, I wanted to extend an overdue thanks to all the readers. You make this show/blog/commentary so much fun to do. As horseplayers we’re never done learning. This year I learned more than ever because of your contributions and interactions – for that, I am grateful to you all.

In case I don’t get another chance in 2020 to write this sign-off, as a man with a podcast once said, “may you win all your photos“.

Race 1: OC $40k 6f (AW)

Interesting bunch that should offer some value

  • Most Logical: #1 Trading Bay (3-1) If breaks cleanly should have a easy trip, speed on rail, right distance.
  • Note: #5 Mrs. Del (15-1) scratched out of yesterday’s race to enter here. I’m still not sure why as this spot looks tough for this one to get the win. I would expect this one goes off at 6-1 or 8-1

 Race 5: Mdn 6.5f (AW)

Fun bunch with many approaches to this race, we’re going for a price.

  • Best Value: #3 Perfect Crime (8-1) Last out made a huge move around the second turn but was against the pace flow and the eventual winners were already lengths ahead and saving ground. Two back was pushed wide into the first turn. Made a move on the backstretch to establish position on the front end. Around the turn traveled wide and grinded home, only for British Royalty to pick up the pieces late and close into that pace meltdown. Today gets a much better distance, will be forward but stalking, and should have enough left in the tank to close well. Value line at 3-1.
  • Fade Contender: #4 Lenny K (2-1) Last out couldn’t put foe away due to lead change issues. Overall figures are not much better than the rest of this bunch.

 Race 9: Clm $5k 8.5 (AW)

Straight forward approach in this low level claiming event

  • Best Value: #13 King and His Court (20-1) Love this long shot here with Emma-Jayne getting the mount up. Last out was too short of a distance as this horse has a lower cruising speed than those sprinters, resulting in an against the pace scenario. Today should have plenty of speed drawn to the inside. The slight class drop should flatter this one.  Value line stands at 15-1.
  • Most Logical: #9 Forester’s Destiny (3-1) Has enough tactical speed out of the gate to gain early position and stalk the pace. Drops to this low level and should be able to grind out the win.

 Race 10: Grey Stakes 8.5f (AW)

Strange race where we assume one of the Unwelling horses will scratch considering Stein is named on both. Neither of these horses get me excited due to “green-ness” and favorable trips.

  • Best Value: #2 British Royalty (12-1) Love this horse and the price we’ll get. We have a SNEAKY replay angle that I doubt will get picked up. In last the event, was running along well stalking the pack. BUT at 4:50:00 timestamp something changed the head carriage. Looking at the head-on, what appears to be a horseshoe hits this one in the head (disclaimer: I have no idea if it’s a horseshoe. I’m thankful the horse is ok. You make your replay judgement). This created the rank-ness that we saw entering the first turn, forcing the jockey to settle way back and off the pace. Amazingly enough, this horse looms up early trying to close the gap into the far turn but too little too late, the pace scenario was too much to overcome. This one will stalk the pace and make a big move late down the lane. Value line stands at 5-1.
  • Next Best: #1 Haddassah (4-1) Strong forward pace figures, showed grit first out grinding past a foe late in the lane. Should continue to get better.
  • Beatable #3 Stephen (7/2) Late race was won by passing the leader, eventual second place finisher, late in the lane as the foe horse couldn’t figure out the lead changes. Today won’t get gifted an easy pass like that with the likes of Haddassah or Helium.
    • Trip Notes (11/1) Last out was a bit farther back tipping for home than ideal. You can see the jockey hesitantly have to bully his way off the rail through to the 3 path as they exit the turn. If that move was made 2 or 3 jumps earlier, this one wins every time against who likely will be the favorite. Value line sits at 5/2.
    • Trip Notes (10/4) Clean break, maybe tad slow, got great position on rail stalking 4-5 lengths back, hesitant move late into turn to move 3 paths, by that time, leader was loose, grinded home but could be flattered by green-ness of eventual winner.

Race 11: Mazarine G3 8.5 (AW)

Tough bunch and taking anything less than 3-1 seems like bad value.

  • Best Value: #4 Batyah (6-1) Graham Motion knows how to ship into Woodbine, winning at 25%. Last out faced Aunt Pearl (made the ITM team a believer, helping JK and Marshall get the gold in the BCBC) and was trying to close against the pace flow and catch the champion horse. Two back (debut) closed into slow-ish fractions against the pace flow and grinded home a winner. This class level fits prefect, the post draw is perfect, and the pace is projected to set this one up perfectly.
  • Next Best: #6 Designer Ready (5-1) Won in style last out flying late, yet was favored by the pace flow. With a better start out of the gate on the day (last out was left well behind in the gate) could have a chance to compete. Value line is 5-1.

Race 12: OC $40k 6f (AW)

Paceless race with many chances.

  • Best Value: #10 Have A Souper Day (15-1) Has been knocking on the door and just needs a trip. I’m still holding out hope there’s upside left based on the trip note from 9/6, “Broke slow, rushed up, rail, patient, made move at right time, hole closed, non-finish”.
  • Most Logical: #5 Mr Cool (8-1) Zero speed drawn inside might be able to get loose. Value line is around 8-1.
  • Fade Candidate: #12 Executive Search (3-1) The wide draw in sprints is a recipe for disaster. Doesn’t have enough speed to clear and is bound to be stuck wide. Value line is 8-1.

Race 13: Clm $5k 8.5f (AW)

These $5k’s are so tough, tread lightly and good spot to take a chance.

  • Most Logical: #8 Prinz of Violence (4-1): Pace play with all the speed drawn inside and the outside draw.
  • Next Best: #10 Denmark (3-1): Last out had a wide trip and closed well. Today should get a little better of a trip with speed inside.
  • Next Best: #3 Society Misfit (6-1) Enough speed and likes to pass horses. In these events that’s enough to like.
  • Consideration: #1 Silent Empire (20-1) Speed of race and gets easy lead?

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Further reading

Woodbine 11/14/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 8: South Ocean $100k 6.5f (AW) The 6.5f distance will be the key in endurance for the favorite. SCR Best Value: #8 Gizmo’s BFF (20-1) Last out...