Race 6: Alw 8.5f (T – one turn)
You have to think long and hard if you want to back a one for 11 horse that is likely to be 2-1 or less (#3 Succeeedandsurpass). There is zero pace in this race, and I think that doesn’t play well for this logical runner (#3).
- Best Value: #12 Bexar (20-1) Finds the right class level today and has tried to set crazy paces in last two outings. Today should get a much easier pace and the one turn event should help if having to sit wide. Has been working out well. Value line stands at 10-1.
- Next Best: #8 Tecumseh’s War (4-1) Early career was on turf and posted strong numbers that project upward for today’s class level. 3 out of the 5 latest races were on the triple crown trail and very much out gunned. Should get a stalking setup and Emma-Jayne does a great job timing her trips and saving ground.
- Don’t Trust: #3 Succeedandsurpass (3-1) Has been caught in a merry-go-round race in the last two outings, but faced much tougher. Two back tried to chase down the loose leader Proven Strategies, a recent stakes winner here at Woodbine. However, the inability to win at the n1x level out West has me really pausing. My hope is this one gets over bet down to 9/5 or lower.
Race 7: MOC $40k 8.5f (AW)
Looking for some value in this maiden event.
- Best Value: #11 Ms Wicked (10-1) Way overmatched in the last outing. Two back got a very nice stalking trip near the hot pace. The added distance today should help flatter that performance two back, letting this horse make one run and grind home in deep stretch.
- Next Best: #13 Outkickthecoverage (10-1) If this one can draw in, this is a nice price that should go overlooked. Last out finished dead last and couldn’t keep up with the speed on the dirt. With the added distance and the second off the layoff trainer stat per DRF Formulator (27% 2nd start route race with sample size of 75 starts). Value line at 15-1.
- Most Logical: #5 Out of Romance (5/2) Very professional on debut. Stalked pace, traveled wide, switched leads at the top of the lane. Gets second start and a favorable post draw.
Race 8: Mdn 8.5f (T – two turns)
The pace looks honest in this two turn turf event for maidens. Looking to spot a stalker right off the pace.
- Most Logical: #6 Dr. Green (8-1) Tried to make a move into a hot pace and was against the pace flow last out. Beyer figures over the inner turf recorded 3 back is the best in this bunch.
- Best Value: #4 Unbridled Tizzy (15-1) 3rd off layoff for Casse with this $250k price tag colt. Last out didn’t have the speed to stay in touch with the field. Today should get a much easier pace scenario to stalk.
Race 9: Clm $15k 5.5 (AW)
Speed signed on everywhere in this sprint event.
- Most Logical: #11 Roches Point (10-1) The lone closer in this event should be able to sit off this pace that looks to unfold. Last Fall posted good numbers over the Tapeta so gives me confidence to back at any price over 8-1.
- Next Best: #2 Asha Ironborn (4-1) Has shown good speed in the last two races and might get the best of trips being down on the rail. The cutback in distance should only help.
Race 10: Clm $25k 8f (T – two turn)
Strong opinion for us with a perfect pace setup.
- Most Logical: #8 Lord Wimborne (3-1) Last two events has been desperately against the pace flow. Today should get a better pace to run into with the outside speeds drawn. Has already shown to handle the tighter turns while closing over the inner course. Value line is 2-1.
- Next Best #7 English Classic (9/2) Looking back at the inner races in 2019 give confidence this horse should be in the mix late. Only big question mark is the big cut back from the marathon distances back to a two turn mile where more speed will need to be carried around the turns to keep up. Value line is 6-1.
Race 11: Clm $10k 8.5f (AW)
Night cap with a good value play.
- Best Value: #8 Spring Edition (8-1) Slight drop in class and changes surfaces where best figures have been recorded. Should be near the front pack and have enough left in the tank to kick home based on past TimeForm US figures.
- Next Best: #2 Truly Elite (10-1) Pace looks to be strong and this one will get a perfect trip to stalk, save ground, and tip out late to pass many of the speed and fade types.
