Race 11: Valedictory Stakes (G3) 12f (AW) – a rare sight to see the mile o’ half over the AW at Woodbine and looks to be a match race between the two at the top of the market.
- Top Pick: #11 Sir Winston (5/2) Last out got the worst of it: wide, against the slow pace, and no breaks the entire way. With all of that adversity, this horse still finishes a very close second. I like that Husband’s gets aboard to change things up. I would imagine he will pilot a nice trip. Fair value for this runner is at 2-1. I’m nervous this runner will be bet below 2-1, so will be trying to lock up value in horizontals.
- Longshot: #2 Win d’Oro (12-1) Trending in the right direction. Splashed with a big figure while running against the pace flow last out. Hard to knock and will be a big test today. The inside draw helps keep the trip easy.
Race 12: Clm $40k 8.5f (AW) – wide open event with some nice prices
- Best Value: #11 Teacher’s Pet (10-1) Young four year old had been hot and cold this year. The start five back has my attention. Raced over the two turns and was able to beat out a horse like November Fog (winner of a stakes race on Saturday). In today’s event needs to find a bit of race luck to work out the trip, but the talent is still there for this upside type of a horse. Fair value is 10-1.
- Most Logical: #9 Faraway Kitten (3-1) Runner has found the calling over the all-weather since shipping up a few years ago to Woodbine. The barn has been hot this meet and I think this runner will keep that run going. Without too much speed in this event, this horse should project near the lead and be able to work out a nice trip. Fair value is 3-1.
- Consideration: #4 Duke of Carthania (6-1) Runner could be anything going over the all-weather. Casse excels with these moves at 20% from turf to the all-weather.
- Consideration: #10 Proliferate (4-1) Has proven ability to run over the all-weather, based on figures. Has had a nasty habit of stealing money by letting the public down at short prices, so very hard to trust or put on top.
Race 13: OC $40k 7f (AW)
- Most Logical: #9 Maximus Momentus (4-1) Scratched out of a Saturday event to race here. Should have enough tactical speed early to establish position and carry on. Couple trip notes below that help us build confidence. Price should hold or drift with wide draw and questionable class levels above. Fair value is 4-1.
- Trip Note: 11/9/21 against the flow, bad break to start, and then launched a fairly nice bid with a good trip. Bad break and maybe only a few points higher as was very against the pace flow
- Trip Note: 10/17/21 rank into the 1T back of pack, entering FT was blocked until 1/8 (winning move was made halfway through turn from back of pack) and then finally opened up a bit but still didn’t have clear sailing. Much the best but awful race luck.
- Next Best: #5 Master Spy (3-1) Could really be anything as a 3 year old. Looks to have potential with notching decent figures while having bad trips. Will use defensively on tickets, especially after that Nov 1st workout.
- Best Value: #1 US Army Corp (12-1) Has the best of speed and does best racing over the all-weather (albeit one start going two turns was a speed and fade job). Without too much pace, this cheap speed might be the real deal.
- Fading: #6 Princess Will (2-1) Might be over bet in here due to Casse/Hernandez and the flashy figures; however, this horse has a habit of not finishing. 7 seconds out of 17 starts. Will be fascinating to watch how far back Hernandez drops this runner back compared to #9 Maximus Momentus, as both are closer types.
Race 14: MC $15k 6f (AW) – what a wide open race. If #16 Gwen draws in, this outside speed will likely cause chaos. Spread if you can.
- Most Logical: #3 Cedar Valley (3-1) Drop in class, has the speed, and we’ll excuse that last effort
- Consideration: #1 Wilkabee Rush (12-1) Good trainer first time starter with strong workout tab
- Consideration: #4 Cousin Rob (20-1) Like the cut back and not insane if this runner steps forward in easy bunch today.
