Woodbine 12/4/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 8: Alw 6.5f (AW)

  • One-to-watch: #2 Striker (2-1) Debuted impressively to notch one of the higher debut-Beyers earned for a first out maiden at Woodbine. If this runner comes back and wins here, should be interesting to see where they point this runner. Fair value is 2-1 but doubt we’ll see 3/2.

Race 9: Steady Growth Stakes 8.5f (AW)

  • Top Pick: #1 Artie’s Storm (5/2) The last two starts have been darn impressive. Last out stalking that hot pace (albeit all horses were near that) while overcoming adversity to quicken by Secret Reserve in the two path. Two back had completely different tactics than the Lake Ontario (last race). Instead, sat well off the pace and launched a massive 5 wide sweeping move to try and get up. The pace was too slow early and the plan backfired but the run was impressive. Those two earned Beyer figures in the mid-82’s can easily become a high 80 Beyer if this horse runs more efficiently and/or gets a setup.  Value line for this horse is around 2/1.
  • Next Best: #11 Timeskip (10-1) Very hard to take a barn who has a record of 0 for 25 this meet, but alas we’re here. This runner has run into some tough competition in past starts this year. Finally gets to face an easier bunch, even if in stakes company. The trip sets up well to sit and stalk to the two inside speeds. Looking backwards at prior races, two and three back had zero pace to run into and the fourth start back ran into Sir Winston and Special Forces (grades stakes placed horses). If we can get 5-1 that feels like decent value in this spot.

Race 10: La Prevoyante Stakes will we see another Pink Lloyd still send off for Summer Sunday?

  • Best Value: #8 Silent Causeway (10-1) A bit fuzzy on the form but the start four back is a building block for this four year old to trend in the right direction. On paper it looks like this horse excels going long and two turns, so we’ll see if that theory holds up. The workout tabs looks sharp as ever and the logical horse in here has a few knocks. Fair value is around 6-1.
  • Most Logical: #4 November Fog (3-1) Is the best horse on paper to stalk the speed of Summer Sunday; however, I hesitate to put this runner on top. With the short run to the first turn, this one might find himself stuck on the rail the entire way around. If entering the far turn still on the rail it comes down to race luck if this horse finds a hole to run. I’m happy to take wagers on higher priced horses with this projected trip, but at the shorter odds spectrum I need to have a more clear vision of this trip. Fair value is around 3-1 but I suspect will be bet down below 2-1.
  • Fading: #7 Summer Sunday (8/5) Best of speed in here and might get loose, but the form can’t be trusted. The 2021 campaign has not been as strong as the 2020 or other years, according to the figures. The connections care very much about this horse. I can’t imagine they would take any chances on what looks to be a promising broodmare.

Race 11: Mdn 6.5f (AW)speeds drawn outside in a tough race

  • Top Pick: #4 Awesome Treat (5-1) Made a massive move last start that has my attention. The move was done way too early in the race but was visually impressive enough, especially as this runner hung on well through the lane. The horse is trending the right direction, the draw looks easy enough without too much speed inside, and if can conserve energy should be able to have a big move left at the top of the stretch. Fair value is 4-1.
  • Defensive Use: #7 Twister Alert (6-1) Very pace dependent and needs things to heat up. Overall figures fit and would not leave out.

Race 12: MC $7.5k 6f (AW)

  • Best Value: #3 Nice Company (20-1) Finds the right distance today? After going too fast too early at 7f, couldn’t sprint at the 5f after being smashed out of gate, and three back was way too long. With Emma-Jayne aboard, I think this could be an interesting price play here.
  • Considerations: #4 Classy Gizmo (4-1) Should have the early foot and her race to lose. Coming off that massive 2/5 loss is a bit scary, though
  • Considerations: #5 Jocker’s Run (7/2) Caught in a few merri-go-round paces and the class drop should help.

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