Woodbine 11/28/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 8: Mazarine Stakes G3 8.5f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #4 Kanta (3-1) Pressed the hot pace last out and finished well. Today’s race projects to be neutral pace and will help chances to stalk and repeat the last out effort. That tactical speed advantage will be the key to winning this race. The debut effort was a bit of a debacle, so we’re crossing a line through it.
  • Next Best: #1 Queen Judith (12-1) Comes in from Kentucky and gets Lasix for the first time. Last out effort was part of that epic pace collapse with California Angle being the benefactor. Needs to find a bit more early speed to improve chances of staying within striking distance. Figures are light but the try on all-weather and the change of scenery may wake this horse up.
  • Consideration: #3 Mrs. Barbara (9/2) Trending the right direction. Don’t love that this horse had to drop into maiden ranks to get the lone win out of 5 starts, but I’m chalking that up to the over confidence from connections this one could face winners early on in the campaign.
  • Against: #6 Moira (41) Dream rail ride and quickened at the right time in the race. Won’t get that luck this time around against this tougher bunch.

Race 9: Grey Stakes 8.5f (AW)

  • Most logical: #10 God of Love (5-1) Last out was stuck behind a terribly slow pace in a crowded race. Was then shuffled back around the far turn as the pace quickened, putting this runner even more behind the slow pace. Expect Casse to continue to step forward with this runner who has a nice late kick. Value line feels around 4-1 with all the race luck this one needs.
  • Next Best: #9 International (8-1) Ships in for LNJ across the pond for first start with Lasix. Got the first win over the all-weather over there, so I have to imagine they were looking for places closer to home that fit this runner’s ability.
  • Best Value: #1 Heat Merchant (20-1) With all the pace signed on here today, this late closer should have a good shot at hitting the board. The runner continues to step forward figure-wise. Blinkers come off and first time going two turns, so no reason this runner can’t make another step forward. The rail draw might help chances by saving ground the whole way around and tipping out late for home.

Race 10: Alw 9f (AW) – the obvious play is Emmeline, but has her 2021 campaign seen too many miles?

  • Most Likely: #4 Emmeline (2-1) Is the best figure horse but this horse has had a hell of a 2021 campaign and imagine it is time for a break. This group is the softest she will face and the lack of pace will help this runner’s chances.
  • Best Value: #3 Bequia (8-1) Is the long distance specialist of the bunch. Last out had a nice stalking 2-3 wide move and quickened into the slow pace. Needs a bit of racing luck but could see this one grinding down the lane with Emmeline.
  • Fading: #1 Sansa’s Vow (5/2) Carroll is only 2 for 14 with first time all-weather types, 4 years and older. Something tells me this runner never really wanted to run over the all-weather with the glaring lack of starts on the surface. Why start now and back at a short price?

Race 11: MOC $40k 5.5f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #8 Wood be Wild (5/2) Last out ran into a beast of a horse with Striker. Gets the drop in class and has early foot. I like the outside draw to avoid this one getting pinched on the rail with some speed and fade types. Value feels even money but would imagine will be bet to 2/5.

Race 12: Clm $10k 7f (AW)

  • Best Value: #7 Impressive Speed (6-1) The dreaded 14 post last out ended up in a wide trip. Two back was a bit advantaged by the hot pace up front but the class level was higher, so that race is a wash in terms of upgrade/downgrading ability figures. Today gets the jockey upgrade and should sit a much cozier trip in this murky bunch.
  • Most Logical: #10 Canola World (5/2) Nothing insightful here: best figures, has some quicken, drop in class.
  • Consideration: #2 Ante Up Alex (12-1) Has recorded some decent speed figures with nice finish. Gest the sneaky drop in class as we’ll considering the last route race a prep for this one due to the failed experiment. Trainer is 19% making the route to sprint move.
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