Woodbine 11/27/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 4: Clm N3L 8.5f (AW)

  • Best Value: #1 Souper Cohiba (7/2) Horrible trips for this runner in the last three races. Most notably the last race: 5-6 wide the entire time and caught sleeping on the back stretch losing position to be way against the pace flow by the time they entered the far turn. Today with the inside draw and the new jockey change, should get a much more advantaged ride. Speed drawn outside helps put pressure on other shorter priced horses who have a habit of hanging (see #9 Veloce’s last race). Fair value is around 3-1.

Race 8: Kennedy Road Stakes (G2) 6f (AW) – The ol’ boy is here for the last time. They have to let him win, right?

  • Best Value: #3 Tap It To Win (5-1) Has some of the best of back class. The trip sets up very stalking the pace and saving ground. Has the ability the to stay in touch and sit a few lengths off the speed. Fair value is 7/2 and we’ll likely get to see that price with the top of the market taking action.
  • Most Logical: #8 Souper Stonehenge (8/5) Best overall speed figures earned. Don’t love that this horse hasn’t faced too much adversity in the past few runnings. However, maybe the pace won’t heat and gets an easy wide run.
  • Wise-guy: #5 Pink Lloyd (5/2) Last race for the 9 year old who will bet set to win his 37th race! Great story and might be just gifted the win. Although I don’t think has the same ability as before, this angle might come into play.

Race 9: HCP $20k 7f (AW) – nothing exciting beyond the two top.

  • Best Value: #1 A little Voodoo (7/2) Trip note play for us here. Two back was a bit of a rabbit and the jockey put in a non-finish effort at the top of the stretch to still stay in touch. Last out faced some very good horses. Pace should be even and this runner will get the best of trips. The cut back should help sustain the run and leave plenty of run late.
  • Most Logical: #8 Antigone (5/2) Improving type that has an ability to stalk and make a move late. Figures fit but don’t trust the wide draw over our top choice.

Race 10: OC $62k 5.5f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #4 Hell n’ Wild (2-1) Simple approach with fastest figures. Minimal speed in here should allow this runner to stay in touch and make a wide move.

Race 11: Alw 8.5f (AW) – great betting race with the shortest price on the tote to be 3-1 or so. I’m searching for a rpice.

  • Best Value: #1 Finalist (12-1) Projects to have decent speed and the inside draw forces the hand of this runner a bit to send. Oddly has the best figures in the bunch and has the pace advantage, even though the ML doesn’t indicate that. Great trip note from 8/15/21 making two moves, dueling, then fading. This big priced four year old still has upside left in this murky bunch.
  • Next Best: #9 Holyfield (10-1) Last out had an absolute trip getting blocked the entire length of the stretch. Today gets a wide draw and should have a mild pace to run at. Blinkers are off and figures fit. 6-1 feels like a value.
  • Betting Against: #8 Milano (5/2) Liked this runner last out facing winners for the first time. But proved is not ready to take that step forward and graduate out of the “non-winners of two” ranks. Had clear running and an open lane to grind down the lane in that last race. However, the step up in class prevented this runner from passing horses late. The debut comment line of “flew by” might be simply a product of horses downlining very hard at the end. With these question marks in this horse’s finish, why take favoritism.

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