With the delayed start at Woodbine, I’m noticing every horse owns a stellar workout tab. In my estimation, trainers opened the taps a bit over the past 6 weeks to sharpen the horses while racing was off the table. If in normal times, these trainers would keep maintenance works up and allow races to sharpen the training. Long story short on this theory, don’t give too much extra credit to all these bullet workouts.
Plays of the day are Race 6 and 8.
Race 4: Mdn $123k 8f (T)
Great maiden event with many chances.
- Best Value: #5 Money Printer (10-1 & bet 0.5 unit at 8-1 or higher) If the name doesn’t give it away, eh? We had a bit of a trip on this one (against race flow and green-ness), but that race established a decent foundation. What has me excited to back this horse is just how confident the jockey was on this one turning for home before the green-ness showed (those pesky Tapits). Today should be a bit more grown up, stalk the pace, and close well. Carroll is 20% 1st time turf with a positive ROI. The connections are 4 for 7 with $3.81 ROI.
- Next Best: #9 Truffle King (4-1) Two good trip notes to help this one. Ran a bit inefficient in last (hard to see on replay but it looks like the head carriage was high, maybe due to new surface ran over). Today projects this one to be wide and stalking the field. With the one turn mile configuration, there will be plenty of time for Stein to sort things out to find this dynamic runner some position.
- Trip note: 11/20/20 stalked moving a bit inefficiently, waited along the rail patiently as move was timed perfectly, huge gallop out and just missed
- Trip note: 10/18/20 wind up move around the turn, moved too early, finished even terms, nice gallop out
- Fading Due to Price: #6 Small Talk (3-1) Continues to hang a bit and the form looks to be exposed. Sure has good pace figures but there’s too many question marks at what will likely be even shorter than 3-1 in this competitive field.
- Underneath Use: #1 Maximus Momentus (30-1) Made a great move in the last race traveling wide and blowing up the pace. Is gelded since we last saw him and gets to try turf for the first time. This one could stay in touch with the field, quicken a bit, but likely not catch any of the front runners with the pace setup projecting stalkers/speed to be favored.
Race 5: Clm $15k n2L 5f (T)
No real strong opinions here.
- Top Choice: #11 Yola (4-1 but expect price to drift lower, anything over 3-1 feels good) Trainer wins 35% off long layoffs going to the turf (n=17, ROI $3.82). Might have the best speed in this race. Looks to be running a touch to long in other events with the speed and fade/hanging. With the bit sharper distance and the wide draw, this horse should stay clear and avoid trouble. Decent bet feels around 4-1ish as I don’t give much more than a 20-25% chance of winning.
Race 6: Clm $25k 7f – good plays
With plenty of pace this could project to be a fun race with bomb prices. My top two ideas are below but would not fault anyone for using the all button.
- Top Choice: #2 Jojomar (8-1 & bet 2.0 units) The light bulb went off for this runner in the last (see trip note below). Each and every start continues to improve. With the long layoff and sharp works (I know, I said above don’t get excited about them but the exception here might be if the most recent work is a bullet). The inside draw should almost ensure a ground saving trip until tipping out late for home.
- Best Value: #8 Drone Swarm (20-1) Debut race was tepid but nothing horrendous. Two back trying to face a very tough bunch that produced competitive runners in stakes events. Last out SOMEHOW was able to win the race with running a 7 TimeForm US number in the early sectionals of the race! I have never seen this type of running line where a horse has dropped that far out of it to get the win without an epic pace melt down in front. The horse even ran 6w around the turn to get up, didn’t flatten and kept running. That race has produced three next out winners, too. Trainer is 30% of the 180+ day layoff with a positive $2.11 ROI.
Race 7: MOC 5.5f
Tough bunch with too many question marks.
- Most Logical: #9 Shakoo Makoo (3-1 & 0.5 unit bet) Ran great on debut while trying to chase down the loose leader at 1-2. Continued to close ground without much asking. Minimal pace in this race should help this favorite stay in touch and close well.
- Next Best: #7 Homelander (4-1) Simple approach as this one might be the lone leader.
Race 8: Clm $7.5k 6.5f
Clear standout, we’re cold singled
- Top Choice: #5 Moon of Montana (3-1 & bet 2.0 unit at 8/5 or greater) Is the best of speed and the cutback in distance will help with any fitness issues off this long layoff. Fair price feels around 8/5 or so.
Race 9: Alw 8.5f (T)
Fantastic allowance race if the rain holds off. This race shapes up to be the stepping stone for many in here, whether being to longer distances or graded stakes races. Pace projects honest but not melt down hot, so we’re looking for stalkers.
- Best Value: #6 Holyfield (8-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Plenty of back class with trying to tangle with some very successful 3 year olds. This one only needs to take a small step forward and can make it to the winner’s circle. Emma-Jayne Wilson back aboard for Day-Phillips who fires well off these long layoff types. The value line stands around 6-1.
- Most Logical: #11 Souper Watson (4-1) Arguably comes into the race with the most fitness after facing some stiff competition down at GP. The last race produced some next out strong Beyers in the high 80’s, low 90’s. Projects this one to stalk the pace closely and try to hang out late.
- Consideration: #9 Muskoka Giant (15-1) Has a bit of a muddy form we like to see. Last two runnings were too long and against too tough of competition. Three back showed good grit to stay within the superfecta. The overall turf runnings show there might still be upside left with the recent gelding. Cassee will try to get this four year ready off the break.
- Consideration if drawn in: #15 Pleasecallmeback (9/2) Always like to see the claim back, especially when it’s a trainer’s money (Attfield owns and trains this one). The last two efforts were decent runnings with a mild pace setup per TimeForm US. This one will be closing late and likely in the mix. Wouldn’t leave off exotics but don’t love for the first spot (wide trip, likes to hang, 1-17).
- Too Short To Back : #3 Haddassah (3-1) The lone race for this one is quite good; however, there’s too many question marks to be taking a 3-1 price on this one. Is this merely a stepping stone for the Queen’s Plate, how will this one run on turf, etc.
Race 10: OC $40k 5f
Old friend of mine Detroit Steele in this race with the record of 1 for 39 (sadly we won’t be backing today, but rooting on).
- Most Likely: #3 Forest Survivor (6-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Finally gets a rail draw and projects to be lone speed. Looks to do best running going 5.5f or shorter. Expect out on the early lead. If no one pressures, an easy win.
- Best Value: #9 Have a Souper Day (12-1) Tiller is on fire right now winning half his races with four entrants yesterday. I do fancy this horse in this spot as he continues to show grit and has upside still left as this being the first start as a four year old. Should be wide, stalk the pace, and hopefully have something left to be a grinder style finish. There’s plenty of pace inside, so the setup on paper is there. Tiller has a positive ROI in long layoffs, sprints, and synth races.
- Exotic use: #2 Crafty Conquest (10-1) Like the gelding aspect with what appears two back to be a glimmer of hope this one is competitive here.
Race 11: OC $62k 7f
May as well be a listed stakes with all these great runners in here.
- Top Choice: #10 A Thread of Blue (4-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Comes in the most fit of this bunch. Looking to be rounding into top form and the recent gelding will only help. Has plenty of speed to stay in touch with this field and have enough stamina to carry on. Value line stands around 3-1.
- Best Value: #14 Roaring Forties (8-1) Ran some very competitive races last season against the monster in Pink Lloyd. Today the pace and distance will suit this horse nicely, staying in touch with the field (maybe 2-3L back going 2,3 wide). Or… could easily just go to the lead and run them off their feet.
- Defensive Use: #8 Avie’s Flatter (3-1) Has the best back class and highest figures in here. I think this horse wants longer but may easily overcome this bunch while stalking.
Race 12: MOC 40k 7f
Not much to get excited about here.
- Most Logical: #4 Breathlessnthesand (6-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Has proven back class and demonstrated an ability for different running styles. I would expect we’ll see the speed and go approach here as the inside draw with no speed outside should be a recipe for success.
- Next Best: #7 Ultimate Storm (4-1) Trainer does well first time starters, top jockey mount.
Race 13: MOC $40k – no bet but may #12 Blue Max with the strong back to back gate drills
