Race 7: Trillium (G3) 8.5 (AW)
Banking on the pace to be too hot with these horses coming off long layoffs.
- Most Logical/Cold Single #8 Heavenly Curlin (5/2 & bet 1.0 unit) The pace duel between Souper Escape and Merveilleux should setup perfectly for this four year old that still has plenty of upside left. Came out last year and notched 3 wins in 3 runs. Past two runnings were too deep of waters and maybe not the ideal surface surface.
- Next Best: #5 Merveilleux (3-1) Has shown an ability to fire fresh. This horse has enough pace to stay in touch with Souper Escape and grind home past late.
Race 8: Clm $10k 8f (inner T)
Tough bunch in here with many droppers and long layoff types.
- Most Logical: #7 Post to Post (4-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Watch carefully on the outer turf vs. the 8f inner turf events. The inner going around the two turns lends well to those horses who can be more tactical, establish position, and quicken around turns. The outer events tend to be a bit more forgiving to horses without tactical speed and allow for grinding styles. For today’s event, our top pick fits the inner course perfectly with enough speed to get early position and still has some quicken. The best figures have been run over this course. With the minimal pace on today, I wouldn’t be shocked if Kimura puts this one out on the lead and rolls. The horse drops down in class to the $10k claiming ranks but is protected.
- Next Best: #2 Crumlin Queen (3-1) Drops to the lowest tag today. Sitting the pocket and tipping out late around the far turn might be enough to get the best of this bunch.
- Exotic Use: #8 Rince Tapaigh (6-1) Could easily go overlooked in the betting. Has run respectable numbers considering against the pace flow. Today gets some speed drawn in the race. Small chance but might be the best closer to stay in touch with the field and have something left.
Race 9: OC $15k 6f (AW)
Plenty of speed in here.
- Most Logical: #3 Piquet (7/2 & bet 0.5 unit) Finally gets a nice inside post where this one will be able to stalk the pace. Pace setup should be there to make a move late while not being too far out of it. Always seems to run his race so don’t leave this 7 year old off vertical wagers.
- Best Value: #7 Zoysia (10-1) Lots to like with this one. Last out broke well and dueled the pace going 4 wide. The horse looked short as they turned for home, maybe just a fitness run. Today will be second off the layoff (hoping for a bit more finish) and gets a jockey upgrade with Fukumoto.
- Next Best: #2 Hassah (5/2) Will get a similar setup to Piquet but is a notch below on TimeForm US figures.
Race 10: Alw 6.5f (T)
Race is full of either deeeep closers or cut back types that don’t look to benefit from the odd 6.5f distance.
- Most Logical: #5 Fairywren (4-1 & bet 2.0 units) Last out was too sharp and put this one out of position (too far back trying to close into the sprint pace). Two back ran into a world of trouble and still earned a figure that would beat this bunch. This one projects to be almost loose and able to relax on the lead in here. We know based on the race two back this one finds best strides late, so don’t be surprised if she repels the bid of any contender late in the stretch.
- Best Value: #10 Bodacious Miss (12-1) Interesting prospect in here with upside left. On debut ran well leading them the entire way around. For the second time out, jumped into too deep of water. I like the upward pattern and we know this one can fire fresh. Can this one step up and be able to set faster early fractions and relax to stay in contention?
- Exotic Use: #2 Slydini (20-1) Has won around these levels before and in front running fashion. There’s a chance no one goes with this horse and holds late at a massive price (see 12/11/19 running).
