Race 7: Alw 6.5f (T)
- Most Logical: #1 Comedy Town (3-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Third off the layoff and should have good fitness. Has the speed to be forwardly placed, and more importantly not stuck stalking on the rail, a recipe that has been terrible the past week.
- Best Value: #6 Finalist (6-1) Has been running against some classy horses. If the speed heats up from the inside, this one will be perfectly placed. Overall figures look the best in this field but don’t trust the trip.
- Exotic Use: #10 Cerrado (10-1) Can’t see this one catching the winner circle due to the distance being too sharp. But this one is ripe for minor placings. Fukumoto will tuck this one along the rail and stalk, bouncing out late to make one run. He’s been riding sharp this week.
Race 8: Mdn 5f (T) – beyond the top choice, this becomes a spread race
- Best Value: #5 Silenzio (10-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Slight step up in class but has the best speed on paper of this entire bunch. Sometimes just getting to the lead is enough in these maiden type events.
- Next Best: #4 Green Cables (3-1) Has some very sharp back works that signal this one could have some speed.
- Consideration: #3 Zia Mo (12-1) Expecting this price to come down to 5-1 or so with the 21% 1st time turf for this trainer. Has some sharp works and Contreras is riding well.
Race 9: OC $40k 6f (AW)
- Next Best: #11 Last American Exit (8-1 & bet 2.0 units, expect the price to come down off the 8-1 around 4-1) Does best running from off the pace. Has not had a pace to run into on paper per Timeform US. Today projects a bit more speed and that is a very good thing for this horse. Sit wide 3-4 lengths off into the turn, hands and heels to pick off some runners, and the grind past at the 1/8 pole.
- Top Choice: #6 Combative (9/2) Love the cut back, has the speed, and finishes well. We expect to get great value in the pools because many will spread.
- Consideration: #7 Latonka (12-1) Massive layoff of 3 years but this horse was very talented in the two runnings. The last win was done in impressive fashion: dropped far back, made one run, against the pace flow. The workout tab looks like things are back on track for this now 6 year old.
Race 10: OC $40k 6f (T)
- Most Logical: #4 All Canadian (8-1 & bet 2.0 units) First time gelding has speed and looks to want the shorter distance. Improving type.
- Consideration: #10 Download (20-1 – hard to imagine this price stays) Last race was a good effort running against a horse I’m fond of, Derzskii. Two back was just a tad too far and ran a decent race, stalking and tending the pace of the merri-go-round shaped race. Three back tough trip. With a slight step forward this one gets the win.
- Trip Note: 9/20/20 3 jumps out of gate almost falling over, settles on rail, only one gaining ground along rail, bounced out 4 paths, jockey didn’t try to finish
- Consideration: #7 Souper Classy (20-1) Gets back on the right surface today and could turn things around.
- Trip Note: 9/19/20 broke sharp, subtle check/bump out of pace, sat off hot pace, made move, ran well against the pace flow.
