Woodbine 7/1/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 2: MC $7.5k – spread event

• A+/Best Value: #12 Moonlight Melody (15-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Had the best move in the last race closing into the slow pace up front. With a bit more distance added, could find best strides late and blow by this lackluster bunch.
• A+/Most Logical: #4 Ri N Ginger (3-1) Should be the speed in here and could get loose. Has a decent finish but not great.
• A+/Next Best: #13 Shes Astylish Katz (6-1) Couldn’t hang in the last even with no real excuses. Today’s class level should fit nicely and will be forward early.
• A/Consideration: #2 Bearthestorm (10-1) On debut had a terrible break but made a great move around the turn. The PP’s won’t reflect the decent run this one had because the jockey gave up at the top of the stretch, realizing too far against the pace flow. Trainer has won with half of the four runners sent out so far this meet, both wins coming at 9-1 and 25-1. This one could be another big runner. Chernetz is riding lights out. Post draw should help.
• A/Consideration: #3 My Dad Rocks (12-1 & bet 0.25 unit) Traveled wide early stages of the race and around the turn. Was able to hang on well as the jockey gave up in the final strides to conserve horse.

Race 3: Clm $25k 6f (AW)

• A/Most Logical #2 Brass Compass (5/2 & bet 1.0 unit) Trainer is firing 24% in 21 starts at Woodbine going the sprint distance, so we know he can fire fresh. Has the back figures prior to the claim to get this job done. Might get loose out there with little speed in this race. Drops to a lower level.
• A/Next Best: #6 Piven (2-1) Will have first run at our top choice. Expect this horse to stalk wide and make move down lane. Another dropping into easier waters

Race 4: Clm $15kN2L 7.5f (T inner, 2 turns)

Salty bunch of N2L’s, watch for the AE’s – if they draw in we’re shifting towards closers like our top choice

• A/Best Value #10 Echo In The Forest (20-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Didn’t really run nor was really asked last out. Stalked back of pack, moved out wide, jockey more or less conserved the horse the entire race. Could be a sneaky bomb if can get back to some prior figures and have a bit of a pace to run into. I do like seeing this one finished close behind Post to Post in the last try on the inner. Post to Post came back out a winner last weekend. We’ll excuse the November 12^th and August 22^nd running as the long breaks in between signal maybe something wasn’t right.
• A/Consideration: #7 Alternative View (3-1) Drexler is firing away well so won’t be leaving this one off the tickets. Last out stalked the pace and ran on determinedly. Husbands gets back aboard who has done well on this one before. The tactical speed of this one will ensure in touch with the field early and around the final turn.
• A/Defensive Use: #8 Big Cheeks (7/2) Tries winners for third time after getting first victory down at GP. Don’t love the fact this one is 1 for 14 but maybe the light bulb came on after the maiden win and could be ready for another big effort 2^nd off layoff.
• B/Defensive Use: #6 She’s a True Fox (4-1) Strange race last out showing new dimension being a loose leader. Jockey never asked the horse down the lane yet still held on for 2^nd. Has put up solid numbers going 7.5 on the inner.
• B/Consideration: #5 Blueyed Princess (12-1) Breaks maiden on debut impressively, tries turf and flops, comes back on turf for third career start and something was wrong as the horse takes a long break until AP this May while showing speed. Put in a maintenance 3f workout down at Keeneland since that AP running. Enigma of form and could pay well in the pick five pool as the odds will be blind. Gets lasix for the first time so might help build in stamina. If the late lugging wasn’t such an issue, would be using on top.
  • Trip Note: AP 5/9 traveled widest of all and couldn’t quick, but in the lane jockey stood up at 1/16th after the horse got spooked or took a bad step. On the head on you see the horse had a stutter step stride causing lugging, kept on terms still impressively

~~Off Turf~~ 7 (A, tending hot paces last year on the AW, should get an easier go of things and be tactical early), 8 (A, should be up and near the pace as well, was well outclassed last out and coming off the break, gets 2^nd off the break today), 10 (B, will stalk and might have the best closing kick if the AE’s draw in)

Race 5: Clm $25k 8f (T, one turn)

Such a tough race

• A/Top Choice: #4 Alice’s War (3-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Either was closing into slow paces or facing too stiff of competition. Today drops in for the tag and should get one run at things.
• B/Best Value: #1 Line of Vision (15-1) Has been trying to close into slow paces. Today’s race projects to have some decent speed signed on. Gets back with Andrew Smith who had some of the best runnings with this one.
• B/Next Best: #3 The Adrie Factor (4-1) Way out classed off the break. Has some of the better figures in this race and will be placed stalked the lead. Trainer is 22% wins over Turf and Woodbine. I’ll trust the second off the layoff with Hernandez.
• Could use more backups… but think need to find a stand somewhere

~~Off Turf~~ 4 (A, Continues to close into slow paces and owns best figures on AW in this bunch), 6 (A, could easily get loose, the layoff is a bit of a question)

Race 6: MOC $40k 7.5f (T, inner)

See this as a great betting race in the win pools

• A+/Top Choice: #11 Moonlit Silence (5-1 & bet 2.0 units) Second off break, tended the hot pace dulling all efforts last out. Jockey upgrade.
  • Trip Note: 6/12 stalked the pace very wide and ran on well enough considering the amount of ground loss trying to make the move too early.
  • Trip Note: 10/29 traveled wide closing against pace flow
• A/Next Best: #8 Suspicious Minds (20-1 but expect 8-1 as that ML feels off) Drops back into the right level after trying to some great mid-70’s maidens. Today should get a closer trip, use the tactical speed to stay close and quicken well.
• B/Consideration: #7 Itskatiesluckyday (12-1) The rare 7f work on the tab. Dropped down into the MC ranks last summer to try and get the win, running much more competitive than when in the MSW ranks. Owned and trained by Keogh, he has this one protected today and not in for the tag. Should be tactical and like the cut back.

~~ Off Turf ~~ 11 (A, same reasons above and doesn’t mind AW), 7 (A, same as above, proven figs on AW but still turf upside), 4 (A, second try over synth, huge run last out and gets Lasix), 8 (B, synth sire)

Race 7: Dominion Day Stakes G3 8.5f (AW)

• Most Logical: #2 March to the Arch (9/5 & bet 3.0 units if odds stay above 3/5) Simply put, this one’s three year old performances on synthetic are competitive with this field. Projecting upward, the synth figures will roll this field. Even without a ton of pace signed on, should be able to overcome with class. I expect some folks will try to get cute with Mighty Heart but I’m standing against. He was a house name on the triple crown trail and will likely be over bet.
• Next Best: #5 Malibu Mambo (12-1) Too sharp last out and coming off the break to finish a nice second behind Avie’s Flatter, a graded stakes winner. With a horse that still has four year old upside left in him, could see Moran being part of the early responder pack (thanks Benny for that term) and get first jump on the front runners of Mighty Heart and Skywire (I’m assuming Casse with his three runners will use at least one to try and press the issue on Mighty Heart).