Woodbine 7/3/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 1: Mdn 8.5f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #4 Ballymore Star (2-1 & bet 2.0 units) Couple good trip notes and faced tougher in prior races. Wouldn’t want to wager if this one drops below the 3/2 mark as trying synth first time is a bit of a question mark, but speed is holding and this one should be on the lead early.
    • Trip Note 4/15: 3w into first turn, started challenging into FT 3w and then could never get straight at top of stretch, got SMASHED multiple times at top of stretch, never asked. too far against pace flow
    • Trip Note 3/26: bottled up along the rail at top of stretch with nowhere to go, winner had clear sailing

Race 3:OC $40k 8.5 (AW)

Zero pace in here and track has been playing kind to speed

  • Most Logical: Derskii (2-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Looks to be the best speed on paper (sneaky speed) and has some upside left. Wouldn’t be surprised if the price drifts up a bit on this one to 5/2 or 3-1.
    • Trip Note: 6/20 odd ride, stalk pace, gave up halfway into FT bc horse couldn’t quicken with the pack, then found best strides late and passed horses, jock realized had some horse ,asked at 1/16th. Was never getting to winners but effort was better than looked bc of jock

Race 4: MC $15k 6f

  • Best Value: #7 Born to be Good (8-1 & bet 2.0 units) Ran a great winning race last out and looked to need the race. At the price we’re getting, will be the play of the day.
    • Trip Note 6/12  rated at the break, had to settle half through BS to lose position, pulled into race into turn (positive), made first move around FT to break apart race, NF effort 1/16, short horse should do better next

Race 7: Alw 8.5f (AW)

  • Best Value: #10 Reliability (15-1 & bet 0.5 unit) Upside still here for this four year old. Spring time was running competitive TimeForm numbers with this bunch. If can take a step forward cane easily hit the board. Trainer has been firing 3 winners out of 9 runners this meet. Has a nice 59 flat workout in June.
  • Most Logical: #8 Belichick (6/5 – expect less than evens) Elects to skip the Dominion Day Stakes for this event. In this race should get more speed to run into and the wide draw sets up well. Two back faced tried to pass a tough horse in Field Pass but couldn’t get the job done. Today should be able to stalk well and grind past this bunch. Price will be too short to put as top choice with the probability around 45-55% chance of winning. If odds stay above evens, good bet to get down on.

Race 8: MOC $25k 5f (AW)

  • Most Logical: #4 Sweet Edition (3-1 & 1.0 unit) We’re a broken record in these writeups, but we’re riding Drexler. With first after trainer change percentages are 27% (n=37). Has speed, looks to be continuing to improve from last year. Gets to the lead and clears this field.
  • Next Best: #5 Lacougra (6-1) Gets the Lasix for the first time and has been speed and fade. Today gets to run one panel less than the last outing.

Race 9: OC $65k 8.5f (T – one turn)

Watch the odds here as the ML feels a bit off. This race really comes down to odds on the tote

  • Best Value: #8 Afleet Katherine (6-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Second off the break after trying to close into the slow slow slow pace last out. The first three races career show this one loves to fire fresh. Let’s get the money these second off layoff.
    • Trip Note 6/12/21 merri-go-round, needs longer, way too far back against the pace flow
  • Most Logical: #4 Art of Almost (3-1 & bet 1.0 unit, no bet if this one dips between 2-1) Has tried stalking and closing against some VERY classy horses. Has decent finish and this race should be an easy race. Only question mark is this just a stepping stone and not fully cranked.
  • Next Best: #10 Juxtapose (10-1) 2nd off the layoff, closed into slow pace to get the win, stellar race record, needs to step forward, nice underneath play in verticals.

Race 10: OC $40k 8.5f (AW)

  • Best Value: #1 Dixie Giant (20-1 & bet 1.0 unit) Have a great sneaky trip note on this one. Gets the ultimate equipment change (Gelding) and still has upside left getting the second off the layoff start. Gets a bit of a jockey upgrade with Moran.
    • Trip Note: 6/13 rated very well until the turn, down tight, asked to go with the pack but a NF horse caused this one to tap on the breaks as they turned for home, found the opening, accelerated well against the pace of the race.
  • Most Logical: #12 Pound Green (4-1) Continues to run decent numbers, gets 2nd off the break, and should be forwardly placed.
  • Next Best: #11 Avoman (8-1) Ran some strong numbers as a 2 year old. Gets first start as a three year old and projecting up should fit this bunch. Another stalker type that will need a bit of pace setup. Has earned all figures against the pace and running hard.
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