Yesterday’s bet back couldn’t quite get it done for us at the nice 5-1 price. In my opinion, this one showed a good performance at a nice price with the two eventual first and second place winners making their own dream trips. But a loss is a loss. Curious to hear readers’ thoughts on the bet back (already received a few good notes taking both sides, keep ’em coming). Either way, no more meat left on that bone both literary-wise and value-wise.
Race 7: Connaught Cup G2 7f (T)
The race seems to be a simple question of who will go with Silent Poet and how fast. If no one goes with Silent Poet, we estimate this one is a lock.
- Best Bet: #3 Blind Ambition (8-1) The back class of this horse is impressive, the question is will the 6 year old still have it. We trust in the training abilities of Casse. No other horses really scare us here, so the 8-1 morning line looks too good to be true. Should have enough speed to sit right behind Silent Poet, White Flag, and maybe Admiralty Pier. It’s very important to note that this distance fits this horse perfect. The past few runnings have had slow paces up front for this stalker, leaving his quicken dull. The extra furlong with the added pace pressures should setup perfect. I’m taking anything over 7/2 here.
- Honorable Mention: #1 Silent Poet (9/5): has the speed in the race and should get clear running. Only problem is there are other speeds signed on and those connections know they can’t let Silent Poet get loose. With the likely scenario this one will have to dispel the duels as well as stave the closers, I’m looking elsewhere for value. Very logical contender and a classy horse, for sure.
- To Watch: #4 Admiralty Pier (10-1) Has both tactics in his bag: sit off the pace or take the lead. I have liked this horse since showing the grit in the Woodbine Mile tending to the fast pace. I don’t like the layoff or jockey assignment, so we’ll have to wait and see.
Race 8: OCLM $15k 8.5f (T)
Good competitive field of optional claimers. The limited speed will assist my top choice to kick on well.
- Most Logical: #4 Lapochka (4-1 – expect 2-1) Came home so well first off the bench to overcome the neutral fractions. Emma-Jane (firing at 24% on turf) stays aboard. With limited speed, I’m hoping for a 2 or 3 wide trip to stay out of trouble (I think we’ll see some speed and fade types so that could become problematic) and tip out to grind down the lane.
- Best Value: #3 Court Battle (20-1) Without speed, this is a chance for this one to get loose. I will excuse the last effort as the speed and fade down the lane (eventual winners were closing) upgrades this horse in my book. Please note that PTF believes there is some speed signed on, so we’ll see if this one becomes moot.
Race 9: Alw n1x $100k 8.5f (T)
Wide open event that begs for a price with the full field.
- Best Value: #4 Willy’s Castle (20-1) The biggest question: is that last figure real against the tougher competition? My vote is that it is real. When digging back, the figures fit around the mid-70’s Beyer range for turf events so we’ll agree that was the right number. To build upon that figure, the replay reveals the strangest hands of a jockey – out of gate trying to settle horse, middle of turn urging horse to get into gear, into far turn looks profession, runs on well with Avie’s Mesa passing by deep stretch. The trainer is great firing synth to turf at 22% with a positive $3.38 (courtesy of DRF Formulator). Without any inside speed to compete with, a more focused horse, and loose on the lead there’s a chance to wire this field?
- Top Choice: #5 Encierro (12-1) Typically I don’t like to take the long layoff horse, but I have trust in Catherine Day-Phillips to get this job done. Only one I could find with decent backclass and respectable figures. With this being the first start for the 4 year old campaign, the figures project higher. The workouts look good back on 6/6 and the most recent works look to be fitness gallops.
- Next Bet: #8 Royal Laser (6-1) Solid record on turf and the trainer angle of firing 22% when going sprint -> route on turf. The 6.5 event last out was too sharp as this horse isn’t built for speed. Expect to take the second flight of horses and have a good closing kick. This one isn’t the top choice due to the price that is likely to shorten up to 3-1 or so.
Wagering Approach $30 Budget
Well, well, well. Our backs are up against the wall and for no reason. Our top choice selection’s ROI since the start of the meet is at 21% ($24.40 profit with $116 wagered, 30 picks) . Feel free to check my math as this isn’t a tout as more of a lesson on terrible money management and wagering on my part. So how in the world we ended up in this massive hole we have no… oh yea, exotics. So let’s keep it simple moving from here on out – win bets only except for horses at 10-1 or higher, we’ll play the win/place bets. Let’s get phase III of the wagering strategy underway
- Race 7: $10 Win Bet #3 Blind Ambition
- Race 8: $10 Win Bet #4 Lapochka
- Race 9: $10 Win/Place #4 Willy’s Castle
Meet Stats as of 7/10/2020
- Meet ROI: -$299.65
- Wagered $424.40
- Won: $114.75