Woodbine 7/18/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 7: Mdn 6f (AW)

We see a bit of value taking a stand against two favorites. Can those two contenders win? Sure! But our projected probability of a win doesn’t represent where the morning lines stand.  

  • Best Value: #4 Bunchkins (20-1 – needs to be 20-1 or higher to capture the market inefficiency) TimeForm had that last race coded as 142 at the first call, 30 points higher than any others in here. The replay was a little interesting as the jockey looked to be told to “Work the horse” and gain experience. There was limited urging and the horses’ ears were pricked up turning for home. This one looks perfectly fit and shouldn’t come up as short with the recent two works, a full panel less to run, and second career start. I don’t see much other speed that will contend with this loose leader.
  • Value Contender: #8 Neptune’s Pearl (12-1) Something looked amiss in the debut effort. I trust that Day-Phillips has this one sorted out and could stalk if the pace in this heats up with the two Casse runners and our top choice.
  • Beatable Short Price: #2 Tiz Affair (3-1) Casse isn’t a stranger to the move: cut back, turf to synthetic move at Woodbine. Over the past five years, he’s tried 116 times and won 20% at Woodbine ($1.76 payoff so that’s meh). But when you add one last filter to this stat, maiden ranks, the ROI plummets to $1.32 with 16% winners. We have our value line for this one set around 20% (4-1).
  • Too Short to Back: #3 Our Secret Agent (5/2) Co-favorite for Casse has lost two straight at odds of less than 2-1 (ouch!). Both instances there was some speed and fade, which we don’t love to see. Our value line for this one sits around 25% (3-1) so if the price drifts above those odds we may change our tune.

Race 8: Trillium G3 8.5f (AW)

This looks on paper like a rematch from the Nassau G2 a few weekends back. Morning lines could move drastically on the day as there doesn’t seem to be a clear cut favorite.

  • Best Value: Amalfi Coast (8-1): Two back had a troubled trip and is excused first off the layoff. Last out was a dull effort as Another Time (entered today) and Elizabeth Way couldn’t be reeled in. Now those two bad runnings are out of the way, this third running could be significant at a nice price. When digging back into 2019 results, the November 24th running of the Bessarabian G2 was significant indicator of what may happen this weekend. Stalked and closed into blue fractions on TimeForm US. With a little more pace signed on today, I see Amalfi sitting the rail trip a few lengths back and making a nice move down the stretch. One last note on the recent slow workout –  the slow work between the Nassua and now tells me the horse is fit and all was needed was a maintenance gallop. If the horse wasn’t fit or tired, I trust Attard would give the horse time and skip this spot or work the horse hard.
  • One to Watch: Another Time (2-1): Was all over the place coming down the lane in the last event– either leg weary or lost focus. The running line should say, “lost 4 lengths in deep stretch” due to the wandering that was going on. I can see this one getting the better of the field sitting in the front pack. DISCLAIMER – I have loved this horse the entire season. So much so I made the prediction this one would be a graded stakes winner by end of 2020 (so I’m very biased).

Race 9: Royal North G2 6f (T)

I can make a case for many of the runners in this event, so I need to demand value. We see the race shape with a dark horse up-close to the pace at 15-1.

  • Best Value: #2 Bohemian Bourbon (15-1) Toss out the last two events for this improving four year old. In the June event tried to tackle Guarana (Chad Brown monster that rang in his 100th Grade One win last weekend). Two back at Gulfstream this Spring, ran into sprinters who have earned respectable 90+ Beyers. That distance also looked a bit short on the day. As for the event today, I can easily see this one sitting just off the hip of Foxxy Belle who has great natural speed and getting first run at her around the turn. As for the stats with Ian Wilkes, he has only shipped four horses to Woodbine going 0-5. Nessy being the most recent when finished second in defeat to Old Persian in the Northern Dancer and lost to Dessert Encounter in the CAN International. So what the heck does Nessy have to do with this shipper? His operation only ships serious horses north of the boarder and maybe there’s a bigger stakes race on tap. Signal or noise, we’ll have to wait and see if this one can outrun the odds.
  • Most Logical: #3 Summer Sunday (3-1) The prep for this race looked to a be a solid one on paper, stalking the pace against two very talented runners (Painting and Jean Elizabeth). Today should come back a bit sharper and should post another good figure.
  • Exotic Use: #6 Eyeinthesky (20-1) Doubt you’ll see the 20-1 as the excuses are glaring. Last running was two too many panels. Two back trying to run a stormer off a layoff in the yielding turf while trying to chase down Newpaperofrecord and Regal Glory. I would expect on the day we’ll see around 8-1. Nonetheless, this one could put it all together but will be too short of a price. If still sitting at 20-1 with 5mtp, that mayhave my attention (assuming a firm turf course).

Race 10: MC $15k 6.5f (AW)

What a tough race to crack. Another spot where we won’t side with favoritism in a murky maiden event. If you can, spread as far as you can.

  • Best Value: #10 Tackle the North (20-1) Last race on the turf broke cleanly and tended a hot pace for a few strides, then dropped back into second flight. Dream rail trip and made move skimming the rail. Unfortunately that hole was quickly shutoff at the 1/8th pole, ruining all chances of a run. There’s definitely room for improvement with this speedster trying poly again. We’ll need all of 20-1 and more to justify a wager as that rail move may have been flattered.
  • Most Logical: #8 Staronthehorizon (4-1 – that price is way too short as our top pick considering the chaos factor this race is showing) Barbra Minshall owns and trains this one. As the horse has been resting for 6+ months, there’s a significant amount of bills piling up. For how sharp she is, she’s out here to win, make the money back stabling this one, and hope no one drops a tag in on this once listed stakes entered horse. The cut back should help, especially when looking at the decent middle move in the last event.
  • Exotic Use: #2 Naked Illusion (20-1) Might move up from the two turf tries. I like the blinkers come off and the cut back. Maybe we’ll see speed and a new gear?

 

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Further reading

Woodbine 11/14/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 8: South Ocean $100k 6.5f (AW) The 6.5f distance will be the key in endurance for the favorite. SCR Best Value: #8 Gizmo’s BFF (20-1) Last out...