Woodbine 8/16/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 8: Seaway G3 7f (AW)

This race is quite the puzzle and the tote board is likely to move around a good bit, so look for clues there.

  • Top Choice: #3 Another Time (8-1) In the last few starts has looked to need the cut back and will get that today. Chased a loose leader last out in #2 Souper Escape, eventually fading down the lane (looked to be lugging out a bit, so signs of a bridge too far in distance). Should be able to achieve a ground saving trip and close on well. I hope this one finally gets that elusive graded stakes win.
  • Most Logical: #8 Amalfi Coast (7/2) Has gone off form of late, but the two 2020 starts had bad pace setups, so we’ll excuse those. Today’s event should have more sustained pace to run into. The strong recent work shows this one isn’t really off form, just catching bad breaks. The value line sits around 3-1 for us.
  • Exotic Use #6 Sister Peacock (6-1) Pretty simple speed approach for this one. Third off the layoff should ensure peak performance. The recent 5f strong work hopefully built a bit more stamina to hold that sustained speed.
  • Beatable Favorite: #2 Souper Escape (2-1) Got the easiest of leads last out and had minimal pace pressure. Today’s race will be drastically different with plenty of speed signed on for this one turn event. Looking back at the form, sprints don’t seem to suit this runner.

Race 9: OC $62k 7f (T)

These optional events can be a great spot to find value with murky pace scenarios like this one

  • Best Value: #8 Perfect Speightly (15-1) Fipke and Attfield send out this one for the horse’s second start since last summer. Last out, TimeForm US indicates ran 10-20 points faster early in the race then the rest of this bunch here today. If can break cleanly, this one has the chance to simply wire the field under the great hands of Emma-Jayne. The workout pattern looks flawless as well.
  • Most Logical: #5 Thor’s Rocket (4-1) Is the class of the field and the TimeForm US figures from previous performances can best this bunch. We didn’t put as our top choice due to the extended layoff, however, this 7 year old did this same pattern last June with only modest success.
  • Next Best: #9 Gray’s Fable (5/2) Gets Lasix for the first time after 8 lifetime starts which is interesting. This one will try to break and catch the lead, but we think will have to run wide due to some inside speed horses. Tough trip and too short of a price, but has a shot to win here if steps forward.

Race 10: MOC $15k 8f (T)

I don’t envy the morning line maker trying to write this line for 16 runners and half are also eligible. As of writing this morning, all AE’s scratched. No strong opinions here for us.

  • Top Choice: Twomanyshots (3-1) Attfield has this horse in good shape according to the workout tab. Gets a bit of class relief and top jockey assignment. The distance is the question mark, but so is the case for many others in here.
  • Next Best: Frost Dance (5/2) Nice class relief today and has some decent tactical speed. Top jockey gets the assignment and will almost certainly keep that price at the 5/2 mark. Still a bit too short to back.
  • Exotic Use: Baby Driver  (6-1) Third off layoff and looks to be rounding into a decent form of a front running sprinter. Distance is a big question mark, so will need 10-1 to back.

Race 11: OC $40k 7f (T)

What a chaos race! If you’re playing in this last one, make sure to spread as the favorites don’t look iron clad here.

  • Best Value: #11 D Magician (30-1) What a price! Let’s start with the foundation in the past performances. When breaking maiden as a two year old posted the career best Beyer of 76 – that’s a few points higher than the rest of this bunch. Then runs into every big name horse and stood no shot. My guess is maturity got the better of him and started losing focus during the 2019 season. Now with the gelding can get back to posting nice figures. The bug rider gets aboard who has posted an impressive 7 top three finishes out of 19 starters. If we’re getting anything over 20-1, this is a fun one to take a swing with where we don’t see any real threats in this challenging puzzle of a field.
  • Next Best: #6 Prince of Thieves (12-1) Gets back to turf after a try on the poly. I’ll excuse the latest turf try on the Gulfstream turf as that lawn plays very different than what he’ll see today. Going farther back, never stood a chance against the big names in the listed and graded stakes ranks. If Casse has this one ready to break cleanly and establish position, this is a nice price at 10-1 or higher.
  • Most Logical/Too Short Price: #7 Have A Souper Day (3-1) Figures appear to be trending in the right direction from DRF Formulator so will respect. Don’t love that this horse has raced 9 times but only one of those come outside of the maiden rank. Having to try so many times to break the maiden is never a sign of a “win machine” and the company kept down in those rungs can flatter speed figures.

Leave a Reply

Further reading