Woodbine 8/22/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 7: Clm $15k 5.5f (AW)

Taking a stand against the favorite to kick off the pick four.

  • Best Value: #2 Bonnie Lee (12-1) Last out we’ll cross a line through without much of an excuse. Two back we’ll also cross a line through as the horse was WAY in over her head, facing the likes of Fact Checking and Artie’s Princess. Going back to the 2019 campaign, the foundation set in those three races projects for further improvement today. Value line for this one sits around 8-1 for us.
  • Most Logical: #6 Cindervella (3-1) Pretty straight forward pick: best figures, drop in class, and has the tactical speed. The 0 for 6 at the distance doesn’t have us running to the windows at 3-1, though.
  • Contender: #4 Sea Lily (7/2) What happened at Fort Erie two back losing at 2/5? Maybe it was the dirt that she didn’t take well to. Either way, this one has the previous form to best the field here. We don’t love the low jockey win percentage and the huge drop in class. There might not be too much left here in the tank?
  • Beatable Favorite: #8 Dad’s Missy (5/2) Not often do you see a horse rattle of a half dozen races around the 42 Beyer Speed Figure mark and then pop at a 70. We expect a regression off that number. The distance doesn’t look to flatter this stalking style of horse either.

Race 8: Eternal Search ($100k) 8.5f (T)

Shipper coming in from Saratoga to be likely heavy favorite.

  • Best Value: #7 Gun Society (12-1) Attfield owns, trains, and bred this one. Look for some added speed with the blinkers going on today. The strong summer workout tab supports that theory, too. We can make a few excuses for the last two starts off the long break. Coming back after 7 months, faces off with Curlin’s Voyage (winner of the WO Oaks). Last start was too far back when the real running began. Showed a nice bit of quicken near the end. If this one can stay in touch with the field, that quicken should pay dividends. Value line stands at 10-1. Anything less, we’ll side with out logical contender.
  • Most Logical: #6 Bramble Queen (5/2 but predict closer to 8/5) This 5 year old was in over her head last out. Today gets a massive class relief and a distance where the horse is 4 for 10. The figures predict this one to be just off the pace. Expect to see her close well late.

Race 9: Clm $25k 9f (T)

Race shape looks to no clear speeds in the claiming event

  • Best Value: #4 Rince Tapaigh (6-1 but predict this one could be bet down as low as 5/2) Last out had a horrid trip getting blocked for 10-15 jumps down the lane while closing well into a slow pace. Putting the horrible trip aside, what has our attention is the head carriage from August 3rd, 2019 versus the run in July of 2020. There was a distinct sawing motion in the recent start that looked to be very inefficient. When going back to look at this horse’s best runnings (cue up 8/3/2020 replay) there was a very smooth head carriage (any horsemen who can explain why that happens, very interested to hear). With a more smooth running action and being second off the bench, the 6-1 price seems like a gift in this murky bunch of claimers.
  • Most Logical: #3 Love Daddy (3-1) Over the past two races has been put in bad spots trying to close into blue coded TimeForm US pace figures. We’re hoping today will be run with a more honest pace. The additional furlong will help this one get going late, as well. The overall figures seem to fit on paper with this group, too. Value line sits at 3-1.

Race 10: Clm $25k 8f (T)

Deep field has us searching for a price in the chaos as the likely favorite yet again draws a post out in the parking lot.

  • Top Choice: #8 Rapunzel’s Dream (10-1) Ran a good race to break the maiden off the long layoff. Last out we’ll scratch a line through. Today should get that same pace as setup that won her first race. The strong work out tab indicates there’s likely something more left in the tank.
  • Best Value: #4 Mine Fast Philly (20-1) In the last race, had to travel widest of all while stalking the pace in the maiden event and pulled herself nicely into the race halfway through the turn. Couldn’t figure out the lead change at the top of the stretch, figures it out, then lugs in 2-3 paths. With the decent work tab and a step forward, there’s potential for a repeat 20-1 wins.
  • Honorable Mention: #7 Gea (6-1) Ships in from Saratoga and has the figures that fit on paper. Likely can build upon that last race.
  • Beatable Favorite: #12 Muskoka Dancer (4-1) Is drawn very wide again and will have to work out a flawless trip to win this race. Last out was able to tend to easy fractions while not being able to get the job down. Today won’t be that easy so we can’t side with her here.

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