Race 2: OC $62k 7f (T, outer)
- Best Value: #2 Amniarix (6-1) interesting runner shipping in from Saratoga. Has tried to chase down some good runners last out against the pace flow. There doesn’t project to be much pace so would expect this runner to stay in touch with the field.
Race 6: Ontario Colleen Stakes 8f (T, outer)
Any horse can win this race it looks like.
- Best Value #4 Perserverencia (20-1) Broke the maiden very handily and the light bulb might have went off. The beyer earned is within 5 points of this bunch and there’s no reason this won can’t jump up 8-10 points with a better pace setup and more fitness.
Race 8: OC $40k 11f (T, outer)
- Mots Logical: #6 Juan Pablo (4-1) Continues to get stuck in these slow pace situations. 3rd off the layoff and will be fit. Danny Mac firing at 23% this meet gives confidence. Value line 7/2.
- Best Value: #7 Shangassah (12-1) Finally gets to try turf and looks to be fit. Might get overlooked in the market here. Has enough early speed to stay in touch and might have enough in the tank to close.
- Next Best: #9 Sir Sahib (5-1) Easiest class test today, 3rd off the layoff. First time out was too sharp with Town Cruise being loose on the lead. Last out too stiff of competition. Value line feels around 5-1 with the trainer being as ice cold of late.
Race 9: Dance Smartly 10f (T, outer)
- Most Logical: #6 Mutamakina (9/5) These longer turf events are tricky as the inter-race fractions so greatly impact the final time, thus the final Beyers (imagine walking a marathon and then trying to sprint home, doesn’t matter how good you are your time will still be slow even if you ran 5 minute miles home). This runner for Clement will sit right off the hip of Blame Debbie, up and near the lead, and cruise by late.
- Best Value: #1 Blame Debbie (4-1) Could just run them off their feet. With the limited pace and the third start of the year for this 4 year old , don’t be surprised to see this one in the mix late.
- Bad co-favorite: #5 Etolie (2-1) This feels a little like an afterthought for the connections, with the intermittent starts. I’ll need this one to prove can win at this level before I’m ready to back again.
Race 10: Queens Plate 10f (AW)
- #1 Safe Conduct (5-1) Shipper in from the NYRA circuit. I think this is a “there’s a million bucks why the heck not because the turf competition is too stiff”. I’m going to pass on this one.
- #2 Harlan Estate (12-1) Form is exposed a bit. Interesting to see this runner close into the slowish pace last time and get the win. The trainer jockey combo is a solid pairing. I’m still looking for others.
- #3 Haddassah (10-1) Has received some good trips, has the speed but think will get past as they enter the stretch.
- 4th Choice: #4 Take a Chance (20-1) This is a great value play here for this speedster who had a sneaky bad trip 1st off the bench. Then came back and got the job done setting hot fractions and hanging on for the win. If no one goes with this one, we might have a bomb here.
- #5 H C Holiday (15-1) Does ok at the bottom ranks but will likely be outclassed here. Last out got the dream pocket ground saving all the ground while Avomade had to swing wide entering FT to do all the dirty work. I’m looking for others.
- 3nd Choice #6 Munnyfor Ro (9/2) Ran great with this pace setup and don’t think beat too much out there last out. Looking for others.
- 2nd Choice #7 Riptide Rock (6-1) Ran a bit of a fluke Beyer last out but I think this one found his calling. Even while running against the pace flow, got the job done in the sprint (not an easy thing to do). Stretch outs don’t seem to be a problem for this runner who has routed 4 out of 6 races lifetime.
- #8 Keep Grinding (4-1) Evenly run race last out, could continue to improve. But I don’t like taking runners who have lugging issues unless they’re a bigger price. Last out drifted big time and couldn’t get running right the final 1/16th. What happens when this horse has to run longer, is more tired, and is asked to keep grinding down the lane. Bad favorite here.
- #9 Go Take Charge (30-1) Negative trip note as a two year old get flattered. Hasn’t stepped forward yet in 3 year old campaign.
- #10 Dance Some Mo (12-1) Will be part of the pace but doesn’t project to get the distance.
- 1st Choice #11 Avoman (8-1) The workout tab and the entrant into the Queen’s Plate trial has me thinking Danny Mac has this one ready to roll. The winning effort sandwiched with two 59 works.
- #12 Tidal Forces (12-1) Didn’t have an excuse last out to not get up into the money, there’s better horses in here this one has already faced. The win at WO was a pace setup.
- #13 Derzskii (30-1) Just not fast enough and proved that last out. I can’t imagine is going to get much better with the added distance.
Race 11: Highlander Stakes G1 6f (T, outer)
- Most Logical: #7 Caravel (1-1) I was trying to be creative in here but this one is just too dominate. Will get the better pace setup, sit wide, and let the speeds go. Winning by those margins in sprints is an impressive feat over the last two starts. Expect the win train to keep rolling.
- Best Value: #2 Admiralty Pier (15-1) Needs more early speed but could wire this field if can find it.
Race 12: Mdn 8f (T, inner)
- Best Value: #5 Protect (8-1) Not often do you see 8path in the comment line of the PP’s. Gets a better draw, showed good grit to run on well, and Kimura might wake this one up.
- Consideration: #14 Fascination (9/2) Doesn’t have to beat much, this $225k purchase could have talent.
- Next Best: #6 Confident (4-1) Gets to try out the inner two turns
Race 13: Alw 7.5f (T, inner)
- Best Value #6 Lake Shore Drive (6-1) Will need to see that price stay there for us to get our money down, but continues to improve and might be the best speed in here.
- Next Best #3 Deselator (8-1) Always seems to run a good one over the inner.
- Consideration #4 Mr. Diffley (4-1) Best class, might relish in the tighter inner turf turns.
$100 Betting Strategy
- R2: $10 win #2 Amex
- R6: $5 Persv (20-1)
- R9: $20 #6 Mutami (9/5) – distance fits perfect, will send it to them early
- R9: $20 P3
- 6 w 11 w 7 = $10
- 1 w 1,4,6,7,11 w 7 = $2 ($10)
- R10: $10 win #11 Avoman (8-1)
- R11: $20 Dbl 7 w 5
- R12: $15 #5