Race 3: Soar Free 6.5f (T)
- Best Value: #3 Silent Farewell (6-1) What a replay to watch from the debut. This one had a mess of a trip and couldn’t flip over to right lead in the stretch. Once this horse finally does flip over, he explodes! The 59 workout is significant, too. Moran stays aboard so will be more familiar with this quirky horse.
- Trip Note: 8/1/2021 what a mess of a ride (not jockey’s fault), broke a bit slow, idled in middle of pack, began move, hit traffic, tried making another move around the turn, hit traffic again, patient behind a wall of horses on wrong lead down stretch, popped out and explodes. Huge gallop out.
- Most Logical: #5 First Empire (2-1) On debut was beaten then came back with great gate speed that won the race. Today should see similar. I’m not certain the main other speed on paper (#4 Heaven Street) is actually that fast early but more so has a better cruising speed around the two turn 7.5f (T) configuration at Woodbine. Similar to speed horses moving from the WO inner out to the outer sprints where true speed matters, not just turning ability.
Race 4: MOC $40k 7.5f (T, inner)
- Spot Play: #5 Moonlight Silence (7/2 – I sure hope this price drifts above 5-1 because this is a no bet at the ML odds) Did all the dirty work last out losing ground. Two races back had a terrible trip. All three efforts have been drawn 10 post or greater resulting in significant ground loss. Today gets an inside draw with a race that shapes for a neutral pace (i.e. this horse will be able to establish position early)
Race 5: MC $10k 7f (AW)
- Best Value: #6 Cliffs Head (20-1) Hang with me here on this one. Two back was beaten only a length or so from the likely second choice favorite in today’s race (Royal City Reign). Was shuffled a few times and had to check, tried gliding wide of the heavy favorite at 4/5, against the pace flow, only to flatten in the lane in the blanket finish with 6+ horses. Three back had a pretty bad trip as well. Today, drops to a very easy bunch and will be rolling late. At the very least use in your third and fourth spots for the exotic verticals.
- Trip Note: 7/3/2021 rail stalking pace that melted down, kind of made two moves, one to establish early position, shutoff around turn, and then didn’t have any finish but the pace collapsed around this one anyways.
- Most Logical: #1 Born to Run (5/2) After the long break made a good impression at the higher $15k level. Last out wide but no other big excuses. Today should get a cozy ground saving trip and maybe sit on the lead as we have zero pace in here.
Race 6: Catch a Glimpse Stakes 6.5f (T, outer)
- Best Value: #8 Lois Len (9/2) Has the talent there just didn’t get the trip last out: slow pace and wide. Today should get a bit more flow and get up at the perfect grinder distance of 6.5f on those wide turns.
- Most Logical: #2 Diabolic (2-1) Will get an almost carbon copy of a trip as last time out down on the rail. Placing this horse second in the picks as the value is going to be hammered down to 4/5 I would guess.
Race 8: Singspiel Stakes G3 10f (T, outer)
- Best Value: #3 Woodbridge (10-1) Will be a million to one on the day, even though we saw a carbon copy of this last year: debuts for the year as a dud, comes back and upsets everyone. This horse does his best running at the longer distances There’s clear ability here as this one fired off a 46 work and uses the last race as the prep for this stakes event. Projects to be stalking just a few lengths back off the pace. And speaking of the pace, there’s either dead closers or big speed balls.
- Most Logical: #6 Belichick (3-1) Is best at the longer grinding distances. Last out showed a new dimension with some early speed. Would have won on the day but something bothered this one down the lane, resulting in a big loss of momentum and having to check a bit.
- Defensive Use: #8 Corelli (5/2) Shipping north of the board and will be the class of the field. However, out of the 8 runners JT has shipped to Woodbine, he has only hit the board once out of 8 runners (four of which were 5-1 or less)
Race 9:MOC $25k 5.5f (AW) – “all” ball feels like a good use with our stronger opinion in race 8 at a price.
- Best Value: #4 Tally Road (12-1) Smashed out of the gate on the debut and the jockey had a double handful even down the lane as she continued to pass horses down the lane. In a lackluster bunch, I’ll take this second time trier who clearly was not ready to graduate.
- Other Uses: #3 Thanks Laura (5/2) Easier bunch today and is capable of more than last out
- Other Uses: #1 Stunning River (3-1) has a bit of speed I guess?
Race 10: Seaway 7f (AW )
- Most Logical: #7 Boardroom (7/5) Wasn’t cranked last out and today should be fit and ready to ROLL. Fan boy over here, admittedly.
- Best Value: #5 Toffen (6-1) Simply no speed in this race and the horse gets a panel off.
Race 11: Clm $25k 8f (T, inner)
Love singling in these type of big events, huge value maker
- Most Logical: #2 US Army Corps (5-1) Speed and go. Has done some of his best running going on the inner.
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