Woodbine 8/23/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 8: Clm $25k 8f (T) -> moved to the Tapeta

The natural gate speed for a few of these runners should set things up.

As of 10:50am CST, the scratches of the speeds leave one lone speed horse.

  • Exotic Use: #9 Hard n’ Sweet (8-1) Last out was dull after charging to front and traveling two wide around the track, eventually fading around the far turn. Expect more stamina today and to still be near the front end. The career best Beyer figure was recorded running over this Tapeta, albeit at a lower maiden level class. With all the scratches of speeds, this one is loose.
  • Most Logical/Too Short Price: #1 King Causeway (2-1 but expecting 3/2) Looking at the past races, this one can be really boom or bust. We can make excuses for one of the last two efforts: sloppy track. For today, should get the perfect pace setup that will require minimal race luck. Because of the natural gate speed of #4 Free Speech and #9 Hard n’ Sweet, the pace early on should be honest enough for #1 King Causeway to save all the ground in a second flight of horses. Looks to be the best closer on paper and has the top Beyer Speed figures at the route distance. Value line stands with the morning line around 2-1. Not our top pick due to price drifting down to 3/2 likely.
  • Scratched (was top choice): #4 Free Speech (10-1) This starts with Chuck Willis. This horse tried squaring off on the front end with Chuck Willis, the classy import that we’re a big fan of. After catching my eye with Chuck Willis we dug into the PP’s. Every race this horse goes to the front, gets tired going too fast, and fades. Today Emma-Jayne gets the call for the first time. She has a great clock in her head to time out rides. That should control the natural speed of this one. If she can get away with some moderate fractions early, this third off the layoff should have this longshot going wire to wire. The great post draw should mean clear sailing to catch the rail without using up the horse. Value line stands around 8-1.

Race 9: Mdn $123k 8.5f (EP Turf) -> as of 9am CST still running on EP Taylor

Massive field for these three year olds with half of them coming from the 7/25 race. I provided an extra few thoughts as I believe this is a spread race in the pick four. Lots of favorites trying to find their first win after multiple failures. Door is wide open for a new face.

  • Best Value/Top Choice: #5 Sing for Kitten (15-1) What a debut race doing everything you want to see except the W: broke clean, showed decent speed, got in tight down the lane, kept grinding to finish a good 2 lengths back. Today should have clear sailing up front with minimal speed drawn inside. The second start should build upon that performance on debut. The value line is around 12-1.
  • Next Best: #7 Sport’n Forty (10-1) Based on the shipping and workout tab at Keeneland, I believe Mr. Attfield had bigger hopes for a campaign at Keeneland or somewhere else. Now back home is starting to post workouts that are very fast (46 going 5f on 7/5). I expect this one to be sitting wide and stalking. This horse will have plenty left in the tank considering the 9f events he ran competitively at (based on TimeForm US figures).
  • Horizontal Use: #8 Lili’s Song (6-1 but expect 3-1) Came closing into slow fractions last out in that 7/25 event. Expect a step forward with additional fitness (Casse is 22% 2nd off layoff on turf at WO with n=67). The value line sits around 8-1. We expect the price to plummet around 3-1.
  • Most Logical: #6 Tizlegal (4-1 but could see 2-1) Other Casse runner tries for the fourth time to get the elusive first win. The races 2 and 3 back (7/13 and 5/14) were wide trips and run at a bit higher class with the East Coast turf runners. Today expect a much more comfortable ride with not much speed drawn to the inside. With blinkers going on today, expect to be in good position early. Value line stays hard at 4-1 due to chaos in these larger maiden fields.
  • Exotic Use: #3 Glorianna (20-1) Way back 11 months ago this horse had a good run, closing into neutral fractions, beaten by Rideforthecause (a favorite of ours). The barn is sending out winners left and right with 6 winners over 33 starters. Using that two year old figure, we can project a move forward today.

Race 10: OC $40k 8.5f (AW)

We don’t have a good read on this race as many of the favorites are lukewarm.

  • Most Logical: #7 Mnemba Island (4-1) Closed very well into those neutral fractions and did it with ease. If runs anything close to that number, this one wins. However, will we see an overreaction in the betting market due to the visually impressive race? I predict we’ll see 2-1 on this runner and that feels like a trap considering the poor last out win rate for this trainer (4 out of 39 over last 5 years).
  • Best Value: #8 Call it a Wrap (10-1) The blinker experiment in the last race didn’t work well, so they take them off today. Should be at peak performance today coming third off the bench. Kimura stays aboard for the third start of the 4 year old campaign.
  • [Scratched]: #6 Nestleton Hush (12-1) Natural closer has not been getting pace setups, according to TimeForm US, but has been making nice middle moves that will go unnoticed on the PP’s. For instance, in the last race made one move entering the far turn only to get in tight. Then found some room and made a second move to bring himself into contention. The PP’s will show stagnant running lines: 4 back, 4 back, 3 back, 4 back. If there’s more pace to run into today, which we believe will happen with the likes of #10 Combative, those middle moves should become winning moves. Value line is at 15-1 and we think we’ll see that drift up happen.

Race 11: Alw 8.5 (T) -> move to Tapeta

Trying to judge which ones scratch is tough, but we hope 2,4,5 and 12 stay to push the pace.

As of 10:50am CST, the scratch of the 12 is fine by us for race shape as the 10 will fit the bill for pace pressure outside.  

  • Most Logical: #8 Royal Laser (6-1) So much speed on paper for this race. We love when speeds draw inside and outside. That combo typically means the outside horse is going to gun it to gain forward position, knowing that the inside horse has the easier go of getting that forward position. The resultant of this outside horse trying to outpace the inside horse leads to speed duels. If the #2 #4 and #5 and #12 stay in the body of this race, the pace sets up perfectly for this stalker. Has great numbers over the Tapeta. Husbands just needs to workout a ground saving trip and not get parked wide.
  • Exotic Use: #9 Coleyville (20-1) Cross a line through the turf event last out and the 2020 campaign fits with this bunch. Consider that last race was a workout, this one is cycling back up for a third off the layoff try. Expect a stalking trip.

Leave a Reply

Further reading