Race 7: Ontario Colleen Stakes (G3) 8f (T)
The Casse crew of four horses heads out to take on the heavy favorite in Walk in Marrakesh (6/5).
- Best Value: #5 Diamond Sparkles (8-1) Looking back at the 2019 stakes races is what has us excited about this runner and the 2020 prospects. On debut in North America last year, ran well over the yielding here at Woodbine against the favorite today, Walk in Marrakesh. Everything went well for Walk in Marrakesh on that day: easy lead, saved ground, but couldn’t quicken and get the job done. Changing sights to our runner, was stuck behind slow fractions. When the time came to tip out at the top of the stretch, was too far back but made up good ground and quickened the best. Why take the favorite today when we believe our runner is a step better? As for the other 2019 stakes race, the competition was a bit steep. The runners out of that race (Sweet Melania and Witez) ran a respectable 2nd and 3rd yesterday in the Lake George G3. The two Tapeta tries this year have a few excuses. Cycles up for the third off the bench to be at peak performance. Of the four Casse entrants, the leading jockey takes this mount.
- Loose on the Lead: #4 Two Sixty (9/2) Loose leader candidate here. Showed guts in the last race to set the fast pace according to TimeForm US and grind to the wire a winner. First try on turf today, so the value line for us sits around 6-1.
- Beatable Favorite: #2 Walk in Marrakesh (6/5 line will shorten up to 4/5) The 2019 performance in the Natalma G1 was deceiving. Easy lead, didn’t quicken, gets awarded second. Into 2020, the racing proves that theory out. Even with a few trouble spots, the horse’s performances were lackluster. As for the last start at Keeneland, that feels like the ceiling in terms of figures.
Race 8: Mdn $123k 5.5f (AW)
Fun bunch in this maiden dash event. Watch the tote board on #2 Clarkson, anything below 5-1 and this one could be live based on the morning works, price tag, and connections.
- Top Choice: #3 Neptune’s Pearl (8-1) Looks to be lone speed and distance should fit perfect. Speed duel last out and most all others will want to rate in here.
- Next Best: #1 Karakontie Flyer (7/2) Last June broke from the parking lot in the 14 post and showed little. Today gets back on the surface the workout tab suggests will like better. Could see this one dead sending, but she needs to break cleanly.
- Beatable Favorite: #6 Fabiolla(2-1 but expect 4-1) The So Cal invader doesn’t scream speed here and that turn comes up quick, likely yielding a wide trip on the taxing turns.
Race 9: OC $40k 12f (T)
Shaping up to be a match race for this marathon turf event.
- Top Choice: #6 Theregoesjojo (3-1) Figures should continue to improve for this third off the bench try. Past racing suggests there’s more. Strange race in the last where most of horses that hit the board were in a second peloton 5-7 lengths back off the pace. Hoping the race today is run with a more honest pace for this one to stalk.
- Next Best: #2 Artisitco (2-1) Almost a carbon copy of our top choice: 3rd off the layoff, strong back figures, should be closer to the pace. Very difficult to split these two.
- Best Value: #8 Kitten’s Boy (12-1) The last event (claimer $25k) wasn’t a rollover bunch with many out of the race running competitive numbers. I like that this one gets tested for the marathon as that could be the x-factor to get this horse into the trifecta. Draw a line through the 7/9 race as the distance was too short, two back was washed off the turf, and last out was finishing on well. Could catch a nice price at anything over 10-1 for us.
Race 10: MC $15k 6.5f (AW)
Spread race for us in this bunch.
- Best Value: #3 Ericka’s On Board (20-1) Eased last out, but has been showing well in morning. On debut flashed speed which is all we need today to grab the rail and get loose. Maiden’s don’t love to pass so don’t undervalue a loose leader in maiden events.
- Logical: #5 Attenionseeker (10-1) Solid figures, blinkers, class relief, good foundation
- Logical: #7 Shangai Kimmy (4-1) Another speed who should be near it and has the fitness foundation
- Beatable: #8 Simply Zoomer (3-1) Against – doesn’t look to want full 6.5,