Race 4: Algoma Stakes 7f (AW)
- Most Logical: #6 Lorena (6-1) Most likely winner on the entire card. Will get to send, press the issue and go on with it. Last out was going too far against Emmeline and Il Malocchio, who confirmed form, running first and second. Two back set the pace and was pressed by #8 Owen’s Tour Guide, dispatched that foe and then had to reengage to fend off a late trying Astrological. Boulanger will send and this will be an easy pay check for connections.
Race 6: Elgin Stakes 7f (AW)
- Most Logical: #1 Secret Reserve (2-1) Stalked the slowish pace along the rail last out and blew by his competition. Backs that performance up with a bullet workout coming in here. Value line is around 4/5.
- Next Best: #7 Dragon’s Brew (4-1) Stellar beginning to two year old campaign and then things came off the rails in the last two starts. Debuted in 2021 as a complete clunker of a race, draw a line through that one. Ran over the good going on the grass and stalked along the rail to get up and get the victory. Important to note the TimeFormUS shows this pace as red and thus the horse was flattered, however, I think the entire field started running those fractions together and created a slow finish late in the race (i.e. the horse didn’t get a setup). Last out tried 5f on the grass and too sharp. Today gets back to the right distance and we’ll see if synth is where this one wants to be. It’s make or break time for this one’s campaign. Value line around 6-1.
Race 7: Mdn 10f (T) – many knocks on the heavy favorite that will be less than 2-1 and found one horse we like to be finish late
- Best Value: Runningforcover (8-1) I think Hernandez wants that ride back last out: parked this one wide around both turns into the teeth of a fast early part of the race. Put in a NF effort the final 1/16th down the stretch and kept on terms. Emma-Jayne gets aboard and knows how valuable ground loss can be in these long events. With minimal pace in here, should tuck on the rail as the two horses to her inside are going to drop back, leading to a comfortable lead and rail run around the full 10f. Value line around 6-1.
Race 8: Muskoka $200k 6.5f (AW) – fading the likely favorite #6 Forest B as this one got an easy trip and no one ran early with this one. The 6.5f will not allow that to happen. If our second choice ends up north of 3-1, that will be our top choice.
- Best Value: #4 Fun Cool (10-1) Ran a weak Beyer on debut but will not hold that against her as those 4.5f races are a bit wonky. Today gets a dream setup with the outside favorite horse #6 Forest B will have to send and so too will #2Thatsitthatsall. Should setup nicely for a stalk and pounce type of run going the extra 6.5f distance.
- Next Best: #2 Thatsitthatsall (6-1) Ran her heart out on debut making only one mistake at the pop of the gates, allowing the favorite (#6 Forest B) to get over to the rail and get loose. Today you have to imagine a step up in performance and Johnson will be instructed to just send. Value line around 3-1.
Race 9: OC $40k 6.5f (T, outer) – Drexler horses are being over-bet and will be fading this one.
- Most Logical: #6 Four Aces High (3-1) Has run three competitive races and today the distance fits perfect. Last out was too sharp and moved into a hot pace, two back ran into some traffic issues down the lane, and three back made a wide aggressive move. Value line stands around 3-1.
- Best Value: #10 Goldmine Cat (10-1) Continues to improve and looks to want the longer distances as is a grinding type late in the late. Was in these class waters last year but that was the three year old campaign with some terrible wide trips.
Race 10: Simcoe Stakes 6.5f (AW) – no strong opinions other than the topic of the market might be best. If there’s decent value in the exacta, might not be a terrible play 1,3,7 boxed exacta, weighting your favorite on top.
- Most Logical: #3 Ironstone (9/2) You have to imagine this one is going to finally put together the morning works with the performances in the afternoon. Last workout was an absolute bullet. Hoping they change tactics and just send to the lead.
- Next Best: #1 Chairman Bob (3-1) Passed every single horse closing well. Should continue to improve and at the distance of 6.5f, would imagine The Bob will stay more in touch with the field.
- Consideration: #7 Summer Sunset (7/2) Cross a line through the start against tough stakes company as this one blew the break. Will be stalking and trying to make a middle move. Think this one will be best for 2nd or 3rd in verticals as will be rolling but ground loss might become an issue.
Race 11: Clm 7.5k 7f (T, outer) – top four of the market look to be very close and hard to separate
- Best Value: #4 Forester’s Destiny (6-1) Looks to be sitting on a big race today, third off the bench, and has done some of his best runner over the inner. Plenty of pace drawn inside so should get a clean inside trip stalking those speeds.