Woodbine 9/4/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 7: Alw 6.5f (AW) – bad favorite in here and will take a lot of money

  • Best Value: #4 Hard Street (5-1) Has the most speed from the inside and the only pace pressure is coming from the far outside gates. There’s a story to tell that there’s still upside here: debuted trying to keep pace with stakes horses, two back won, last out the turf experiment was a flop with the much tougher bunch. Should get an easy lead here.
  • Next Best: #10 Hazelbrook (4-1) After the long layoff, the youngest horse in here will look to take another step forward which doesn’t seem out of question. Wide last out and overcame neutral fractions, could be even better at the 6.5f distance.
  • Bad Favorite: #8 Imagery (2-1) Form is exposed and our top two choices have already run higher final TimeForm US figures. I wouldn’t be surprised if the price drifts up to 3-1 on this runner.

Race 8: OC $40k 7f (T, outer)

  • Most Logical: #8 Pound Green (3-1) There’s no speed in here and will have a nice position early for Emma-Jayne. Last out closed into the slow pace well enough and should only be getting better.
  • Next Best: #5 Long Pond (6-1) Continues to improve in each start and had a bit of a bad trip in the maiden breaker, closing into hot part of race wide, wrong lead. If can get things figures out has a good chance.
  • Defensive Use: #1 Decimator (5/2) Hard to use being down on the inside and will need to find a trip. With the limited pace will likely be 5-6L back early. I could either see this runner being a non-finish effort 5th or a clear sailing winner.

Race 9: Mdn ~8f (AW) – strong play on the long shot but will be backing up with the other two logicals. Watch for #4 Gina to drift up.

  • Best Value: #1 Classic Queen (10-1) Finally draws inside the 9 post and should have a ground saving trip, something this horse has not been familiar with. Last out circled the field trying to go 2-3w against the pace flow. Jockey had this one wrapped up tight at the 1/8th pole and was still passing horses. Could be sitting on a big effort here.
  • Most Logical: #6 Anyquist (3-1) Lone runner to already have gone two turns. Will be speed up near the lead and should have a bit more endurance coming second off the bench.
  • Next Best: #5 Loaded Vixen (6-1) Assuming this one was always meant to go longer with two sharp 5f workouts and the NF effort in the last event. Should be forward and have a chance. Value line at 5-1.

Race 10: Clm $15Kn3L 8.5f (T, outer one turn)

  • Best Value: #3 Rapunzel’s Dream (7/2) Tries the outer surface for this closer style. I like the layoff debut performance at the flat mile on the outer. That should translate nicely to this drop in class and inside post position.
  • Most Logical: #5 Cool Society (3-1) Does not like the inner turf turns nor two turns. Has a grinder style ability and was able to get the win two back against the pace flow. Value line is around 3-1 and afraid this price will drift down due to class drop and proven abilities.
  • Best Value: #2 Storm Vision (12-1) Tries the outer for the first time and curious to see how this experiment goes.

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