Race 2: OC $40k 9f (T, outer one turn)
- Spot Play: #2 Meyer (3-1) This race shaped perfect for this horse and with the full 9f and the tucked in ground saving trip near the lead, will make sure to have clear sailing late. Most the other contenders in here are reliant on a pace setup to unfold upfront and collapse so they can close. Value line at 5/2
Race 7: Mdn ~8f (AW) – if this horse wins, we’re going to have a day, no other horses interest me
- Single: #4 Rum Cup (10-1) Last out had a nasty trip and still ran on fairly well. Broke inward and lost all position down on the rail, was tucked tight on the rail and took a bad step, causing 6 or so strides to be erratic, dropping all they way back into the mid-pack (slow pace so this was a guaranteed a loss before they even reached the turn), and finally ran well through the lane to get back on terms with #3 Stowaway (3-1). So why should we side with a favorite who had such an easy trip when compared to the heroism of this runner. Value line is 5-1.
Race 8: Alw 10f (T, outer) – an old favorite I have been chasing
- One Last Time, then I’ll never talk about this horse again: #9 British Royalty (10-1) All sorts of problems for this one in various trips, but at a certain point you have to consider this one made all the problems for himself (hence this comment above that this is the last backing this one). Last out tried to take back and make one massive run, which failed as a tactic. Today gets a soft bunch, looks to want longer, and continues to sneakily improve. I like the new mount in Contreras.
- Best Value: #4 Win D’Oro (6-1) Don’t think we’ll see close to 6-1 and closer to 3-1 range. Last out was against the race flow and didn’t have a big chance to run until final 1/16th. My trip note says simply, “would give another look.” Casse and Barber are savvy connections, they’re likely trying to offset cost of this six figure purchase with bigger prize pools at WO. This horse is an absolute closer, but I think the grinding style of the outer will suite this runner perfectly. Value line is at 4-1.
- Next Best: #3 Rogue Affair (3-1) Muddy form with only 5 starts and 3 of those starts washed off the turf. The debut on turf was good enough, this one might get loose and have finish. The bullet workout last out is a good sign.
Race9: Mdn 5.5f (AW)
- Most Logical: #3 Neptune’s Pearl (5/2) Don’t think was the best horse coming out of the last race on August 14th, but has extra fitness with the 2nd start of the year and get’s half a panel off. No other pace pressure will be felt. Watch how quick this horse gets out of the gate. In the last had a 3L advantage and would expect the same today. Value line at evens.
- Next Best: #5 Fire Emoji (6-1) Cool horse name. Last out ran the winning race traveling widest of all, making the move around the turn to get into position, only to flatten out in the final 1/16th. Wish there was more pace in here so we could capitalize on the value, but we just don’t see it happening.
Race 10: Mdn $10k 6.5f (T, outer) – no strong opinions in this massive field
- Most Logical: #8 Born to be Good (3-1) If all the speed stays signed on in this event, Born to Be Good should finally get the setup this one needs with pace upfront to come running late. Last two races over the synth tried making up ground in a slow race and we’ll excuse. The effort in the 2021 debut was fantastic and should serve as enough foundation figure-wise that this horse can be backed. Value line is around 6-1 and doubt we’ll see that.