Woodbine 9/11/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 3: Seagram Cup Stakes 8.5f (AW)

  • You’re going to get 1/9 on Mighty Heart in this spot. If any price at 3/5 shows up, that feels like good value.

Race 7: Vice Regent Stakes 5f (T, inner) – the presence of the 1, 3 and 4 horse will make it tough for any speed horse to work out a trip

  • Most Logical: #8 Forest Fortune (4-1) Will have an even better setup than last with all the inside speed. Sits the wide trip and should be able to easily overcome this bunch. Cold single, value line at 4/5.
  • Bad Favorite: #7 City Boy (2-1) I’m willing to bet against this one at a short price as everyone will see the household names like Caravel and Silent Poet in the last event. But it’s important to notice that this horse runs flops over the inner. His grinder style needs those wide sweeping turns to establish position. Expect this horse to try and go early out of the gate, sit stalking and not have enough gas late.

Race 8: Alw 8.5f (AW)

  • Best Value: #7 Finalist (10-1) This horse has showed ability but hasn’t had race luck. Today’s pace projects easy enough, allowing this runner to make one stalking go at it and have enough to close late. Value line at 5-1.
  • Next Best: #3 Bode’s Tipsy (6-1) Three year old came out in the 2021 season running much better than before. Lasix for the first time and could be anything. Has enough early speed to stay in touch with this field. Fired a heck of a workout last time running 58 flat over the turf.
  • Most Logical: #1 Frosted Over (2-1) Had a bit of a trip last out. Ran a fantastic maiden breaker two back and would expect to get back to that foundation and build from there.

Race 9: Alw 5f (T, inner)

  • Most Logical: #1 Take it Easy (3-1) Best figures and has plenty of speed drawn to the outside. Ground saving stalking trip and have plenty of gas left to pass by this group.
  • Next Best: #4 Magical Soul (6-1) Might be loose here. Figure fits and still upside left for 3 y/o coming 2nd off the layoff.

Race 10: MOC 6.5f (T, outer)

  • A/Best Value: #1 Gospel Hill (10-1) Love this horse in this spot without pace pressure. Two back after the long layoff looked to jump a shadow around the turn, then the jockey wrapped up the horse. If the tight turns were the issue, the wider one configuration on the outer should fit this runner. Last out made the early move into the hot pace going wide: the blanket finish was with all horses ahead and to the inside in through the turn. Value line is 5-1 on this runner.
  • B/Considerations: #7 Careless Heiress (15-1) Cuts back in distance and might be one who can get up there for a piece of it.
  • x/Considerations: #9 Know How (3-1) Had all the race luck and was not finishing last out, so why side with favoritism stretching out.
  • x/Considerations: #4 Fionnuala (4-1) Improving type but doesn’t have the quicken and the trainer is ice cold.
  • x/Considerations: #5 Melrose Start (6-1) Rail ride that was a dream last out and the figure is flattered.

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