Race 8: Toronto Cup 8f (T, outer)
- Most Logical: #1 Riptide Rock (5/2) Showed us that this runner can get the full distance moving back to the sprints. Is a grinder type who likes to stalk and make up ground along turns. With the lack of pace signed on, should be able to stay much more in touch with the field. In the last race, this runner got pinched back and was dead last as they came out the backstretch. I like that this horse debuted on this course and got a win. Value line is at 5/2.
- Best Value: #3 War Bomber (20-1) Ran a great one over the inner course in the claiming ranks. There’s still upside left with the first start for new trainer McKnight. To enter this horse in a stakes race 1st after the claim must mean the connections see value, too. Could be a pace presence in this one turn event.
- Defensive Use: #Gretsky The Great (2-1) Could be the lone speed here or stalking the speeds. The tactical early advantage may just have this race won. However, I don’t have on top due to the wide draw and all but exposed form so far.
Race 9: Belle Mahone 8.5f (AW) – not excited for any horse at the top of the market so searching for a price
- Most Logical: #2 No More Lady (6-1) Shipping coming in from Colonial where the form is holding up well with four horses exiting that race have ran in stakes and hit the board. Has tactical speed and will stay in touch with the field, might even lead. The solid bullet workout last out signals this one is ready. Figures fit and trainer is firing well, too. Fair value at 3-1.
- Best Value: #3 Saratoga Vision (15-1) Absolutely need to squint hard to see this one a winner but that’s why we’re getting a big price. I’m eye is drawn to the Selene G3 back on July 25 last year where the TimeForm figure earned fits perfect with this bunch. Four year old still has a bit of upside left. Last out ran a heck of a race behind Ballymore Star and Barkin, loosing the path late and still rallying on well.
Race 10: Alw 5f (T, inner) – I could make an argument for any of these but will side with just two value types
- Best Value: #1 Four Aces High (6-1) Make a great move last out into hot part of race to gain position around the far turn. Today projects a little more pace and should get a better setup. This one should be rolling late and save all the ground until the top of the stretch. Fair value is 4-1.
- Most Logical: #4 Lucky Score (3-1) Ran a huge race coming off the long layoff. Should be even better today.
Race 11: Clm $10k 6f (AW) – single here for me
- Most Logical: #9 Hitters Park (2-1) Gets to go the full 6f, a distance where this horse wants to be. Has a stalking style that will fit perfect here: drawn wide and speed inside. Many of the inside speeds will fade under the pressure and this horse should have clear path to get the win.