Woodbine 9/18/2021 – by Drew Coatney

Race 3: Canadian G2 9f (T, outer one turn)

  • Best Value #2 Our Secret Agent (9/2) Without a clear standout figure-wise, often I find myself looking for upside types. This one has continued to run good races, being beaten twice by Boardroom, a Grade One filly. Two back faced Abscond and Jolie Olympica and that form is coming back useful. Getting to the tactics, this runner contains enough speed to stay in touch with any leader. I think this one will like the longer distance and should have something left. Connections are sharp and wouldn’t send this one into the fire without having a chance at hitting the board.
  • Most Logical: #3 La Dragontea (9/5) Galloping type that will be near the lead early and have the stamina to go all day. Expect this price to shorten up.
  • Underneath Use: #4 Barkin (12-1) Strange things happen in small fields. Today this runner gets that small field and will be making a move around the turn late. Last out was able to upset Ballymore Star by making a move around the all weather track. That style will fit perfectly for this runner who will begin launching a bid as the enter the even wider sweeping turn. Watch for this runner to range up at the top of the stretch and get into contention. The key will be if the pace developed up front enough, this one might be able to get his nose down first.

Race 9: Pattison Canadian International G1 12f (T, outer, two turns) – Dessert Encounter goes for the 3-peat?

  • Single: #2 Walton Street (8/5) They’re bringing in the flying jockey to ride in this million dollar race. The horse has great tactical speed, highest TF figures and gets Lasix for the first time.
  • Underneath use: #8 English Conqueror (15-1) Is a late developing type that continues to improve. Last out against Corelli, traveled widest of all tipping for home and finished a good second, finding best strides late. Two back found a yielding surface, three back tried the AW and that didn’t go over so well, and four back during the 2021 debut was too sharp of a distance trying to gun down the speedy horse in Town Cruise. This horse just might want to run all day. If that pace develops with Walton Street, Belichick, Primo Touch, etc., this could setup nicely for this runner to get a piece of it.
  • Defensive Use: #1 Corelli (4-1) Ground saving trip sets up perfect. I like the upside of the second choice #8.
  • Beatable: #3 Dessert Encounter (3-1) Is a step slower coming into this race on TimeForm figures. The nine year old might be over the hump?

Race 10: Woodbine Mile G1 8f (T, outer) – runner by runner look

  • #1 Town Cruise (20-1) Dream lead last time blazing the way for Olympic Runner. All logicals in that King Edwards were trip and pace compromised.
  • #2 Olympic Runner (10-1) Dream rail ride last out with the pace flow. Not fast enough against this bunch.
  • Best Value #3 March to the Arch (8-1) Connections were not worried about winning the King Edwards last out, they want to win this race, the $1M purse. But Husbands would like that ride back in the Kind Edwards as this runner was against the pace had was dodging fading horses down the stretch. Has tactical ability to sit off the pace or be closer. Casse will have this runner ready to fire.
  • #4 Ride a Comet (5-1) Has not proven to be able to run at this caliber. Might hit the board but not using on top.
  • Most Logical/Top Selection: #5 Set Piece (5/2) Didn’t look comfortable at all in the last start in the first few yards, then had to wait on those tight SAR turns to establish position. Will have all the room and ability to make up ground around the turn with the wide sweeping ones we have on the outer. Is ready for a huge effort. The jockey change helps as Rosario knows how to navigate turf courses (see his KD resume).
  • #6 Change Control (20-1) Overall figures are just too light. The one time this runner was favored over 10-1 this year, he horse got a brilliant trip.
  • #7 Raging Bull (2-1) Feels like an inbetweener type: too close to the pace but not enough quicken to come from off of it. Looking elsewhere as this 6 year old has found a few too many ways to lose lately.
  • #8 Avie’s Flatter (15-1) Really don’t like the trip this one will get from the far outside post. Needs to get really lucky here and will likely get burned up with the pace pressure in the race traveling wide.
  • #9 Duke of Hazzard (15-1) Don’t have enough intel other than TF figures are light. Not interested.
  • Longshot Use #10 Space Traveler (12-1) Comically slow pace in the Mr D (aka AP Million) and gets second start on North American soil. I could see this one jumping up and getting a piece. Like to see back class with runners like Alcohol Free

Race 11: Clm $40k 6.5f (AW) – narrowed to two runners with one longshot 

  • Most Logical: #8 Speed Hanns (4-1) Barber/Casse 4yr old with upside still left. Strung two nice efforts together at this distance in the early summer and took time off. Workouts look sharp and Kimura stays aboard. I would imagine a wide tactical run into the first turn and try to blow by horses at the 1/8th pole. Value line is 5/2 on this runner.
  • Next Best: #4 Solidify (7/2) Even against terrible pace flows in the pace two starts, has run some impressive races. Hard not to use when will get a ground saving trip and speed is drawn outside.
  • Best Value: #7 Silent Jimmie (12-1) Easy story to tell that this runner has not seen the right setup all year: wrong surface, wrong pace setup, etc. Today should get a big more clear running room drawing wide and gets a bit of drop in class. Is in for the tag with a jockey change, so maybe they know they’re live here.

Race 12: OC $40k 6.5f – Super Hi Five Carryover of $300k+

  • Most Logical: #1 Speed Way (10-1) First time this speed horse will be drawn inside. If can get away should be able to kick clear as they turn for home. Looks to want all of the 6.5f.
  • Next Best: #3 Frosted Icing (12-1) Had zero chance last out sprinting over the turf. That steady around the turn was significant and very much against the pace flow. Two back tried running with Riptide Rock who turns out to be a serious horse. Today’s group should serve a bit lighter and the 6.5f could be just what this horse wants to grind from a stalking position.
  • Defensive Use: #10 Flying Curlin (6-1) Gets the class relief and a strong workout in between.
  • Longshot: #4 Candy Load (20-1) Best figures on TimeForm US, so not sure why this runner is at 20-1. Needs a bit of a pace collapse but you’ll be sure to get paid with the price of this horse.
  • Longshot: #11 Tycooon (8-1) Has tried to come from way off of it and from up on the lead. Today would imagine a tactical ride and close with aplomb.

Betting Strategy Goals Disclaimer

  • Have money, not looking for life changing scores
  • Have action throughout the card
  • Always feel comfortable
  • Have 3-4 plays / 80% of money

$100 Wagering Strategy

  • Race 1: OC $40k ($5)
    • $5 Win Bet #3 Old Secrets (20-1) Open event, ran good 2 back and might get a similar setup, last out can’t explain, enough pace
  • Race 3: Canadian – comes down to 2 horses ($20) – fading Merv now, nothing exciting there
    • $10 Win #2 Our Secret Agent
    • $6 3 w 2 (imagine we get between 11 and 13-1)
    • $2 2,3 w 4
  • Race 9: Pattison Canadian ($40) – just pace setter grinder
    • $0 Win Bet #2 Walton Street (8/5) – assuming the price is too short to play we’ll look shift investment to 2 w 1,8 exacta and doubles
    • $10 EX #2 w 1, 8
    • $20 Dbl 2 w 5
  • Race 10: The Mile ($20) – Top form, top jockey, excited to see with wide turns run.
    • $20 Win #5 Set Piece (5/2, oddschecker showing 4-1)
  • Race 11: Clm $40k ($15)
    • $15 Win #8 Speedy Hanns (4-1) – continues to show overcoming adversity and should be able to build off those efforts

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