Race 8: Simcoe Stakes 6.5f (AW)
If this was a 6f event, I would be searching for the speed. The tricky 6.5 distance today could open the door for some closers with this untested 2 year old.
- Top Choice/Best Bet: #7 Dragon’s Brew (3-1 but expect 3/2) Was the beneficiary of an early move by his 7/5 competition in the last race that blew up the race flow, allowing for a wide stalking trip. Down the lane was a bit green, too (hoping that goes away). Today should be a carbon copy of that last race: pace, stalk wide, close on. Robert Tiller is 30% winners of last race (n=50) and the barn has been on fire with 38% in the past month. Value line stands at 3/2.
- Best Value: #6 Perfect Crime (12-1) On debut looked very good making a decent run into slower fractions. Last out got pinched at the start (not included in the running lines) and didn’t like the kick back. Today will get plenty of pace to run into with all these sprinter types showing coded red early fractions based on TimeForm US. The blinkers going on today might be an attempt to help with kick back, we’ll see.
- Beatable: #10 Forest Survivor (7/2) Benefited from the big class relief in the last out. Hasn’t proven can get the tricky 6.5f distance yet. The wide draw is tough with all the other speeds in here.
Race 9: Muskoka Stakes 6.5f (AW)
This event is going to be driven by trip notes as the group of fillies looks pretty murky overall.
- Top Choice: #3 Flawless Pink (4-1 but will be 2-1 or less) Stalked the slow pace and closed well, traveling widest of all. Found a great late stride. The extra half panel should only help this horse’s cause. Stein stays aboard to pilot what projects to be a ground saving trip with the inside draw.
- Best Value: #6 Leave it With Me (15-1) Broke a bit tardy in a massive 12 horse field. The race was over before the first turn. The jockey realized that, tried to push an early move from far back (8-10 lengths), only to be blocked by the peloton. The finish was lackluster intentionally by the jockey, saving the horse for the next battle. With the addition of blinkers to get out of the gate, should have a better chance today. Value line stands at 12-1.
- Beatable Favorite #9 For My Elbi (3-1) Broken cleanly but don’t believe had any real speed there. Was the only one in contention late as the rest of the pack bunched up, causing trips for others. Didn’t finish on well. Value line stands around 8/1.
Race 10: Algoma Stakes 7f (AW)
We’re going to live by the outside horses, hoping the inside speeds burn up at the taxing 7f event.
- Best Value: #5 Cool Society (6-1) In the race two back where she squared off against three others in here today, she won a winning race. Traveled wide around the turn making what looked to be a winning move, but was too taxing. The eventual first and second runners had a much easier go of it. Ran a very solid third and should be upgraded a few lengths considering was trying to close into neutral fractions the leaders set (#8 Silent Causeway). If Moran can gain decent position, this one is very live at a nice price.
- Top Choice: #9 Wake Up Maggie (7/2) Love this draw and that three speeds inside. Even if the pace dottles up front, she has proven she can overcome slow pace setups (see last race). Last out was a bit bottled up and finally punched through to be the winner; however, the rail ride likely flattered that move. Value line sits at 3-1.
Race 11: Elgin Stakes 7f (AW)
What an eye crossing race where we could make a case for most of these to win.
- Most Logical: #3 Have a Souper Day (9/2) Can hang around with solid pace calls throughout the 7f event. Should show speed even more today with addition of blinkers.
- Best Value: #11 Lakeside Park (20-1) Hoping we’ll see a glimmer of the 2019 campaign here. Plenty of speed and fade types should setup a nice stalking trip. The blinkers come off in a likely attempt to shake things up. The morning works indicate there’s untapped potential. Value line stands at 15-1.
- Beatable Favorite: #4 Forester’s Fortune (5/2) Will likely send with speed out of the gate. Doesn’t look to want any part of the 7f as 6f feels like the ceiling in terms of distance.
