Woodbine 9/13/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 8: MC $15k 6f (AW)

Tough bunch to separate so we’re going to look for a value.

  • The Favorite [Not Top Pick]:  #2 Born To be King (5/2) 11 tries and still coming up short; however yielding 6 podium finishes in those tries. Today gets a much better post draw than last out which caused a huge 5 wide sweeping move to try and catch the loose leader. Two back had a slow pace in front to try and close into, but left too much work to do coming down the stretch. Three back stalked the pace and couldn’t close.  The previous three races highlight our problem for this likely short priced horse, everything has to go perfectly for this one to win the race – pace in front, work out a trip that doesn’t lose too much ground, and hope the horses on the front end don’t get brave and go wire-to-wire. We’ll fade.
  • Best Value: #3 Landry (15-1) Last out looked very professional. I know the horse lost by seven lengths, but based on the jockey’s behavior I don’t believe the goal was to win. The goal was likely to get that first time starter familiar with racing (getting out of the gate, crossing the wire, etc.). Today gets Lasix and Husbands stays aboard. The recent strong work gives confidence they’re giving this horse every chance to get the victory. Savy tactics by this barn.
  • Most Logical: #10 Pardsy (5-1 but would imagine that will shorten up to 3-1) Came here from the NYRA circuit one race back and now drops all the way down the rungs to the $15k ranks. This $375k purchase for Reddam is for sale after just three starts. The price tag today is 4% of the total sale price last spring. I cautiously say this is “logical”. After only three starts, I get the feeling the connections are giving up on this investment in a very dramatic and abrupt fashion.

Race 9: MOC $40k 8.5f (T) – one turn

Looks to be a spread race here as we don’t see a clear favorite that has an advantage

  • Most Logical: #3 Freedom Machine (12-1) Has already run two competitive turf events, recording mid 80’s TimeForm US final pace figures. Drawing down on the inside today should yield an easy trip, grabbing the rail with the front pack and hoping has more left in the tank when they turn for home.
  • Best Value: #7 Hoity Toity (10-1) Three year old for Roger Attfield gets blinkers for the first time after two attempts to get a win. Interesting this homebred is owned by Attfield as well, so you have to imagine he is giving extra attention to this one. On debut at a sprint distance showed some decent speed but faded. Last out ran the 9f event on the Tapeta, again giving way. Today I expect that habit will be broken after setting that foundation of fitness with those two races. I hope this one sits in the front pack and out of trouble.
  • Next Best: #10 She’s Got Moves (6-1) Easily could be the pace setter in this race. Ran a winning race last out and expect similar today.
  • Beatable Favorite: #2 Shedat (3-1) Looks to be the clear pace setter but will has not been proven can sustain. Today will have to 0.5f longer than previous races. Expect a speed and fade approach.

Race 10: OC $40k 7f

This race looks to be quiet chalked full of speed types; tricky when dealing with 7f distance. 

  • Best Value: #4 November Fog (12-1) Has a great muddy form that we like to see when searching for value plays. Last out tried to tangle with the top fillies in the Woodbine Oaks, which makes sense. Ending the 2019 season, this horse was putting up competitive figures against the likes of Curlin’s Voyage. Two back was against the race flow, setting hot fractions and hanging around late as all closers moved up. Today should get to the front easily enough and sustain the pace with the sprint distance.
  • Most Logical: #3 A Bridge too far (6-1) This Gary Barber owned horse is no stranger to long layoffs and coming out to win. With all the pace signed on, I project this one to sit behind the speeds and make one run. Top jockey Hernandez gets the mount today.
  • Beatable Favorite: #6 Silent Causeway (1-1) Has posted a few low 80’s Beyer speed figures per DRF Formulator. However, the latest race, with the 81 Beyer speed figure, was a dream setup by stalking the hot pace and closing well. We don’t believe those figures are really 15 points ahead of the rest of this bunch. It should be noted this horse failed at less than even money odds in two similar sprint events. I suspect we’ll see the same today.

Race 11: MOC $40k 8.5f (T) – one turn

Great event to end an amazing weekend for the Queen’s Plate. Safe trips to all.

  • Best Value: #3 Ron’s Gizmo (20-1, expect 12-1) Third start to cycle up on form for this massive price of a horse. Gets a big drop in class today (last outs winner entered Queen’s Plate yesterday) and a better post draw. What caught our eye was the debut run, closing ground into very neutral to slow fractions (not coded blue on TimeForm US). He found his best strides late, gaining ground on horses. Two things are important to note. First, the horses passed were not “tiring types” but still running for minor placings. Second, the pp’s show 6 lengths back, but this one easily was spotted 8+ lengths midway through the turn. Today should get a nice stalking trip and expect to sit second flight for majority of race until tipping for home.
  • Most Logical: #4 Pound Green (3-1) Came up a bit short on debut. This owned and trained by horse for Roger Attfield gets Lasix for the first time and the right surface (debut got rained off turf). I expect a bit more stamina and should sit a stalking trip right off the hip of any horse that decided to gun it for the lead (likely to come from the outside posts).
  • Next Best: #9 Thy Kingdom (6-1) First time Lasix, second start, top jockey stays aboard. Pretty straight forward for this upside type. Last race looked to have everything go wrong: bad start and no pace to close into. Today should be more honestly run and the wide draw means Stein should be able to steer clear of any trouble.
  • Horizontal Use: #10 Irving (4-1) Will be used on all my tickets as this one has the look of a wire-to-wire winner. Running competitive numbers and had the bad pace setup last out.

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