Woodbine 9/19/2020 – Coatney Review

Race 7: Singspiel Stakes (G3) 10f (T)

Great betting race with value to be had.

 Best Value: #2 Count Again (20-1) Yes, watching the last 50 yards is perplexing how this horse doesn’t pass Woodbridge. So we have to dive into the PP’s to understand. In that last race, Count Again was trying to close into miserably slow fractions, being forced to make a 4 furlong sustained bid while Woodbridge got an easy, trotting lead. Looking two races back, had a terrible trip. Jockey sent the horse out of the gate as if it was a 16f event (it was a one turn mile race that day), letting the field spot the horse by 10ish lengths and never established position. Turning for home, nothing went right. Angled inside, bottled up. Angled outside, horse can’t carry a straight line. While all of this is going on, the horse is the only one making up significant ground late. Now we go three back at Tampa. Closed into slow fractions and showed great tactical ability, albeit against a lesser bunch. Dive all the way back to Keeneland in October, again closed into slow fractions and won very impressively.

Today this horse is guaranteed more pace up front (we’re assuming Skywire and Tiz a Slam are in – Admiralty Pier running in WO Mile). With this second off the layoff attempt (only other time done at Keeneland), the ceiling is unknown. Considering the Keeneland race was won with a 83 Beyer and 100’s TimeForm, I can imagine a big step forward with that foundation set. Expect to see this horse rolling very late when the pace heats up and cross our fingers there’s no swerving down the lane.

Most Logical: #4 Standard Deviation (8-1) Stein gets the mount for HOF trainer Graham Motion. The four year old $450k purchase has no problem staying at the distance. Today should get a bit more pace to run into. Only hesitation is the barn is ice cold past two months winning 6% clip with 96 starters.

Race 8: OC $40k 6f (AW)

Wild non-winners of 2 optional claiming event. Anything could happen, spread race for us.

  • Best Value: #8 Podgora (20-1) Continues to get unfavorable trips. In the last three events, the jockey has realized the horse was too far back and dropped anchor to not use up the horse. In your PP’s the Beyer Figures will be depressed significantly because of these non-finishing efforts. Gets to face non-winners of two, so the class level gets a bit easier today than the open claiming company. The pace projects to present an opening on the rail in the second flight for this one to talk the speed and fade types. Value line is firm at 15-1.
  • Next Best #6 Takota (8-1) Lone speed in this race and should get the break on this bunch. Maybe a wire to wire result at a good price.
  • Other Consideration: #1 Old Secrets (6-1) Got a bit of a pace setup last out when getting the win, but earned a nice TimeForm US figure of 84 on the grass. With the addition of Lasix and a bit of a break, this one could come fresh and fire.
  • Other Consideration: #7 Silver Dahlia (3-1) Closed into a slow pace last out on the turf. Hernandez stays aboard. Needs to work out a trip though from the wide post and the deep closer style of this one.
  • Beatable Favorite: #2 Mrs Del (7/2) Has to prove to me that wants the full 6f vs. the 5.5 where got first victory. Faces winners for first time and value line stands around 8-1.

Race 9: The Woodbine Mile(G1) 8f (T)

Many great story lines for this year’s Woodbine Mile: Shirl’s Speight takes on older, Admiralty Pier adding to the pace, War of Will is a monster. Can’t wait!

  • Best Value (last minute update): #6 Admiralty Pier (10-1) The more I wrote and edited the article, the more I realized this one is the lone speed in here today with many wanting to stalk and take one run at it. The figures fit, 3rd of the layoff, should be a monster of a price for a wire-to-wire win.
  • Most Logical: #4 Starship Jubilee (4-1) Never was able to gain position in the Diana, chasing Rushing Fall and Mean Mary wide the whole way round. Today gets the third start off the layoff and should be at peak performance. The pace and trip sets up nicely, grab the rail in the second flight, let the speeds go, hope for no traffic closing down the lane. Value line for this one sits at 5/2. Let’s get the hometown hero the victory!
  • Beatable Favorite: War of Will (2-1 but expect 3/2) Going back to watching the latest replay at Keeneland, it didn’t get me excited to back this one at a short price. Got arguably the best trip other than Parlor, so the figure earned might be a touch overstated. We’re going to wait and see if that monster of a horse can get the job done without our investment.

Race 10: Woodbine Cares Stakes 5f (T)

Two year olds have such volatility, spread in horizontals if needed.

  • Most Logical: #7 Illegal Smile (8/5 but expect 1-1 with Ward’s 2 y/o): Clear speed on paper per the TimeForm US figures. This should be a dead send and see if they can catch at the 5f distance. Considering there’s 3 prior starts to set the foundation, the horse looks to stand well above the bunch.
  • Best Value: #1 Silent Mamba (20-1) Has shown the ability to send early. Gets the cut back today and a surface switch. If can break cleanly and sends, maybe wires the filed. Value line is firm at 20-1.

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